"Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It" by mabramov

About this episode

The episode discusses the overrated nature of forecasting and the need to stop funding it within the effective altruism community.

Summary EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very useful, yet it continues to receive substantial EA funding. We should cut it off. My Experience with Forecasting For a while, I was the number one forecaster on Manifold. This lasted for about a year until I stopped just over 2 years ago. To this day, despite quitting, I’m still #8 on the platform. Additionally, I have done well on real-money...

People in this episode

Guest: mabramov

Topics covered

• forecasting
• prediction markets
• effective altruism
• rationalism
• funding
• culture

Keywords

• forecasting
• prediction markets
• effective altruism
• rationalists
• funding
• Manifold

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