Positivity isn’t always naivete

Positivity isn’t always naivete

From Macro Minutes by RBC Capital Markets

May 11, 2026 · 22 min · Season 1 · Episode 104

About this episode

This episode examines the contrasting narratives of equity and rates markets amidst rising all-time highs and geopolitical risks.

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

People in this episode

Guests: Blake Gwinn, Lori Calvasina

Topics covered

  • equity markets
  • rates markets
  • risk assets
  • Iran conflict
  • Warsh-led Fed
  • market volatility
  • investor positioning

Keywords

  • equity markets
  • rates markets
  • Iran conflict
  • Warsh-led Fed
  • market volatility
  • investor positioning
  • risk assets

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: RBC Capital Markets

Places: Iran

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