Oil Rate Surge Affects Feds Interest Rate Plans
From Planned Solutions by Planned Solutions
April 9, 2026 · 29 min
About this episode
The episode discusses the impact of rising oil prices on the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans and the current state of the stock market amidst geopolitical uncertainty.
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Podcast, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady thus far in 2026 and recently signaled that it will likely remain on pause as the committee monitors the impact of higher oil prices and reduced oil supply. Earlier this year, the market priced in the expectation that the Fed would keep rates steady in early 2026 and cut rates later in the year. The market is now pricing in a 52% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at least once in 2026, a major reversal.S&P 500 earnings growth rebounded in early 2025 and accelerated during the year. By the third quarter, the year-over-year earnings growth rate increased to more than 20%, with the fourth quarter expected to report similar results. This strong earnings growth may be one reason that the stock market has been more resilient thus far to increased geopolitical uncertainty than would be expected.Several US stock indexes entered correction territory, which means prices declined by 10% or more from their previous all-time highs. Corrections are considered normal, whereas a bear market (a decline of 20% or more) is considered much more serious and often signals a future…
Topics covered
- Federal Reserve
- interest rates
- oil prices
- stock market
- economic recession
Keywords
- S&P 500
- earnings growth
- market correction
- geopolitical uncertainty
Mentioned in this episode
Places: US, Folsom, CA
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