'Perspectives' by Escala

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, takes us inside the Milken Institute Global Conference 2026, from space-based AI breakthroughs to the massive infrastructure buildout powering the next wave of innovation. (1:09) Alright, you've been roaming the halls at Milken earlier this week. Before we get into that, tell us about how it feels on the ground in the US right now. (3:27) You mentioned before you left that there were over 300 sessions across two hotels – the Beverly Wilshire and the Beverly Hilton. (5:03 How did he arrive at creating this conference, which has been running annually for almost 30 years. (5:45) What's the underlying theme this year – if you had to distil it? (6:52) What would you say was the most eye-popping session you went to? (7:51) Okay, let's talk specifics: what actually happened that got your attention? (8:37) So, a supercomputer that was able to learn in space was the breakthrough. What did it learn? (9:21) Sounds like he could be another Sam Altman. What does this do for the space industry? (10:40) Where does this hit us day-to-day? (12:13) Judging by the photos you sent back to us, I'm guessing the most exciting session for you was the one where Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, was being interviewed. (13:58) Did the issue of job destruction come up? (15:14) So, again, it comes back to that distinction between automating tasks and eliminating entire roles? (15:50) What about the next constraint in the system? (16:28) And just finally, stepping back from all of that, what's the main idea he leaves you with?

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, explains why today's geopolitical tensions signal a deeper structural shift – and what it means for markets, alliances, and investors. (1:08) Is the current state of the world only as permanent as Trump remains in office? In other words, is this just a phase, or are we actually living through something more structural? (2:30) So, even if the political backdrop changes, the system itself has already shifted? (4:29) Let's talk about that, because alliances have always been the backbone of the global system. (5:27) And that realignment has second-order effects in places people might not immediately think about. (6:29) So, even if nothing changes domestically, the global context could undermine that progress? (7:56) To bring it back to the original question – this isn't just about who's in office. (8:20) Let's move to the second theme, which builds directly on that idea: the Age of Chokepoints. It's a phrase we're hearing increasingly. Tell us about it. (11:46) What does that redesign look like in practice? (13:59) With all of that as the backdrop, it would be reasonable to expect markets to be under significant pressure. And yet, particularly in the US, equities have been remarkably resilient. Why is that? (14:50) So, even with all the uncertainty, the underlying growth drivers are still intact? (15:37) Are markets effectively looking through the noise? (16:16) How should investors think about this environment?

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about today's tensions in the Middle East, why geopolitical volatility is often shorter than feared and what it means for US-China relations. Plus, why credit investing demands ruthless diversification. (0:53) Let's start with the geopolitical shock. The United States and Israel have launched coordinated strikes on Iran, escalating tensions in a way we haven't seen for years. (1:42) We saw something similar in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil spiked to over $120 a barrel. But within six months it was back under $80. Markets adjusted. (3:26) And it did create inflation back then – in the order of 9-10% in Australia. Markets don't like supply-side shocks because they tend to be inflationary. (4:46) How does this align with Trump's negotiating style. Historically, Trump's approach has often been to escalate early and aggressively — create leverage, create uncertainty, reset the negotiating dynamic — and then reposition any de-escalation as a deal. (5:28) Trump is due to visit China soon. And China is the world's largest oil importer. How does this conflict interact with US–China relations? (6:30) Are we entering a fundamentally more dangerous geopolitical era? Or does it just feel that way? (9:16) So, when investors assume every geopolitical event is the start of a structural bear market, history suggests caution? (9:46) What about defence spending? Are we entering a structural rearmament cycle? (11:16) And then there's globalisation. For years we were told economic interdependence reduces the probability of war. (12:48) So where does that leave investors? (14:17) Let's pivot to private credit. It's been back in the headlines recently. Some managers have tightened withdrawal terms, and it's prompted questions about risk. Is there something investors should be worried about? (18:17) When people see headlines about stress in a particular credit vehicle, what should they focus on?

