Probable Causation

Nour Abdul-Razzak talks about her research on a cognitive behavioral therapy program called Choose to Change. “Longer-term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago” by Nour Abdul-Razzak, Brandon Domash, Kelly Hallberg, and Cristobal Pinto Poehls. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Scarcity: Why having too little means so much by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir. “Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. “Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Reduces Crime and Violence over Ten Years: Experimental Evidence” by Christopher Blattman, Sebastian Chaskel, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan. “Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago" by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman. Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin. "Therapy to Reduce Violence and Improve Institutional Safety During Incarceration" by Bill Evans, Tyler Giles, and Rebecca Margolit-Chan. "Can Recidivism be Prevented from Behind Bars? Evidence from a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour. "'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program" by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, Crystal S. Yang. Probable Causation Episode 113: Peter Hull . “A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. Probable Causation Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube.

Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017" by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm. "Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized experiment" by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. "The Government Revenue, Recidivism, and Financial Health Effects of Criminal Fines and Fees" by Tyler Giles. "The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data" by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.

Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform” by Robert Martinson. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman. “Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs. “Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg. “Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. "The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan. "Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya. "Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints" by Shannon R.Graham and Michael D.Makowsky. "More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "To Serve and Collect: The Fiscal and Racial Determinants of Law Enforcement" by Michael D. Makowsky, Thomas Stratmann, and Alex Tabarrok. "Finders keepers: forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets" by Katherine Baicker and Mireille Jacobson. "When Punishment Doesn’t Pay: Cold Glow and Decisions to Punish" by Aurélie Ouss and Alexander Peysakhovich. "Correctional ‘Free Lunch’? Cost Neglect Increases Punishment in Prosecutors" by Eyal Aharoni, Heather M. Kleider-Offutt, and Sarah F. Brosnan. "Organizational structure, police activity and crime" by Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati, and Oren Rigbi. "Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California’s Public Safety Realignment Reform" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael. "Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism" by Anita Mukherjee.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch "Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman "Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver "Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith "Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes. “When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn "‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss. “The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan. "How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil" by Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. “The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety" by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves, and Emily Weisburst. Probable Causation Episode 65: Felipe Gonçalves “Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr. Probable Causation Episode 55: Morgan Williams, Jr. “Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey. Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang. Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang "Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and Jonathan Tebes. "Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities" by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. Probable Causation Episode 95: Marcella Alsan "Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-Profile Acts of Police Violence" by Desmond Ang, Panka Bencsik, Jesse Bruhn, and Ellora Derenoncourt. "Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily K. Weisburst. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. "Copaganda: The Media Origins of the Attitudes Toward Policing in America" by Eunji Kim, Tyler Reno, and Esteban Fernandez. [Working paper available from the authors.] "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration" by Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette.