Power Plays

This week on Power Plays (recorded May 13th, 2026), we are joined by a guest co-host, Henry Sanderson, while Charlotte completes an epic run in Spain. Henry is the author of Volt Rush, former journalist at Bloomberg and the Financial Times, and fellow at RUSI and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. This week we cover: Trump's trip to China - why is he going, what will he ask for in the negotiation to secure rare earth supply chains, and will this lead to more investment in the US cleantech sector?The PJM's electricity market reform proposals - why there are calls for reform to capacity markets, what those reforms could look like, and will they will improve reliability?The Beijing Auto Show and evolving EV trends - the move towards luxury EVs and battery swapping for heavy-duty vehicles like trucksStruggling European battery manufacturers - Morrow's bankruptcy, why Europe's manufacturing has lagged China'sPower price moves - how lower power prices drive EVs, changes in China's market connectivity and design

Recorded 18th April 2026: This week we explore the forces reshaping heavy industry in the energy transition — from the role of of coal in global power systems to the rapidly evolving race to build low-carbon steel.In this episode:What the latest data says about global coal demandWhy mining costs are rising - and how producers are respondingThe financing and technology choices shaping new green steel plantsHow renewable energy availability is reorganizing industrial supply chainsWhy geopolitical risk is becoming a core variable in industrial investmentWe unpack new data from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air which shows coal use has remained flat, examine rising mining input costs, and discuss how economics, infrastructure, and geopolitics are beginning to determine where the next generation of industrial facilities will be built.Coal India Limited warns of rising supply chain costs because of increases in explosives costs (driven by gas prices) and diesel for mine trucks (driven by oil prices). While the stated cost rises were high (26% and 54% respectively), the impact on overall coal costs in India is muted, less than 2% of costs. The state-controlled company has promised to insulate consumers from these price shocks and it can do so with a large profit margin cushion. This slightly reduces the incentive to switch to clean energy. Other miners may have to pass these cost increases on, for coal and other commodities, which could raise prices if there are fewer substitutes.Stegra (formerly H2 Green Steel) secured €1.4 billion in additional financing to complete construction of its flagship steel plant in northern Sweden — the first new steel mill in Europe in decades. The project reflects the practical reality that hydrogen infrastructure at industrial scale is still emerging. The financing underscores both the scale of investment required for industrial decarbonization and the importance of secure long-term demand contracts in making these projects bankable.SuSteel Namibia successfully demonstrated hydrogen-based iron production at an industrially relevant scale, marking a major step beyond pilot projects. The development highlights a broader shift in the steel value chain: energy-intensive processing is beginning to move to regions with abundant, low-cost renewable power. Rather than exporting hydrogen, Namibia is positioning itself to export higher-value intermediate products like direct reduced iron, capturing more industrial value locally.Proposed green iron projects in the Middle East are now facing increased uncertainty as geopolitical tensions raise shipping, insurance, and financing risks. Despite having some of the world’s lowest-cost energy and strong industrial infrastructure, the region’s risk profile is beginning to influence investment decisions. The story illustrates a growing reality for the energy transition: energy price alone is no longer decisive — reliability and geopolitical stability are becoming equally critical to project economics.

Recorded Sunday 29th March. Two very different stories highlight the complexity of the energy transition - from industrial decarbonisation in steel and cement to the increasingly political battle over offshore wind in the US and UK.Key topics:Why steel slag matters for low-carbon cementHow electric arc furnaces (EAFs) are reshaping industrial wasteHow Cocoon Carbon could decarbonise both steel and concreteTrump refunding offshore wind leases in favour of oil and gasThe UK rejecting Chinese turbine manufacturing investmentWhat this means for costs, jobs, and industrial strategyConnecting two hard-to-abate sectors: steel (7%) and cement (8%) together account for ~15% of global GHG emissions, yet both remain under-discussed due to their reliance on hard-to-abate process emissions.Cocoon Carbon is a UK based company developing technology to convert EAF steel slag into supplementary cementitious material (SCM) that can replace up to 30% of ordinary Portland cement.Historically, ~70% of steel came from blast furnaces, producing slag that could be reused as SCM in cement. However, as steel production shifts from blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces to direct reduced iron and EAFs - cutting emissions by 40–70% - the slag chemistry changes, making it unusable in cement in its raw form.Cocoon's technology can process this EAF steel slag while molten (~1,500°C), directly at the steel plant, into a form usable as SCM, restoring its value. With ~100–150 kg of slag produced per tonne of steel, this creates a major new source of low-carbon cement input.The economics are compelling: raw slag sells for ~$15–25 per tonne, while processed SCM reaches ~$80–120 per tonne (~5× uplift). This improves steel plant economics, reduces waste, and supports the shift to EAFs. The US is the first target market, where ~70% of steel is already EAF-based and regulations are performance-driven. Cocoon has raised $15m in a Series A round; its modular units can be installed in 6–9 months.In wind, the US story centres on Trump refunding ~$1bn in offshore wind lease payments to TotalEnergies to cancel a 4 GW project and redirect capital into oil and gas. The leases were part of a ~$5bn auction round, with the refund representing ~3% of project cost. This reflects a broader anti-wind stance and may increase costs in regions where offshore wind is cheaper than gas.Offshore wind also raises a structural question: could it replicate fossil fuel royalties? US oil and gas generated ~$6bn in royalties in 2024 (ongoing payments), whereas wind leases are typically upfront rather than recurring.In the UK, a £1.5bn Mingyang turbine factory (≈1,500 jobs) was rejected on security grounds. A smaller £200m investment from Vestas (~500 jobs) may proceed, depending on auction demand.The UK’s decision prioritises energy security but highlights a trade-off: without stronger negotiation, the country risks missing out on manufacturing, jobs, and long-term industrial leverage while remaining dependent on foreign developers.