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about what could be Googles' DeepSeek moment – the launch of Gemini 3. If it is everything that ChatGPT isn't, what does this do to the promises made by OpenAI? (1:03) Let's start this week with what I'm calling the Nvidia check your airbags moment because the last fortnight has been incredibly volatile in markets. Whilst you are not alarmed by this you have been telling clients to check their airbags. (3:20) How has the narrative around AI changed? We hear a lot about the size of capital spending budgets from the likes of Nvidia and Microsoft etc but government seem to view it as more a national security priority. (6:29) I hear what you are saying – Gemini 3 does seem impressive. But why did this negatively affect the share price for Nvidia? Can't Nvidia supply chips to Google as easily as it does to OpenAI? (9:21) Let's move to the second theme of the week: monetary policy is becoming more challenging. Just when we had the fog of tariffs and the uncertainty of the government shutdown lifting, we now have less conviction in the path of monetary policy. (12:25) How dangerous is that? (13:45) Let's close with the third theme: fiscal policy is still loose in many places. The most intriguing twist is that Spain, long considered a fiscal problem child for Europe, now has a smaller budget deficit than Germany. Is politics playing a role here too. (15:40) But Germany isn't alone in this. Countries everywhere are reshoring manufacturing, redesigning supply chains, and pouring capital into energy, defence, and infrastructure. (17:01) Which brings us back to Japan where the credibility of the central bank is not the only thing being questioned. The bond and currency markets also have their eye on the fiscal experiment unfolding under the new Prime Minister Takaichi. (19:39) A good reason to stay loose on the bars or for those of us who are part of the four-wheel crowd, check your airbags. Tracey, thank you as always…

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about gold and how it has become a hedge against distrust. When money becomes too political to believe in, investors turn to what can't be printed. (1:35) Let's start with AI. OpenAI's been in the headlines almost weekly - new partnerships, huge infrastructure deals, and some big numbers attached. But behind all of that excitement, there's a growing conversation about vendor financing and related-party transactions - essentially suppliers funding their own customers. You've been following this closely, Tracey. What's your take on it? (4:59) So in effect, the same interconnectedness that amplifies growth on the way up amplifies fragility on the way down. (7:43) Is the other risk though around whether the revenue that is being promised by some of these companies in some of these loans is being pulled forward. (8:50) So the concern would be the quality of the revenue - not necessarily the existence of financing itself. (9:19) You've said recently that gold has stopped being a hedge - and started being a referendum. What do you mean by that? (10:18) So you'd say this is more a vote of no confidence? (11:36) That really is interesting. We've built a system that depends on our faith in fiat, in this case, the US dollar, but we price our distrust in fiat in US dollars per ounce. (12:32) And what's the implication for portfolios? (14:17) Let's move to a related theme - risk management. You mentioned that a client asked you recently, "How do you think about risk when adding a new fund to the portfolio?" That's such an important question, particularly in times like these. (15:40) Right – and so even when allocations look different on paper, they can still be tied to the same global currents. How do you identify genuine diversification?

In this episode, Escala Partners Investment Analyst David Bruty talks to Crispin Murray, Head of Equities at Pendal. Crispin talks to some of the key themes from August's reporting season in Australian equities, the heightened volatility that surrounded results and how this is providing opportunities for active managers such as Pendal, and the outlook for the year ahead.

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about the role private markets play in quietly innovating and why patient capital is so important. Public markets in contrast are getting noisier and more volatile. What is the role for both in a portfolio? (1:02) We have had some good feedback on the podcast you did with Lane McDonald, the CIO at SCS Financial. The whole issue of public versus private markets is something that has grabbed the attention of clients. Why is that do you think? (4:36) This goes to the long-term thinking by private companies doesn't it and the patience private companies are given by their investors. (6:17) You don't see this same level of volatility in private markets. (7:56) I suppose one of the other big trends clients are seeing is the rise of ETFs. How is that impacting the market? (9:41) And I guess the situation is made so much worse with ETFs now making up more than 50% of the entire US equity market. (12:27) Do you think this goes some way to explaining why the market looks so expensive? (13:01) Does this then mean by comparison the private equity market is cheaper since it doesn't suffer the same afflictions as the public market in terms of concentration and passive ETF flows? (14:47) You mentioned earlier that public markets are becoming more private and private markets are staying private. Some would argue that private markets are becoming more liquid with the rise of evergreen private funds – funds that don't lock investors capital away for 7 plus years. What do you think of this trend? (16:33) Where do you think we will be in 5-10 years given these trends in the structure of the market? (19:00) So for investors, that means the question won't just be 'public or private,' but how to balance both in a portfolio that's built for the long term. Thanks Tracey that's all we have time for …

