Positivity Isn’t Always Naivete

About this episode

The episode discusses the contrasting narratives of US equity and rates markets, examining complacency and the implications of a Warsh-led Fed on investor positioning.

In this special cross over edition (originally recorded for the RBC Capital Markets Macro Minutes podcast), Lori joins Blake Gwinn, Head of RBC Capital Markets US Rates Strategy in a conversation on US equities, US rates, and the Fed. What we discuss: Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates.

People in this episode

Host: Lori

Guest: Blake Gwinn

Topics covered

• US equities
• US rates
• Federal Reserve
• market volatility
• risk assets
• Iran conflict outcomes

Keywords

• equity markets
• rates markets
• complacency narrative
• Warsh-led Fed
• market volatility
• investor positioning

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Fed

Places: Iran

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