NAB Morning Call

Monday 19th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this morning’s volatile backdrop for global financial markets, driven by tech sentiment, geopolitical pivots, and domestic unrest. Equity markets ended the week under pressure, led by a 2.1% drop in the Nasdaq on Friday as investors focused on the escalating debt and borrowing costs associated with the massive AI data center build-out, with firms like CoreWeave at the center of credit stress. Geopolitical uncertainty flared after President Trump moved to lift select sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil and gas, prompting Ukraine to step up retaliatory drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a major attack on the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Meanwhile, market sentiment across Europe is being tested by widespread student and public-sector protests in France over severe budget cuts and austerity proposals, threatening broader sovereign debt spreads. Looking ahead, investors face a busy week of Q3 earnings reports, flash PMIs, and critical Chinese GDP and activity data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil after a turbulent 24 hours across global and domestic markets. Investors pulled capital out of the tech sector amid rising concerns over AI-related corporate debt and capital spending, driving a safe-haven rally into US Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields down, well below the post-CPI highs. On the domestic front, the Australian dollar dropped sharply below 69.2 US cents after September employment data showed a net fall of 39,000 jobs and an unemployment rate edging up to 4.7%. Meanwhile, US producer price inflation surprised to the upside with a 1.3% monthly surge, reinforcing expectations of persistent cost pressures ahead of scheduled remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes firmly on the table. Globally, equity markets traded softer as the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook flagged rising inflation forecasts and elevated bond yields as primary systemic risks, while US markets digested a mixed bag of Q3 bank earnings ahead of crucial CPI data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA fresh escalation of Middle East conflict is overshadowing energy markets after Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport, clashing with President Trump's announced US-Russia diesel agreement and reported Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack the competing market drivers. They analyze the Friday rebound in global equities and lower bond yields, the latest CFTC positioning data showing growing Euro short positions, and the week ahead—highlighting US CPI, Australian labor force data, the RBA minutes, and the start of Q3 bank earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRisk-off sentiment dominated global markets as geopolitical tensions flared in the Persian Gulf. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss a turbulent session sparked by an attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, which sent Brent crude surging toward $104 a barrel alongside hurricane-related production cut. Energy cost spikes and tech sector drags—amplified by OpenAI revenue concerns and potential US visa restrictions—weighed heavily on equities. Meanwhile, what will hawkish signals from Fed Governor Christopher Waller mean for rate expectations? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P 500 has notched its first fresh all-time high since August, supported by optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season and steadying US Treasury yields. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil is joined by NAB’s Gavin Friend to dissect the market moves—starting with a sharp pullback in French bond yields after far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen pledged a "golden rule" deficit reduction plan to stabilize public finances. The pair also explore the broader macro drivers, including crude oil holding below $100/bbl despite Middle East supply bottlenecks, hawkish inflation warnings from Fed officials, German factory order slumps, and a widening US trade deficit ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd October 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As artificial intelligence rapidly transforms from a speculative tech trend into the primary driver of global market returns, how are institutional investors actually positioning their capital for the road ahead? This Phil Dobbie sits down with Damien Webb, Chief Investment Officer for Brighter Super, fresh off an insightful trip to Silicon Valley meeting with frontier AI labs, quantum computing founders, and top academic minds.Damien shares why his boots-on-the-ground experience left him overwhelmingly optimistic about the tech supercycle—and why superannuation funds can't afford to sit on the sidelines. From the soaring commodity demand for copper and energy infrastructure to revolutionary medical breakthroughs in GLP-1 drugs and cancer treatments, how do institutional investors balance high-valuation risks against transformative upside? Is the ongoing surge in global bond yields the ultimate reality check for tech balance sheets? Tune in for a fascinating dive into portfolio construction, private equity opportunities, and what riding in an autonomous Waymo car reveals about our economic future! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal financial markets are navigating a sharp divergence between the US and Europe, driven entirely by conflicting inflation trends. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack why resilient US economic data, cooler-than-expected Core PCE prints, and upward GDP revisions are supporting Wall Street, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.30%. In contrast, hot European inflation prints across Germany and France are weighing on sentiment and lifting ECB rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has slipped below 69.5 US cents following softer-than-forecast domestic inflation data, which has led markets to tone down expectations for back-to-back RBA rate hikes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th September 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs crude oil holds above $105 a barrel and US 10-year Treasury yields surge to 5.24%, markets are grappling with how much further central banks can push policy rates to restrain persistent inflation. On today’s podcast Phil talks with NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Sally notes that while US growth resilience and structural Capex demand are driving global yields higher, Australia’s cooling PMIs and softening business survey data suggest the RBA is operating in a vastly different cyclical environment than its peers. The pair also examine Nvidia’s historic $150 billion share buyback, the US-China tariff cuts and key global data reads including US JOLTS and Canadian GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The hipsters live inside the goat’s cheese curtain before they start a family and move to the burbs in search of their quarter acre block. That’s the traditional pattern of life in Australia, but demographer Bernard Salt, from the Demographics Group, says major changes are afoot. Fertility rates of younger people are falling faster than expected, and people are living longer than forecast. It’s not an Australia-only phenomenon of course, but it brings forward the peak-human horizon. This week Bernard joins Phil to discuss how the changes are good news for Australia, but only if we have a plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th September 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar and global bond yields have risen sharply. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a bit part of this was stronger than expected PMIs, particularly for the US. It shows demand isn’t falling, whilst oil supplies remain a concern. So much of a concern that the US is limiting diesel exports to shore-up its domestic supplies. The US is attempting to bring down longer dated yields with a $6 billion buyback today. Phil asks, if it didn’t work last time, what will be different now? Australian labour market data is out later today, but the path for the RBA already seems to be set. And President Xi sets foot in the US today; an extension to the moratorium on tariffs is the best that can be hoped for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil ticked below $99 momentarily overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says reports of more traffic through the Strait have helped, along with a comment from the US president that he wlll ‘probably’ talk with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN Assembly this week/ But oil doesn’t want to stay below 100. Falling oil prices have helped bring down European bond yields. In a quiet session data wise there’s been much focus on comments from Chicago Fed chair Austan Goolsbee who suggested that growth might take a hit in the fight to control inflation. Expect Michelle Bullockto deliver similar messaging today in her fireside chat at the CEDA event at the Fullerton hotel in Sydney this lunchtime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.With the US midterm elections looming and the threat of Republican losses hanging over Capitol Hill, how much should investors actually care about a potential shift in congressional power? This weekend on the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab and host of the Washington Wise podcast, to break down the realistic market fallout of an impending balance-of-power shakeup. Michael explains why history points to Democrats likely flipping the House while the Senate hangs on a knife-edge, but cautions against overestimating the political noise: historically, Wall Street doesn't care who wins—it simply rallies once the uncertainty is over and gridlock prevents policy overreach. With stubborn inflation, Middle East supply shocks keeping gas prices high, Fed rate hikes, and corporate debt from the AI boom dominating the landscape, does the battle for Capitol Hill even matter to the bottom line, or has the market already learned to shrug off Washington's daily drama? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.