In this episode, Escala Investment Analyst Stephen Dickinson talks to Greg Hyland (Head of Capital Markets, Asia Pacific) and Hugh MacDonald (Head of Capital Advisors, Asia Pacific) from CBRE. Greg and Hugh discuss how CBRE currently view the macro landscape and the impacts on the commercial real estate sector, some of the underlying structural drivers in the sector and the outlook ahead.

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about the importance of trust – between governments, institutions, clients and their advisers and of course the rider and her bike. (1:18) So, Tracey, how do you define trust? (1:59) Can you think of a single system—financial, political, or social—that functions without trust? (2:35) Let's go back to 2008. Where were you when Lehman collapsed? Did it hit you right away that this was a trust crisis? (3:46) And the stats reflect that. Only 27% of Americans said at the time they trusted the financial system. Ben Bernanke was the Chair of the Federal Reserve. His first move wasn't to inject capital - it was to calm people down. (4:22) That's the thing with trust - it's invisible when it works, but when it fails? (5:07) Let's zoom out for a minute. We've talked about trust in institutions, but what about trust between countries? You saw that on display at the G7 recently in Canada. President Trump walked out mid-session. Again. Cameras rolled as he boarded Air Force One early, leaving key negotiations unfinished. The summit, momentarily, became the G6. (6:00) What does that look like in practice? (6:58) And trade? (7:18) So is this a retreat from U.S. leadership? (9:35) And while allies hedge, rivals act. (10:25) And underneath all of that—is the erosion of trust. (10:44) So Tracey, I'll put the big question to you: What if trust—not military power, not GDP—was the real engine of American leadership... and that engine's stalling? (11:41) Let's come down from the G7 and walk into an adviser's office. We have spoken about trust between institutions and their clients, between the US and its allies. What about trust in our world – between the adviser and their client? (12:38) It's not just about investments, it goes further than that, its nice to get to know clients on a personal level and vice versa. (15:03) Let me shift gears—literally and talk about trust as it relates to something close to your heart. Like every other relationship we have talked about here, trust on two wheels isn't abstract. It's visceral.

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, presents from New York where she discusses her observations from being on the ground. Following meetings with portfolio managers, economists, political strategists and financial advisers across four US states she discusses how President Trump's trade war is being perceived. (0:52) Tracey, let's start with some observations of what you have seen and heard on the ground. What stood out the most? (1:51) How about the cities? You spent time in Chicago and New York, right? (2:48) What are people saying about China over there? (3:30) And how are the ports doing? I've been hearing some concerning things. (4:25) Did you get any fresh data on trade? (5:48) Let's switch gears a bit. You mentioned some cultural shifts too? (6:36) And tech? (7:40) Let's pivot to markets. Tracey, you've said it feels like a period of stasis. Can you unpack that? (8:22) So what's the disconnect? (9:19) Let's talk specifically about earnings. What's the mood? (10:28) And currency? (10:58) You mentioned the CFA Conference that you went to in Chicago. What was the big takeaway? (11:28) So private equity is in vogue. Why? (12:50) That's huge. What does this mean for junior analyst roles? (13:14) One of the issues we hear a lot about with private equity is the drop off in public listings. Is this an issue for the asset class do you think? (14:14) Let's turn to geopolitics before we wrap. The new UK-US trade deal got quite a bit of airtime in the press. What's your take? (15:33) Do you think we will see the US become more isolated? (16:45) And what about Europe? We've heard a lot about the EU being slow to act in the past—has that changed? (17:23) So you're saying US protectionism is acting like a catalyst to make Europe great again?

