Onramp Bitcoin Media

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian go signal versus noise with Bitcoin back near $58K and roughly 50% off its all-time high. They make the deep value case against the largest Bitcoin ETF outflows in over two years, arguing the selling is retail capitulation and an AI rotation trade rather than a true institutional exit. They explain why the 200-week moving average is historically the time to accumulate and why DCA beats chasing performance. They break down Saylor's stretch (STRC) rescue plan, X Money's 6% yield launch, gold's quiet underallocation, and Gavin Newsom's billionaire tax. They close on America 250 and Bitcoin as the real No Kings protest.---🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#gen..📩 Schedule a consultation: https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tltThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeThe guys open on the Bloomberg "crypto's institutional buyers retreat" headline and a record month of roughly $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows, the largest since the funds went live over two years ago, and argue it is mostly retail capitulation plus an AI rotation into names like Nvidia and Broadcom rather than a true institutional exit. They make the deep value case: Bitcoin near $58K and about 50% off the 2025 peak of $126K, the 200-week moving average as a historic accumulation zone, and a viral River retrace chart that some read as bearish but they frame as a reason to DCA and leg in. The signal-versus-noise segment digs into Strategy's stretch (STRC) confidence crisis, covering Saylor's five-point plan, a dividend bumped from 11.5% to 12%, a Bitcoin monetization program willing to sell up to $1.25 billion of BTC, and Parker Lewis's note on a $1.15 billion equity raise subordinated behind $22 billion in liabilities. They unpack X Money's launch (6% yield, up to $10 million in FDIC coverage, 3% cash back, a Visa metal card), the censorship and yield-source questions it raises, and Ford rehiring 300 engineers after AI failed its quality checks. They close on gold's underallocation from the In Gold We Trust report (over 80% call gold sensible, yet allocations sit near 1%), Gavin Newsom's national billionaire's tax and the Mamdani socialist wave, and an America 250 round-the-horn that ties Thomas Jefferson's warning on banking establishments to Bitcoin as the ultimate No Kings protest.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Market Sentiment and ETF Flows02:55 - Retail vs Institutional Investors05:54 - DCA Strategies and Long-Term Conviction08:46 - The Impact of AI on Investment Dynamics12:08 - Financial Advisors and Emotional Investing15:07 - Stretch and Market Confidence17:50 - X Money and the Future of Financial Products32:39 - Exploring X Money and Financial Integration36:00 - The Role of AI in Financial Services40:01 - Gold's Place in Modern Investment Strategies45:01 - Gavin Newsom and the Call for an Economic Reset52:03 - Independence Day Reflections and Bitcoin's Role💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian go signal versus noise on the most confusing Bitcoin tape in years, with Bitcoin in the 50s and roughly 50% off its all-time high. They make the deep value case (a 5-year DCA into Bitcoin now nearly matches the S&P 500 while sitting 50% below its highs, the 200-week moving average flashing, and a gold analog that ran 750% off a similar drawdown), break down the Strategy / stretch (STRC) confidence crisis and why the whole DAT experiment increasingly looks like an objective failure, and riff on Warsh's Fed, the hyperscaler free cash flow cliff, Trump's quantum order, and Meta moving into prediction markets.---🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#gen..📩 Schedule a consultation: https://onrampbitcoin.com/consultThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeThe guys open on Philippe Laffont of Coatue admitting he no longer knows what to think about Bitcoin, and use it to frame why so many TradFi allocators get shaken out: they treat Bitcoin as just another speculative bet rather than a better money whose debasement thesis is unchanged and strengthening. They lay out the deep value case with a five-year DCA into Bitcoin roughly matching the S&P 500 even with Bitcoin 50% below its highs, Frank A. Fetter's 200-week moving average signal, and Macroscope's gold analog (down about 50% from 1974 to 1976, then up 750% from 1976 to 1980). On macro, they read Kevin Warsh's first FOMC (no dot plot, walking back forward guidance) and the Bloomberg "debasement trade is unraveling" piece