Onward, a Fundrise Production

Months before trade policy was on anyone's radar, Stephen Miran—now Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump—quietly published "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." In this episode, Ben and Cardiff dive into Miran’s roadmap and assess how Trump's policies in practice have diverged from Miran’s original vision.Ben and Cardiff explore three key scenarios for the future trajectory: Best Case: International dealmaking leads to a breakthrough, reducing tariffs globally, restoring trade relations, and strengthening US manufacturing sectors. Base Case: A partial rollback of tariffs prevents catastrophic damage, yet still triggers an economic slowdown, accompanied by an interim inflation shock. Worst Case: Continued tariff escalation triggers a severe recession, persistent stagflation, and prolonged economic and geopolitical turmoil. The episode concludes with "surprise scenarios" that could rejuvenate growth despite an adverse economic environment. The hosts emphasize the high stakes and overwhelming uncertainty inherent in America's current economic trajectory.For those who want to read the full, original roadmap:Stephen Miran, A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, November 2024https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf—For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Tal Kerret is the President of Silverstein Properties, the company behind the historic rebuilding of the World Trade Center in New York City, and on the board of directors of Fundrise.Tal provides an in-depth look into the challenges and triumphs associated with redeveloping this iconic site, emphasizing its immense logistical complexity, symbolic importance, and economic impact. He shares his journey from the tech industry into real estate, discussing lessons learned about innovation, risk management, and leadership. Tal also highlights the crucial role of supportive board dynamics and culture in business success, reflecting on personal experiences in venture capital and entrepreneurship. This conversation offers valuable insights into building enduring projects and resilient teams.—For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Over his 36-year career, Simon Ziff, President of Ackman-Ziff, has overseen more than $100 billion in transactions and witnessed the dramatic evolution of the real estate industry brought about by the Savings and Loan Crisis. Simon shares his journey from joining Ackman Brothers in the 1980s to seizing the opportunities created by the rise of CMBS and private equity in the 1990s. From personal anecdotes to expert insights, this episode is packed with an insider’s experience navigating market cycles.—Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

The data revolution is transforming every business in the world, and Tristan Handy sits near the center of it. Starting with a simple idea, he and his team built dbt Labs into a multi-billion-dollar tech company by understanding how technology is changing the world and what that meant for how people should change with it.This episode dives into Tristan’s journey, his thoughts about entrepreneurship, and the lessons he learned while leading one of the most central companies in the industry.From Practitioner to PioneerTristan Handy’s journey began with years of experience in data roles, culminating at RJMetrics. There, he encountered a transformative moment: the rise of Amazon Redshift, the first cloud-native data warehouse. This innovation disrupted traditional business intelligence (BI) tools and catalyzed Tristan’s realization that the future of data analytics lay in the cloud. He then launched Fishtown Analytics, a consultancy that helped startups implement cloud data systems. This endeavor ultimately gave birth to dbt (Data Build Tool), a revolutionary approach to data transformation and governance.Building the Foundations of dbtDbt wasn’t initially a product; it was a tool Tristan and his co-founder created to solve a problem that they thought needed solving. However, as people adopted and expanded its use, a community began to form. The project’s open-source nature fueled its growth, with dbt becoming a core tool for data teams worldwide. Today, over 50,000 companies use dbt in production, and it serves millions of data practitioners.Scaling the Business, Preserving the CultureThe journey from a bootstrapped consultancy to a venture-backed powerhouse worth over $4 billion wasn’t without challenges. Tristan shared insights on scaling while maintaining the culture and values that defined the company’s early days. He emphasized the importance of retaining long-tenured team members who deeply understand the product’s ethos.Lessons on Venture Capital and FoundingReflecting on the venture capital landscape, Tristan offered candid observations. While acknowledging the resources VC brings, he highlighted the inherent misalignment between founders’ visions and the VC focus on extreme outcomes. He underscored the importance of founders being intrinsically driven by the change they wish to create, cautioning against entering entrepreneurship solely for prestige.The Future of Data and AIThe conversation touched on the evolution of data, from structured rows and columns to the vast potential of unstructured data in AI applications. Tristan acknowledged the paradigm shift AI represents, predicting that while today’s AI aids discrete tasks, its true potential lies in reshaping how we create and use knowledge. However, he remains cautious, stressing that transformative change requires time and iterative progress.Nonlinear Growth and InnovationOne of the key takeaways was the importance of nonlinear growth. Both Ben and Tristan discussed how significant breakthroughs—those “10x moments”—often define the trajectory of a business. These nonlinear events, coupled with steady incremental progress, are what drive true innovation and scalability.Closing ThoughtsTristan Handy’s story is a masterclass in thoughtful entrepreneurship. From leveraging community-driven growth to balancing the demands of scaling a business, his journey offers invaluable lessons for founders and technologists alike. As dbt Labs continues to shape the data ecosystem, Tristan’s commitment to empowering practitioners and fostering innovation stands as a model for what’s possible in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.Listen to the full episode for more on Tristan’s journey, the challenges of scaling a mission-driven business, and the future of data and AI. Onward!—For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