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the seismic shift in German defence spending, why Greek banks are looking attractive and why the team are no longer happy to be overweight US equities. (1:10) Tracey for decades, Germany has been the poster child of fiscal conservatism in Europe. The country's approach was shaped by its post-WWII economic memory, where inflation and debt were deeply stigmatized. The past few weeks has seen a seismic shift in that view. (1:55) It was a historic shift in Germany's fiscal policy. (2:49) Still, it means some significant government spending in Germany. What does it say about NATO? (3:51) So is this another cold War? (4:27) The Australian Government brought down its budget last week. Did defence spending get a boost? (5:21) Let's turn to trade policy—specifically tariffs. Today is Liberation Day – the day the Trump administration is expected to announce the most aggressive pivot in U.S. trade policy in decades. There's been a lot of headline noise, but break it down for us: how are U.S. companies actually being affected on the ground? (6:15) That's massive. What are companies doing in response? (7:49) So even "Made in America" isn't immune? The idea of a 100% "Made in America" car does not exist. (9:19) What about everyday consumer brands? (10:07) So inflation is coming back through the trade channel? (10:30) What about smaller companies? How is all of this affecting them? (11:47) So what are the smart companies doing right now? (13:32) That's a pretty tough landscape. Are there sectors that are less affected by these tariffs -maybe even thriving? (14:48) What are some other examples of more resilient sectors? (15:36) So it is the defensive sectors plus financials and real assets that will likely be the most insulated – at least in a relative sense. The countries whose equity indexes are highest in these sectors are the UK, Europe and Australia. (15:56) That brings us to an important decision that came out of our investment committee last week. You've announced the closure of your overweight position in US equities relative to Australian equities. Walk us through this decision? (16:48) That sounds logical. So what changed? (17:38) Tariff induced inflation pressures may prevent the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as much as expected. Further undermining the case for US equities. (17:58) Tracey it's clear we're navigating a period of substantial global change. What advice would give to investors right now?

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses what a multi-polar world might look like, NATO's fragile state and how the world trade map is being re-drawn. (1:30) It has been easy to get stuck in the weeds over the past 57 days, since President Trumps inauguration, so lets take a helicopter view and talk about US exceptionalism. For decades, the US has been the dominant force in global politics, economics, and military power. But today, we're seeing cracks in that dominance. How do you see this playing out? (3:08) Interesting. And politically, are we seeing a decline in soft power? (4:05) So, does this mean the US has reached peak superpower status? (4:31) What does this multipolar world look like? (8:10) Okay, so we have these competing power centres. What does that mean for global stability and for investors in general? (10:44) So what's your biggest takeaway about the multipolar world we're entering? (11:35) Its truly fascinating. The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is one of the biggest geopolitical changes of our time, and it's happening faster than most people realize. (11:46) That brings us to NATO. The alliance that defined the Cold War and kept the West united for so long through so many challenging times - could we really be seeing its end? Gerard Minack, our Independent Investment Committee member said it is not dead yet but it is on life support. (12:50) But hasn't NATO expanded recently? Finland and Sweden are joining—doesn't that strengthen the alliance? (13:31) So, if NATO were to dissolve or become irrelevant, what would the world look like? What would take its place? (14:51) Alright, let's shift our focus to something that affects not just governments and corporations but everyday people - the ongoing tariff and trade war. This conflict is now reshaping global supply chains in profound ways. We've seen waves of tariffs, retaliatory measures, and efforts to decouple economies. How is this reshaping global trade, and what does it mean for businesses and consumers? (17:20) Okay, so tariffs didn't quite work as planned. But how did they affect global supply chains? (18:27) With this new reality taking shape, who are the winners and losers?