as posturing and a counter-signal to accumulate. The bulk of the signal-versus-noise segment is the Strategy / stretch confidence crisis, with STRC trading near $80 (down about 20% from par), Saylor raising cash over the weekend that failed to hold the peg, shifting MNAV and Sharpe ratio math, and an estimated 80% of MSTR holders and roughly 99% of other DAT holders underwater. They close on the hyperscaler free cash flow cliff across Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle, Trump's executive order targeting a 2028 quantum computer, and Meta building a points-based prediction market to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, and the data and financial nihilism that powers it.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Introduction and Technical Difficulties02:24 - Current Sentiment on Bitcoin13:28 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment21:30 - The Role of the Federal Reserve and Economic Policy28:43 - Signal vs. Noise: Analyzing Current Market Events42:52 - The Role of Microchips in AI and Economic Strategy46:42 - Corporate Debt and Bitcoin: A Financial Conundrum49:40 - Historical Analogies: Bitcoin and Gold's Volatility52:43 - Hyperscalers and the Future of Free Cash Flow58:50 - The Interplay of Government and Corporate Economies1:01:21 - Quantum Computing and Its Implications for Bitcoin1:04:52 - Prediction Markets: The Future of Speculation and Data💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Strategy's recent sale of 32 Bitcoin came with unusual framing: Michael Saylor said the purpose was to "inoculate the markets." Glenn Cameron, Global Head of Institutional at Onramp Bitcoin, reads that word as preparation for larger Bitcoin sales ahead, walks through the STRC prospectus and the pressure points (Strategy now trading at 84% of NAV, the cash reserve cut to roughly seven months after redeeming a 0% convertible note, the board-suspendable dividend), and lands on the sharpest argument: 83% of STRC holders are retail investors sold a product marketed as "a high yield bank account" that's structurally junior equity on a volatile Bitcoin company.---🎙️ About This EpisodeGlenn Cameron, CFA, Global Head of Institutional at Onramp Bitcoin, joins Laura Shin to break down the STRC prospectus and argue that Saylor's "inoculate the markets" framing of Strategy's 32 BTC sale signals larger sales ahead. Glenn walks through the pressure points: Strategy trading at 84% of its Bitcoin value (so new equity issuance dilutes Bitcoin-per-share for existing holders), the cash reserve sitting at roughly seven months after redeeming a 0% convertible note, and STRC's board-suspendable dividend. He returns to the heart of the case: 83% of STRC holders are retail investors sold a product marketed as "a high yield bank account" that's structurally junior equity with no maturity, no FDIC protection, and no redemption right. Plus the 2028 cliff where $3.5B in convertibles become putable, the SATA-vs-STRC comparison, the "digital credits" naming critique, and why Bitmine's upcoming BMNP staking yield won't cover its cost of capital.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Welcome, sponsors, and Glenn's introduction01:04 - Risk vs uncertainty: Glenn's framework for analyzing Strategy04:07 - What 'inoculate' really means: Saylor preparing the market for bigger Bitcoin sales06:38 - Strategy below NAV: why issuing new stock now dilutes Bitcoin per share12:13 - The dilution spiral: Glenn's response to people calling Strategy criticism FUD19:37 - Strategy's last option: suspend the dividend (and what that does to retail)23:42 - The 2028 cliff: $3.5B in convertibles become putable27:30 - Why sell only 32 Bitcoin: changing the narrative for future sales30:42 - The 'digital credit' name and the Moody's analysis: how STRC is classified 100% equity35:53 - Saylor's own words: three claims that STRC is a high-yield bank account40:34 - STRC vs money markets and FDIC: what the actual product looks like44:30 - The confidence game: why MSTR needs premium-to-NAV to keep the flywheel turning48:02 - SATA vs STRC: same instrument, different coat of paint55:22 - Bitmine's BMNP: Tom Lee's ETH-backed preferred and why the wrapper is doubly flawed01:01:00 - What Glenn would advise: don't drain the cash reserve💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadConnect with Laura Shin:https://x.com/laurashinConnect with Glenn Cameron:https://x.com/GlennOnrampBTC🎧 Subscribe to Unchained for more high-signal interviews on crypto, finance, and macro:https://open.spotify.com/show/1cJrrfGY1SKBIRn5noKSAf?si=ec9517a508a34436