Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices.We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.While we wait, we look at the markets and shake our heads – desensitised feels like an apt description. US equity markets are still taking off. It's like the war isn't even happening.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse.Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. We speculate over the length of the conflict and already, we are looking to 2027 for an economic recovery – it feels like this year is a bust.And inflation has us talking about demand destruction, the soft economy and labour market. We have the immediate impact on prices, that causes a spike in inflation, but we don’t think that rate hikes are part of the story for this year.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re sitting down to talk about the current events in the Middle East. (And hope that nothing we say becomes (too) dated in the 48-hours it takes us to hit publish on the episode.) The main point of discussion being the move higher we’ve seen in wholesale rates recently. We reference an upcoming speech from Governor Breman throughout the episode which we’ve now heard and reflected on. And you can find our take on the speech here. But over all the speech emphasised the need to take time to assess. So immediate hikes (as priced in wholesale rates) are highly unlikely. We also discuss a bit on last week's GDP numbers and the risks for growth ahead. It’s not a special guest episode, but you will notice a new face this week. We welcome Alexandra to the kiwi economics team & podcast. And we look forward to her sharing some labour market expertise in future episodes. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights ⁠here⁠. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We need to talk… about the war in the Middle East and the impacts on the global and Kiwi economy. Shipping traffic remains at a standstill at one of the world’s most strategically important oil choke points. And to no surprise, we’ve seen a massive spike in oil prices throughout the last week. With such disruptions, a near term lift in global and kiwi inflations is all but a done deal.But central banks are trained to look through near term noise. And what’s key here is that the downside risks to global and Kiwi growth majorly outweigh the upside inflation risks. We disagree with the talks of earlier rate hikes in response to such events. The weakening growth outlook simply matters more.Ultimately, we know that a rapid increase in oil prices acts like a tax on the consumer, simply straining weak household budgets further. And it’s not fair. The lift in petrol is going to hurt lower income households much more than higher income households. Meanwhile for many businesses, the conflict brings just another spanner in the works with a fresh wave of uncertainty. And under an already fragile demand environment, there will be pressure on margins as many businesses struggle to pass on higher costs. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a bit of a mix and match episode this week. We start with discussing the ugly move higher across inflation expectations. Then switch to the latest stats on the PMI and PSI activity indicators. And later end up talking about one of, if not the biggest challenges facing the Kiwi economy: an aging population. An aging population certainly isn’t a new problem. We even joke on the podcast about a note Jarrod wrote 10 years ago on the topic and how he could dust it off and change the publishing date to today and it would all still be perfectly relevant. More importantly though, an aging population is certainly not a future issue either. Treasury predicts that in just 5 years’ time, close to a quarter of all tax revenue will go to pensions alone if nothing changes. That’s a huge share of funding and takes away from other areas that badly need funding too. Lifting the retirement age, increasing KiwiSaver contributions, and making them compulsory are all part of the toolkit to tackle the issue. But so is migration. It’s the fountain of youth as Jarrod first wrote ten years ago. So fittingly, we end with a chat about the latest migration figures and where to next from here. PS: You can check out Jarrod’s demographic note from early 2017, which has truly stood the test of time, here: https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/85722/cbas-director-interest-rate-strategy-says-demography-destiny-interest-rates-immigration Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the next US Fed chair has removed much of the fear within markets around diminished Fed independence. Markets are still digesting the news of Trump’s pick for Fed chair. Warsh has a reputation as a monetary hawk. And despite recently supporting lower near-term rates, markets are picking that he may return to his hawkish roots. Especially because of his strong advocacy for shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Tune in as we discuss our thoughts on quantitative tightening, the anti-trump trade, yield curves, and the diversification out of US assets. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale rates following the RBNZ’s messaging misstep in November.Beyond Kiwi growth, we also discuss the outlook for housing, inflation, the labour market and migration for next year and beyond. Tune in to see what the future has in store. Additionally check out our full Outlook note here.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026.After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RBNZ’S decision, from confidence to consumer spending, supports as much. And against the backdrop of an upbeat hawkish RBNZ, we’ve seen a big move in markets. Wholesale rates, particularly the 2yr swap rate has ratcheted 30bps higher following last week's decision. And we’ve seen the Kiwi pop back to a 57c handle.Tune in as we break down all the details from the vote, tone, and OCR track, plus the market reaction and what it all means for the outlook.