Recorded Sunday 15th March – In this episode we examine how the escalating Middle East conflict is moving beyond oil and gas headlines into the wider industrial systems that underpin the global economy.We focus on how disruption is transmitted through refined fuels, fertilizers, industrial gases and metals supply chains — and why these second-order effects often shape inflation, food prices, manufacturing and energy security more than the initial price spike itself.The episode closes with a discussion of resilience — from distributed energy and alternative production pathways to the policy options currently being considered in the UK.Key Questions Explored:Refined fuels: • Why do jet fuel and diesel markets tighten faster than crude oil supply? • Why are refineries configured for specific crude types and difficult to switch between? • How do refined fuel shortages feed directly into aviation, freight and consumer prices?Military logistics driving renewables adoption: • Why is fuel logistics one of the largest operational risks in military operations? • How do fuel supply convoys create security vulnerabilities in conflict zones? • Why are militaries investing in microgrids, solar and battery storage to reduce fuel dependence?Ammonia and fertilizers: • Why is ammonia production so tightly linked to natural gas prices? • How do fertilizer price increases transmit into global food costs and agricultural output? • Why do many countries maintain domestic fertilizer production as a matter of national security?Renewable ammonia and the Atome's Villeta project: • What makes renewable ammonia viable in locations with abundant low-cost electricity? • Why does proximity to agricultural demand and export infrastructure matter for project economics? • How does the Villeta project illustrate a shift in fertilizer production toward renewable energy sources?Helium: • Why is helium supply closely tied to natural gas processing infrastructure? • What happens to healthcare and semiconductor manufacturing when helium supply is disrupted, and what are knock-on effects for Taiwan? • Why are global helium markets particularly vulnerable due to concentrated production?Sulfur and sulfuric acid: • How does sulfur recovered from oil and gas processing become a critical industrial chemical? • Why is sulfuric acid essential for fertilizers, metal refining and battery material production? • How can disruption in sulfur supply ripple into mining, agriculture and manufacturing costs?What is the UK government doing to counter rising prices?• What short-term measures can governments use to support households during energy price spikes? • How might policies such as price monitoring, subsidies or targeted support be deployed? • Why are distributed energy technologies like rooftop solar, batteries and flexibility increasingly central to resilience?

Recorded on Monday 2nd March. We discuss the first energy market reactions to the escalating Middle East conflict and what it reveals about global supply chains. We also explore Google’s new data-centre energy strategy, Form Energy’s push to commercialise 100-hour batteries, and how distributed storage can help free up capacity to bring more capacity online faster.Initial energy shocks from the Middle East escalation – what the conflict could mean for global energy and commodity markets.War-risk premiums and shipping implications – how insurance markets are disrupting global energy and commodity flows The overlooked commodity that links energy to food – why sulfur shortages could ripple through fertilizer markets and push up agricultural costs.Connecting load to the grid - why it's often harder than building new generation.Google’s new strategies for powering data centres – 2 projects in Minnesota and Texas each show different combinations of colocation, storage, and interconnection strategies to speed up interconnection.The rise of multi-day batteries – why LDES can reshape how grids handle extreme weather and renewable volatility.Form Energy – how iron-air batteries store electricity by turning iron into rust and back again.Why 100 hours matters – the multi-day grid stress events that this technology is built to solve.Batteries vs grid expansion – how distributed storage could defer hundreds of billions of dollars in transmission upgrades and bring more capacity online faster.A growing policy divide – why the US is subsidising energy manufacturing while Europe focuses on lowering electricity prices.

