Risk Curve: Modelling the “Ideal” Hazard

Risk Curve: Modelling the “Ideal” Hazard

From Risk! Engineers Talk Governance by Richard Robinson & Gaye Francis

May 17, 2026 · 13 min · Season 7 · Episode 10

About this episode

Richard Robinson and Gaye Francis discuss the mathematics behind risk modelling and the limitations of heat maps in decision-making.

Drop us a note In this episode of Risk! Engineers Talk Governance, due diligence engineers Richard Robinson and Gaye Francis discuss the mathematics behind risk modelling and why relying on heat maps for decision-making can have limitations. Richard and Gaye explore the concept of the "ideal" hazard risk curve, unpacking why every hazard carries its own unique risk profile rather than a neat line of constant risk. Drawing on Heinrich's accident triangle and the hyperbolic relationship between...

People in this episode

Hosts: Richard Robinson, Gaye Francis

Topics covered

  • risk modelling
  • hazard risk curve
  • decision-making
  • heat maps
  • accident analysis

Keywords

  • risk modelling
  • hazard
  • risk curve
  • heat maps
  • decision-making
  • accident triangle

Mentioned in this episode

Books & works: Heinrich's accident triangle

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