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens of Stats NZ’s Household Living-Costs Price Index, which breaks down inflation across 13 different demographic groups, offering a more detailed view of inflation experiences across Kiwi households. And here’s where it gets interesting, because inflation is hurting some more than others. It's unfair. Households that spend the least are now facing the highest inflation. Followed closely by retirees and beneficiaries. Meanwhile, high-spending and high-income households are seeing much smaller increases in living costs. It’s a reversal of what we saw during the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. And it all comes down to interest rates. Tune in as we unpack the numbers and what it means for Kiwi households. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve taken Markets, Mystics, & Mayhem on the road!In this episode, we’re live at DSL Logistics and joined by CEO John Widdows and COO Aaron Hobbs. We had the privilege of touring their warehouses. And we got the the inside scoop on how cutting-edge robotics have transformed their Kiwi business.As per the title of the episode, the team at DSL are unlocking efficiency and boosting productivity one robot at a time. Their tabletop sortation robotic solution to packing and processing is one-of-a-kind in New Zealand. And it’s delivering real results, from lower costs to improved reliability. And it’s opening up the door to further automation. In the fast-moving world of e-commerce, the tech positions the DSL team well to respond to growing customer demands.We also dive into how the current economic cycle has impacted DSL. We know first-hand from our own Kiwibank data, that retail has faced acute pressure over the past two tough years. The cost of living has climbed, stretching household budgets. Our conversation with DSL confirms all this. But with further cuts to interest rates and the festive season around the corner, the outlook for retail is optimistic.It doesn’t end there though. We also chat through the impact of tariffs (or lack thereof), regional differences, and even reminisce on the scramble to secure warehousing space during Covid. It’s a jam-packed episode you don’t want to miss! Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week, Elliot Smith, Kiwibank’s Chief Customer Officer – Business, joins us to unpack the mood across Kiwi businesses. We're diving into the impact of the RBNZ’s circuit-breaking 50bps rate cut. As Elliot puts it, the move feels like the RBNZ is finally hearing the struggles of Kiwi businesses. But while there’s been a sense of relief, caution still lingers. Businesses are starting to feel like it’s time to take action, but hesitancy remains. Amid tough operating and financial conditions, the inaction around expansion decisions have been an ongoing theme. However, with monetary policy finally at stimulatory settings, the environment is becoming more conducive to growth. Heading into the new year, conditions are ripening for momentum to build. We also discuss the performance of the business bank and the current lending landscape. It’s more competitive than when Elliot last joined us, but Kiwibank continues to play an outsized role. Plus, Elliot sheds light on Kiwibank’s startup+ pilot programme with Ministry of Awesome, designed to support innovative businesses that are harder to collateralize. It’s all about opening doors, backing good ideas, and building strong businesses that aren’t tied to the property cycle.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? because it has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering. So, in the wise words of Nike, “Just do it” A year on from the deep and destructive recession we were in in 2024, the Kiwi economy has slammed back into reverse. The GDP numbers for the June quarter were far worse than anyone had expected and proved once again that the RBNZ has not yet delivered the appropriate monetary policy setting. Weakness remains broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. And over the year the economy has shrunk a further 0.6%. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. But we're not. And the weakness demands more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to delve deep into the complexities of climate change. Brendan brings a wealth of expertise, and we’re tapping into his insights on how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID. Unfortunately, recent developments, particularly those stemming from the US and the Trump administration are poised to exacerbate the crisis, painting an increasingly grim pictureWith electricity generation being a major contributor to global emissions, we spend a significant portion of the episode discussing energy. New Zealand is already ahead of the curve when it comes to renewable energy thanks to our abundance of hydro, wind, and geothermal resources. However, Brendan highlights that even with our strong renewables’ foundation, maintaining and expanding this advantage comes with its own set of challenges. We also touch on the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in New Zealand. Discussions around insurance retreat and the reclassification of flood-prone zones are becoming more pressing. And the ripple effects of what this will mean for some houses and mortgages remains front of mind. Impacts like these underscore a key theme of this week’s episode that action is needed. Both in mitigation and adaptation. Brendan shares his insights on some of the most effective strategies and solutions that can be implemented to improve economic and environmental outcomes.This is the first of a two-part episode. Next week, we’ll delve into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. So, if you’re curious about crocodiles, elephants, rhinos, and the economics behind protecting them, be sure to tune in next week!Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.