The Ceasefire That Isn't a Ceasefire and the Mistaken Assumptions of the IRGC (with Zineb Riboua)

About this episode

The episode discusses the complexities and contradictions surrounding the term 'ceasefire' in the context of ongoing military actions and political negotiations involving Iran.

Just how absurd does the word ceasefire sounds when nobody actually stops firing? We’re calling it a ceasefire, we are acting like it is a ceasefire, but the reality on the ground does not match the label. Missiles are still being launched, ships are still being threatened, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down despite whatever was signed on paper. That disconnect makes me question what kind of agreement was actually reached in the first place. If Iran agreed to open the strait and then immediately went back to restricting access and intimidating shipping, then either they never intended to follow through or they cannot enforce their own decisions. Neither option is particularly reassuring. When your main leverage is control over a critical global shipping lane, giving that up even briefly would be a major concession, so the reversal almost feels inevitable. I keep coming back to how much of this hinges on internal dynamics within Iran. The delegation that is set to meet with the United States this weekend includes both more moderate figures and hardliners tied to the Revolutionary Guard. That alone tells me that whatever comes out of those talks is going to be…

People in this episode

Host: Justin Robert Young

Guest: Zineb Riboua

Topics covered

• ceasefire
• Iran
• military conflict
• international relations
• shipping lanes
• political dynamics

Keywords

• ceasefire
• Iran
• IRGC
• Strait of Hormuz
• military conflict
• international relations
• shipping

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: IRGC

Places: Strait of Hormuz, Iran, United States

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