Recorded 15th February. Delivering the energy transition increasingly depends on the inputs required: materials availability, processing capacity, & the industrial policy that determines what actually gets built.Rising demand for critical minerals is driving supply-security concerns, strategic stockpiles, recycling scale-up, & copper innovation. It’s also increasingly shaping industrial investment decisions, particularly in Europe. This week’s headlines illustrate that:· Policy signal - Project Vault: The US proposed a strategic critical minerals reserve with $12B of financing to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, mainly China. It could work if treated as a resilience stockpile, but $2B of private investment signals returns expectations, which may push it to act like a market instrument not insurance.· Rare earths - geopolitics most concentrated & recycling as a hedge: Cyclic Materials $75M Series C to scale rare earth recycling & diversify supply beyond primary mining. RE magnet supply chains remain highly concentrated, especially in heavy’s where China has almost a complete monopoly & has tightened export controls since 2023.· But in battery recycling, a pivot: Redwood Materials $425M Series E, for a growing stationary energy storage business using recovered & second-life batteries. Originally focused on circular battery supply chains, the move reflects tighter recycling margins, rising storage demand & benefits of vertical integration.The story extends to copper, the metal of electrification. Without significant new supply coming online soon, net-zero risks being short-circuited as it’s highly conductive, durable & recyclable, with few grid-scale substitutes:· Cu processing: Two biomining deals - Transition Metals Solutions ($6M seed) & Endolith ($13.5M Series A) to improve Cu recovery from lower-grade ores using microbes. The promise; lower energy & access to stranded resources. Challenges; speed, control & industrial scale-up.· Cu recycling: Recuperate Metals $6M seed to mechanically upgrade Cu scrap & industrial waste into higher-quality secondary feedstocks. If scalable, it could accelerate capacity with lower capex & energy intensity, but impurities, input variability & qualification timelines remain hurdles.· Cu substitution: DexMat $5M seed to scale production of carbon-nanotube conductive fibre. It won’t replace copper broadly, but could be used in weight-sensitive or high-performance niches like aerospace or satellites.Materials pressure doesn’t stop at clean-tech supply chains, it’s reshaping heavy industry as carbon policy tightens:· European steel: ArcelorMittal confirmed a €1.3B EAF project at Dunkirk - currently its only new-build investment. Using scrap steel, DRI/HBI, & some hot metal, it cuts emissions 3x cf. the traditional BF-BOF approach.· Policy driver - CBAM now operational: Europe is extending carbon pricing to imports making C intensity a real competitiveness factor. It’s creating investable conditions for industrial decarbonisation by narrowing the cost gap between EU producers & higher-emissions imports - favouring lower-emissions production, particularly scrap-heavy EAF steel backed by low-C power.

Recorded 30th January 2026. With AI, hyperscalers, and the broader ‘electrification of everything’ accelerating demand for clean, firm, and reliable power, capital markets are beginning to reopen to fund it. As speed-to-power becomes the decisive factor, strategy is moving upstream toward how electricity is secured, controlled, and delivered efficiently.This shift shows up clearly in the week’s deal headlines - from owning and optimising dispatchable fleets, to upgrading brownfield assets, to tackling the bottlenecks that have historically constrained scale.Together, the deals reveal a growing split in how ‘clean firm’ energy is being financed. Geothermal is being steadily de-risked across the value chain, with capital flowing into discovery, drilling, and operations. Fusion, meanwhile, is testing public markets as a frontier bet, shaped by vast capital requirements and long development timelines.Constellation’s $16.4B equity acquisition of Calpine (≈$26.5B EV) signals incumbents securing near-term capacity by acquiring the ability to control dispatchable portfolios under reliability pressure. Calpine’s geothermal fleet includes ~200MW of underutilised turbine capacity. With existing permits, turbines, interconnection, and subsurface data in place, brownfield upgrades offer a compressed timeline to deliver additional clean firm MW and place a premium on assets that can be upgraded.Zanskar’s $115M Series C highlights capital flowing upstream to address exploration uncertainty. By applying AI to subsurface mapping and geothermal discovery, the company aims to reduce the dry well problem that often halts projects before development. Lower exploration risk strengthens the project pipeline and geothermal’s evolution into a scalable infrastructure category.Sage Geosystems’ $97M Series B co-led by Ormat, addresses operational credibility. Its geo-pressurised geothermal approach uses the subsurface as both a heat source and a compressed-rock energy storage medium, enabling load shifting and expanding the value stack toward firm power plus flexibility. Ormat’s participation signals confidence in operational discipline, uptime, and long-term asset performance.Fervo’s IPO filing marks a category transition. After years of climate-tech investors pointing to a lack of exits, the filing signals that liquidity may be returning, with geothermal emerging as an early test case. Having raised more than $1B in private capital, Fervo’s move to the public markets will assess whether enhanced geothermal is valued alongside established infrastructure assets.Fusion also moved toward public markets this week: General Fusion’s planned ~$1B SPAC transaction (≈$300M proceeds) and TAE’s proposed all-stock merger illustrate how long development horizons and large capital needs are pushing fusion developers toward broader funding pools. Public listing introduces access to capital alongside heightened scrutiny, volatility, and milestone pressure.We close by bringing the discussion to the UK. The Warm Homes Plan reframes energy policy around affordability and resilience at the household level. Through insulation upgrades, heating support, and distributed energy technologies, the programme targets renters and lower-income households while incorporating tighter implementation standards to address past failures.Across the episode, the pattern is clear: as electricity constraint intensifies, value accrues to those who can compress timelines, reduce risk, and deliver bankable capacity.