Moving Markets

Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks between Japanese and US officials. Regional equities declined. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about what strong dealmaking says about the healthcare sector.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:50) - Dealmaking in the healthcare sector: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (11:28) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Against a shifting macro backdrop, markets are responding to easing geopolitical tensions following a US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling sharply and Asian equities rallying. Within China, however, a stark divergence persists: Hong Kong’s “old tech” sector has lagged, while mainland “new tech,” particularly AI infrastructure, continues to attract strong inflows and outperform. In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about China’s uneven market outlook. They discuss the prospects for a rebound in Hong Kong internet stocks, the sustainability of the AI rally and signs of froth, alongside liquidity risks from IPO activity and the outlook for gold amid shifting oil and interest rate dynamics. This episode was originally recorded on 16 June 2026.(00:30) - The old and new tech divide in China (01:45) - Will Hong Kong internet stocks see a rebound? (03:25) - Why is there a lack of stimulus this time? (07:05) - A “K-shaped” economy (07:40) - A strong run in A-share tech — is the AI rally getting frothy? (15:48) - The liquidity impact of the IPO glut (20:27) - Where might gold be headed?

European equities extended their upward momentum, while US markets faced selling pressure after the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish tone, pushing Treasury yields higher. Yet, sentiment later shifted again as news of a signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran lifted Asian markets and drove US equity futures firmly into positive territory. In today’s episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explores how easing geopolitical tensions could reshape the outlook for global energy markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:48) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sharply, while gold moved higher amid softer rate expectations and a weaker dollar. Overnight, central banks remained in focus, with the Bank of Japan delivering its first rate hike since 1995, while weak macro data out of China reinforced concerns about slowing domestic demand. Today, we were joined by Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research, who unpacked the intensifying price war among leading AI model providers.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - Token pricing war: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (12:08) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026? Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year market outlook. The conversation dissects the shift from a savings glut to a savings grab, and focuses on why selectivity and capital discipline are paramount. Mark and Christian explain the outlook for equities and fixed income, investigating not just sectors but also regions of interest, together with the case for investment grade and emerging market debt, and the ongoing impact of AI and clean energy themes. They also review the prospects for commodities, gold, and currencies as investors position themselves for the remainder of the year.(00:00) - Introduction and agenda (00:55) - From a ‘savings glut’ to a ‘savings grab’ (02:16) - Be selective amidst capital expenditure opportunities (03:03) - Bond yields, duration, and global opportunities (05:33) - Credit quality and emerging market debt (06:49) - US vs. non-US markets (08:07) - European equity dynamics (08:59) - AI, Asia, and regional drivers (10:14) - Cloud computing, AI, clean energy (11:24) - Commodities: Super shock vs. super cycle (12:53) - Gold outlook (14:04) - US dollar, yen, and commodity currencies (15:08) - Key takeaways, closing remarks and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:16) - Update on gold: Carsten Menke. Head of Next Generation Research, Product & Investment Content (09:42) - ECB expectations & investment impact: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European equities closed off their lows as oil reversed most of its early 5% gain after easing Middle East tensions, leaving Brent near USD 94. Weak German factory orders weighed on sentiment, while stocks diverged, with Zealand Pharma down 23% and Banca Monte dei Paschi up 13% on takeover news. In the US, technology led gains as chip stocks rebounded, though sentiment softened after Apple’s developer conference. Strong demand for SpaceX’s IPO and OpenAI’s filing point to a solid pipeline. Asian markets followed the tech rebound, led by Korea and Japan, while Hong Kong lagged and China reported stronger-than-expected trade data. Biotech deal activity remained strong, while inflation concerns kept rate hike expectations elevated, with muted moves in precious metals and FX. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, joined to discuss rising opposition to data centres in the US, and what it could mean for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:42) - Growing data centre opposition: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (10:03) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The role of a Chief Investment Officer is multifaceted – acting as both the guardian and the architect of a company’s investment process, and preventing people from making mistakes that might destroy value. A key requisite for the job is the ability to stay calm amid the panic when a global crisis hits.In this special edition of The View Beyond, produced jointly with the World Economic Forum's Radio Davos, Bernadette Anderko and WEF Editor Robin Pomeroy sit down with Julius Baer's Group CIO Yves Bonzon to explore the history and nature of recent crises. Yves has spent more than three decades steering portfolios through other people's worst weeks: the crash of '87, the Asian crisis 10 years later, 2008’s Global Financial Crisis, COVID, the tariff wars, and now of course the war in Iran. He explains why each crisis provides opportunities to make a difference. After all, in the face of a crisis, a CIO must decide: is history repeating itself, or is a new paradigm emerging?(00:00) - Introduction: A special joint episode from Julius Baer and Radio Davos (02:02) - Crisis navigation: Every crisis is different (03:30) - Exogenous vs. endogenous shocks (06:48) - Oil, markets, and resilience (11:31) - Looking back to the financial crisis of 2008 (13:50) - Crises are opportunities to make a difference (16:25) - Balancing risk mitigation and opportunity (20:26) - Liquidity events in turbulent times (22:32) - Private markets vs. public markets (23:34) - When does a crisis become a crisis? (29:29) - How crises and responses have evolved since the 1980s (33:04) - Emotional decisions and the cost of anchoring (35:18) - Education, discipline, and the importance of process (38:47) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.Radio Davos is the flagship weekly podcast from the World Economic Forum. Get it on any podcast app:https://pod.link/1504682164. Find all Forum podcasts at wef.ch/podcasts and YouTube(https://www.youtube.com/@wef/podcasts).

