Why Australia Is Likely Facing More Rate Hikes Than Expected

Why Australia Is Likely Facing More Rate Hikes Than Expected

From Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist by Morgans Financial Limited

February 5, 2026 · 11 min

About this episode

Michael Knox discusses the likelihood of more rate hikes in Australia due to structural inflation pressures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points at its latest meeting, signalling the start of a more prolonged tightening cycle. While many economists believe the RBA will need only two more rate hikes, Michael Knox argues that this view does not account for structural inflation pressures already building within the Australian economy.His modelling and economic analysis suggest the real requirement is at least four rate hikes before inflation begins to ease.

People in this episode

Guest: Michael Knox

Topics covered

  • interest rates
  • inflation
  • economic analysis
  • Australia
  • Reserve Bank of Australia
  • monetary policy

Keywords

  • rate hikes
  • inflation
  • Reserve Bank of Australia
  • economic modelling
  • tightening cycle

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia

Places: Australia

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