Can sports betting overthrow Iran?

Can sports betting overthrow Iran?

From Riskgaming by Lux Capital

January 28, 2026 · 38 min

About this episode

The episode discusses the intersection of sports betting and prediction markets with guest Dustin Gouker.

I’m going to admit, sports betting isn’t really my thing. I don’t know my parlay from my parler (that’s a French joke), and I can barely keep three balls in the air at work, let alone track the balls across dozens of matches every weekend. But I’m an odd duck, since that is what Americans — and increasingly the world — do for entertainment. Nearly a majority of men in the United States have a sports betting account, and now the betting markets have opened to politics, culture and much more through prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.Will predictions become reality — or can reality be made to conform to predictions? That’s just part of the conversation I have with Dustin Gouker. Dustin is the writer of The Closing Line and The Event Horizon newsletters covering prediction markets and the sports betting landscape.He and I (Riskgaming host Danny Crichton ) talk about why prediction markets remain a small sliver of betting, how new underwriting models are taking market share from incumbents, the interface between betting and parametric insurance (because why not?), why sports will always dominate the industry, how performativity is increasingly interacting with…

People in this episode

Host: Danny Crichton

Guest: Dustin Gouker

Topics covered

  • sports betting
  • prediction markets
  • politics
  • entertainment
  • international relations
  • parametric insurance

Keywords

  • sports betting
  • prediction markets
  • Dustin Gouker
  • Danny Crichton
  • entertainment
  • politics
  • parametric insurance

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Polymarket, Kalshi

Places: United States, Iran

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