A couple hundred people in San Francisco may be on the cusp of inventing artificial general intelligence (AGI). Yet most people are not paying close attention, are skeptical, and are certainly not in the room. Dwarkesh pulls back the curtain so that the broader public can understand what people who are actually building AI think is going to happen.The conversation begins with Dwarkesh drawing parallels between the current AI revolution and past technological shifts, like the Industrial Revolution, emphasizing the potential for AI to massively increase productivity and automate jobs. He paints a picture of a future where AI, especially artificial general intelligence, could lead to unprecedented economic growth, comparing it to the rapid transformation seen in cities like Shenzhen, China. However, Dwarkesh also cautions about the risks of an intelligence explosion, where superhuman AI could drastically alter societal dynamics.The discussion then moves into scenario planning, exploring various potential futures for AI development. In a positive scenario, AI continues to advance parabolically, boosting productivity and economic growth. Conversely, a negative scenario sees AI hitting significant challenges or diminishing returns, slowing its progress. A surprise scenario considers AI developing in unforeseen ways. Dwarkesh emphasizes the importance of managing public expectations and preparing for a range of outcomes, highlighting the necessity of effective redistribution and retraining programs to help workers transition as AI reshapes the job market.Finally, Ben and Dwarkesh consider the public policy demands and philosophical implications of AI. They discuss how AI could change human cognitive biases, improving decision-making, but also potentially amplify negative traits like greed and power-seeking. Dwarkesh advocates for policies that ensure the broad deployment of AI systems to allow society to adapt gradually and stresses the need for coordinated global efforts to manage AI's geopolitical impacts. The episode concludes with reflections on the crucial role of ethical standards in AI development, underscoring the importance of dialogue and collaboration to harness AI's benefits while mitigating its risks.---Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize warfare and reshape geopolitics. Professor Andrew Wilson, professor of Strategy at the US Naval War College, explores the transformative power of military technology throughout history and its implications for the future.In this episode of Onward, host and Fundrise CEO Ben Miller and Professor Andrew Wilson explore how technological advancements not only transform warfare but also reshape political, social, and economic landscapes. Seemingly small technological advancements (especially those in the military realm) often have profound and lasting effects on societal structures and political dynamics."Victory smiles up those who anticipate changes in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur." –Italian Air Power Theorist, General Giulio DouhetBen and Professor Wilson illustrate this by examining historical breakthroughs such as the stirrup, which led to the rise of feudalism in medieval Europe, and the Greek trireme, which fostered Athenian democracy and economic expansion. The discussion also highlights society’s transition from bronze to iron weaponry, which democratized military power by making effective weapons more accessible, thereby altering the balance of power in ancient civilizations.Moving to the present day, the conversation addresses the ongoing revolution in military technology, particularly focusing on AI and autonomous weapon systems. Professor Wilson and Ben discuss modern technologies’ potential to either democratize or centralize military power, depending on their cost to manufacture. This episode also explores China's military modernization efforts, emphasizing the strategic focus and investment in emerging technologies. Professor Wilson underscores the importance of maintaining an innovative edge and strategic flexibility to navigate the complex relationship between the United States and China, while also stressing the need for clear communication to avoid the so-called Thucydides Trap, where rising powers and status quo powers are potentially destined for conflict.Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, Editorial Director of the Economic Innovation Group and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Two roads diverged before the US. One the way of growth and the other the way of a debt spiral. In this episode, Cardiff Garcia and Ben Miller look at the state of US dynamism vs. indebtedness, and the narrow path that would lead to a prolonged US boom. They scenario plan three potential futures: the continuation of current growth trends, a major recession, and a surprise development. The discussion spans historical debt trends, the impact of AI and technology on growth, and the influence of interest rates and fiscal policies. They highlight the strategic balance required between debt management and economic development, with a focus on achieving a ‘soft landing.’ This episode covers the key decisions between leveraging growth and managing debt that will shape America’s economic destiny.Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com. Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, co-founder of Bazaar Audio and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast). Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. About Fundrise With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button. Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s). Want to see the specific properties that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.