NAB Morning Call

Thursday 25th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are tumbling, with Brent crude hitting a fresh low near $73 a barrel,, taking significant pressure off global inflation hedges and pushing 10 year Treasury yields down 9 basis points. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld look at how this commodity slide is reshaping central bank expectations, highlighted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Squawk Box interview where he likened the current tech-driven productivity wave to Alan Greenspan’s 1997 "one tap on the brakes" template, suggesting the Fed may only need one more rate hike, together with his dislike of the Fed's dot plot altogether. Closer to home, attention wraps firmly around yesterday’s Australian CPI print, which cooled on the headline thanks to falling pump prices; however, Sally flags that a peek under the hood reveals a stickier story, with trimmed-mean inflation tracking at 3.6% as local homebuilders and restaurants pass mounting material and input costs on to consumers. Aussie employment data will be watched keenly to see whether last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was a one-off, but isn’t expected to change the RBA’s outlook for interest rates. On that, ‘they’re done’ says Sally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou might expect that as oil prices fall and the potential for economic growth resumes, big tech would be riding the wave. But, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains today, US share indices have been driven down by two falls in two giants – SpaceX is own over 12% and Alphabet lost 6% at one stage, each for very different reasons. Meanwhile the resignation of the UK Prime Minister barely registered on markets. Canadian inflation ticked up a little but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for the Bank of Canada. Today, PMIs for Australia, Japan, the Euro Area, the UK and the US. And a 30 second eulogy for former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, who died yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Is the Australian property market running out of puff, or are we just seeing the first ripples of a dramatic regulatory shake-up? Phil sits down with Cotality’s head of Australian research, Gerard Burg, to dig into whether the federal government’s newly minted tax overhauls for established dwellings are actively driving investors away. They break down a highly unusual shift in local listings where properties are sitting on the market far longer, signaling a slow rebalancing of supply and demand that actually predates the budget. From the roaring lifestyle market in Hobart to stark upper-quartile property slides in Sydney, this episode uncovers why first-home buyers are getting squeezed the hardest by compounding RBA interest rate hikes. Plus, they explore a looming structural nightmare: why the massive 36% post-pandemic spike in construction costs and the approaching 2032 Brisbane Olympics are set to derail the government’s ambitious target of building 1.2 million homes. Tune in to find out if the golden era of hands-off property speculation is officially behind us, and whether, as a positive, tax changes will finally push Aussie wealth into more productive areas of the economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA concise and hawkish Federal Reserve decision has shifted global desks. Phil unpacks Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting with NAB’s Gavin Friend. It delivered an unyielding 12-0 vote to hold rates steady alongside a razor-thin official statement that raised inflation forecasts and explicitly prioritised price stability. This refusal to offer traditional forward guidance pushed bond yields higher and sparked choppy swings across the Nasdaq, all while a surprise 0.9% surge in U.S. retail sales proved the American consumer is out shopping. Meanwhile the UK awaits employment data and a high-stakes by-election. Then there’s that MoU with the signing-ceremony a day away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil Dobbie and NAB’s Taylor Nugent check the pulse of a global market that remains suspended in a cautious holding pattern. Friday’s wave of optimism—which pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs and drove Brent crude down near the $90-a-barrel mark—has run into a wall of silence following a highly anticipated White House meeting on a 60-day Gulf ceasefire. With the administration maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz must open unconditionally and toll-free, and hints that the U.S. will remain patient for a "good deal," traders are left wondering if a lack of concrete updates will cause oil prices to drift higher once again. This geopolitical stalemate completely overshadowed a significant batch of central bank commentary and data: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that weak economic growth may prevent energy-driven inflation from feeding into wages, while early European CPI indicators revealed surprising downward price pressures, with headline prices in Germany dropping 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, despite a temporary water fee waiver softening Tokyo's core CPI, Taylor notes that Japan's strong industrial production and tight labour market mean there is still nothing to stand in the way of the Bank of Japan delivering another interest rate hike at its June meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the latest reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have finalized a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. This crucial step, which would see the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopen toll-free, now reportedly just needs a nod from the US President activate, but its obviously more complicated than that. This glimmer of diplomatic progress pushed Brent crude down below $94 a barrel, completely overshadowing a mixed bag of U.S. economic data. While the annual core PCE deflator held sticky at 3.3%, annualized Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% and corporate profits took a surprise 0.4% squeeze. Despite cooling growth and comments from the Fed's John Williams that policy could go either way, Wall Street brushed off the headwinds, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDespite ongoing optimism around a potential peace deal, the U.S. literally "fired up" tensions by launching missile strikes against targets in southern Iran and mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. That sent Brent Crude prices highr, back over $100, whilst WTI fell. It was a session filled with divisions: U.S. Treasury yields fell 6 basis points and tech stocks rallied, while European yields climbed and its major indices retreated. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its more to do with who’s been on holiday on Monday rather than any significant geographic divide. Today the focus will be on Australia’s CPI and a speech by the RBA’s Carolyn Hewson. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.