The S&P 500 snapped its nine-day winning streak yesterday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East dented risk sentiment, and momentum in the AI-driven rally eased. At the same time, bond yields pushed higher on the back of resilient labour market data, reigniting concerns that inflation pressures may persist. In today’s episode, our Group CIO Yves Bonzon shares his latest perspectives on the market backdrop, while Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, explains why he expects oil prices to trend lower from here.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:42) - Latest market perspectives: Yves Bonzon, Group CIO (14:15) - An update on oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (19:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets were mixed yesterday, with Middle East tensions driving a sharp rise in oil and weighing on sentiment. European equities edged lower, while all three major US indices reached fresh highs, supported by strong momentum in AI-linked names. Macro data showed a divided backdrop — resilient manufacturing in Asia, slowing growth and rising cost pressures in the Eurozone, modest but improving trends in Switzerland, and solid momentum in the US. Today, we were joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provided a deep-dive into cybersecurity, highlighting the sector’s remarkable rebound and why it is becoming increasingly mission critical, even more so in the age of AI.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:58) - What's behind the cybersecurity rebound?: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation (10:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After a period of relative calm, gold has re-emerged as a focal point for investors amid geopolitics, shifting central bank strategies, and evolving global demand. How should investors interpret gold’s recent volatility, and what does the outlook hold as we move through 2026?In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets:The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the drivers behind gold’s remarkable run, the impact of central bank activity, and the changing dynamics of investment demand. The conversation covers gold’s behaviour during recent global shocks, the significance of central bank buying (and selling), the evolving role of ETFs, and the influence of Asian and Indian markets. The episode concludes with an outlook for gold through the remainder of 2026, highlighting both the structural and cyclical forces at play.(00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Lessons from recent events (03:08) - The role of geopolitics in gold’s long-term performance (04:15) - Central bank buying (06:16) - A multipolar world and central bank strategies (07:10) - Investment demand and the shifting role of ETFs (09:15) - US monetary policy (10:45) - Trading trends in the US and China (12:51) - China’s investment flows and retail participation (13:44) - India’s import tax hike and its impact on gold demand (15:57) - Outlook for gold in 2026 (18:28) - Closing remarks and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices are swinging on every twist in the Middle East, while AI continues to dominate global markets. Europe’s stocks are under pressure from high energy costs, but in the US, AI momentum is driving major indices to fresh record highs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, dives into copper, and why electrification is set to shape markets for years to come.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:12) - Copper market update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:29) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.