Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Colonel Towner-Watkins for part 8 of the CIA Files. This week we were talking about the Korean War, and why the unit we got in high school history class was so short. We covered the transition from a Japanese colony before WWII, to the split country that we have today. As you can imagine, there was a false flag to start the Korean War, US involvement and political interference, and the story we were taught is nowhere close to the actual events. We also talked a little bit about the parallels between the Korean War and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia today, and the changing media strategy that more and more people are waking up to. You can find the Colonel on Twitter, Rumble, YouTube, and Substack.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Cameron Macgregor on the podcast for the first time. We had a great conversation about recent events in the Middle East, the genesis of the conflict, and the system of influence over foreign policy that is breaking down. We also talked about Europe, financial markets, and the various problems facing Western society. We will be doing a follow up conversation soon, and I’m already looking forward to it. You can find Cameron on YouTube, Substack, and Instagram. Podcast Summary* The genesis of the conflict in the Middle East, and the influence of the Zionist lobby on US foreign policy.* A shifting Overton Window among the broader population and how it contrasts with the Zionist influence on our political class.* Why he sees a succession to the current system on the horizon, and why the new sovereign will look different.* The cultural rot in the system and why it doesn’t work anymore.* His view on inflation, the Fed and the Treasury, and the future for gold and bitcoin.* The changes in the market over the last several decades and the divergence between paper markets and physical markets. * Why he doesn’t think a CBDC would be successful in the US.* His thoughts on Europe, and why they are in dire straits politically and economically.* How group identity and ethnos shapes a culture and the social contract.* Why he sees a mass movement coming soon, and the costs of the demographic changes.* How the lack of elite turnover has prevented Trump from implementing pieces of his agenda, including remigration.* Why the lack of unique sovereignty makes the social contract invalid. * Book Recommendations: The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon, End Times by Peter Turchin, The Crowd by Gustav Le Bon & Grapes of Wrath by John Steinbeck.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mike Farris back on the podcast to talk about everything going on these days. We talked about the nuances of podcasting, what’s going on in markets and the economy, the state of the US, and a bunch of other topics. Mike has one of the best podcasts out there, so you should definitely go check his stuff out. You can find him on Twitter, YouTube, and all of the main podcast apps. If you want to get his podcasts early and ad-free, you can follow him on his Substack. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Thursday I had Matt Warder of The Coal Trader back on the podcast to give us an update on everything going on with coal. We also talked about the Strait of Hormuz, the various ripples in supply chains and the general macro environment, and the impacts of AI on small business and other parts of the corporate world. For anyone interested in commodities and coal specifically, it’s a must listen. You can find The Coal Trader Substack below, but he’s also on Twitter.Podcast Summary* An overview of thermal and met coal markets, and how recent events put a floor under the different price benchmarks. * The inflationary setup that is in the pipeline for the back half of 2026. * China’s steel market, US tariffs, and how it ties in with coal prices.* The different opportunities in the coal sector, and the Australian royalty regime that differentiates US producers from Australian producers. * Fed policy and what Warsh might do as the new chair.* Why he expects rates to head higher on a long-term basis.* The impact of AI on small business, and the strengths and weaknesses of the technology.* Book Recommendation: The Fourth Turning Is Here by Neil Howe.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Colonel Towner-Watkins back on the podcast for part 4 of our series. We got into Italy and how the CIA spent a fortune influencing the elections in 1948. This episode with set the table for getting into Operation Gladio, and you will see that the CIA playbook hasn’t changed much. We also tied things in a bit with what has been going on today with election interference, CIA operations on US soil, and other topics. You can find Colonel Towner-Watkins on Twitter and Rumble.Podcast Summary* The push from the CIA to get the Fabian socialists elected in Italy (aka Christian Democrats). * How they spent $50M (in 1948 dollars) to get the Christian Democrats elected in 1948.* The news outlets involvement in shaping the narrative here in the US, and the messaging about Soviet influence even though they had no presence there after WWII.* The various methods the CIA used to influence the election.* How they set up the Italian American Committee for Free Elections.* The differences between parapolitical warfare, paraeconomic warfare, and paramilitary warfare. * Using tax dollars as corporate welfare for large projects outside of the US. * The consistency of the CIA playbook over time, and the tendency towards becoming a cog in the machine in large bureaucracies. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mike Ariza back on the podcast, and we were joined by California Assemblyman Stan Ellis. We got an update on California’s coming oil crisis, and the problems that are fast approaching with no imports on the way. It might provide Trump with an opportunity to come in and fix things, but they believe it would be a temporary fix. If you want a breakdown of what is happening and what is on the horizon for California and other surrounding states as far as energy supply chains, you will enjoy this one. You can find Mike on Twitter, but he has also been contributing to Gas Crisis, where you can find his work and reach out to get in touch with Stan. Podcast Summary* How California could face serious problems with oil supply chains in the next couple months.* How CARB has reached the point of diminishing returns.* The problems that California faces with no more imports of crude and products on the way. * What all this means for the military and the bases in California, Nevada, and Arizona. * How the average legislator is disconnected from the reality of supply chains and the real world. * The potential solutions to the problem, and how quickly they could be implemented.* How Trump has an opportunity to come in and fix things, and why it might only be a temporary fix. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dylan Marrello (Raging Bull Investments) back on the podcast. We talked about a bunch of different things, and listeners will either come away with food for thought on the path of the US and markets or some new investment ideas to dig into. We talked about several individual ideas, but my favorite part was the philosophical discussion about the actual purpose of financial markets and how far we have deviated from that. You can find Dylan at Marrello Capital and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The S&P continuing to run, and how narratives, vibes, and other short term drivers move markets. * The increasing volatility based on short term investors, leverage in the system, and the lack of fundamental investors. * Why he doesn’t prioritize macro over the individual ideas in his investing process.* How Miami International $MIAX benefits from increased trading volumes and volatility. * The hyperfinancialization of markets, and the nihilism involved with sports betting and prediction markets.* How the function of markets has deviated from the original purpose, and where that might lead in the coming years.* The incentives (or lack thereof) for new businesses to go public. * How recent moves in Playboy $PLBY show the short term thinking from investors.* Recent developments with Turning Point Brands $TPB , and why nicotine is one of the greatest businesses of all time. * How investors that don’t have experience operating a business or the ability to understand the complexities of running a business often miss the big picture when it comes to stocks.* How AI and the data center buildout interacts with the commodities cycle, and why he still likes offshore oil services. * Book Recommendation: The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I have Vince Lanci back on the podcast for an update on precious metals, but we also took a detour into current events, geopolitics, and the future of the US. We talked about why copper is leading metals higher, why Europe is the odd man out, and how Chaos Americana is shaking up the geopolitical chessboard. You can find Vince on Twitter and his work at GoldFix. Podcast Summary* Why silver is perking up, and why copper is leading the charge lately.* Why gold is setting up to follow silver higher.* How oil, the FIFA World Cup, and the 250th Anniversary are setting up a stagflationary environment. * Platinum also following the path of silver.* The continued bifurcation of financial markets. * Why the UAE leaving OPEC is the first domino to fall in the beginning of the end of OPEC, and what it means for the petrodollar.* Why the status quo is going to change in the next month with China.* Europe as the odd man out, the problems they need to address, and the changes that need to happen with their welfare spending.* South America’s role in the in the reshuffling of the global trade system.* Why things are going to change and deals will be renegotiated after Trump is done in 2028. * How the left captured the bureaucracy over the last couple decades.* Why the US is trending towards an authoritarian system.* How equities and bonds will react over the next several years. * Book Recommendation: Andrew Jackson by H.W. Brands.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe