Know Your Risk Podcast

June 24, 2026 - The war happened. The oil was lost. And yet the market is acting as if none of it ever occurred. Zach and Chase conduct a rare real-time postmortem on one of their biggest macro trades, discussing what they got wrong, what they got right, and why price action can sometimes move far away from underlying fundamentals. They explore oil markets, trader positioning, risk management, peace-deal expectations, and the lessons investors should take away when markets refuse to behave the way the data says they should.

June 22, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the dramatic collapse in SpaceX shares, why valuation still matters, and how this market cycle may have conditioned investors to ignore risk. They break down IPO speculation, AI-era valuations, bond yields, Mag 7 weakness, global markets, and why some of today's most popular investment narratives could be teaching exactly the wrong lessons.

June 17, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down Kevin Warsh's first day as Fed Chair, the sharp move in bond yields, and what a less predictable Federal Reserve could mean for investors. They discuss forward guidance, market volatility, wealth inequality, AI's long-term economic impact, oil markets, and why some of the biggest opportunities often emerge when markets are forced to stand on their own.

June 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the newly announced Middle East deal, what sanctions relief could mean for Iran, and why the market's reaction may not match the underlying oil math. They discuss inventory losses, the true cost of reopening the Strait, inflation risks, SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, record equity issuance, and why a growing wall of stock supply could become a major headwind for markets.

May 27, 2026 - Zach goes solo to break down why the current energy setup may be one of the clearest value-with-a-catalyst opportunities he’s seen since the GameStop short squeeze and the 2021–2022 energy trade. He explains why investors continue crowding into AI and semiconductor momentum while largely ignoring what he believes are historically undervalued energy producers sitting in front of a major supply shortage. Zach also discusses oil inventories, SPR math, China’s strategic reserves, valuation discipline, value investing psychology, and why the best trades often feel the hardest to own in real time.

May 22, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why the global energy situation may be entering a far more dangerous phase even as markets continue betting on a clean resolution. They break down the growing tension around the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, why repeated “jawboning” around oil prices may actually signal deeper concern from policymakers, and how a prolonged supply shock could bleed into inflation expectations, agriculture, freight, and global growth. They also discuss fertilizer markets, chemical companies, bond yields, housing affordability, Fed policy, and why decades of falling interest rates may have fundamentally distorted the global economy.

May 20, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets continue reacting to every new “imminent peace” headline even as the underlying energy and inflation pressures keep worsening beneath the surface. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why oil markets may still be dramatically underpricing future shortages, how SPR releases are masking deeper inventory problems, and why rising bond yields may be the real warning sign investors should be watching. They also discuss inflation risks, housing pressure, Nvidia earnings, semiconductor valuations, and why policymakers may be running out of realistic options.

May 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why energy markets may be far closer to a breaking point than investors realize as global inventories continue tightening and policymakers scramble to manage the fallout. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why SPR drawdowns and U.S. exports may be masking deeper shortages, how China is positioning itself strategically, and why markets still appear dangerously complacent about inflation and supply risks. They also discuss rising bond yields, housing pressure, AI infrastructure spending, and why the next phase of this cycle could look very different from the last decade.