Saxo Market Call

Today we discuss the key companies reporting in this week's earnings bonanza with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, including Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft and Apple. We also note Nvidia's big drop on an otherwise positive day for the market - a concerning sign. Next week features several companies of note. Elsewhere, we note everyone rushing to declare a top in the crude oil market because of a classic Economist cover indicator. Really? Finally, a look at the macro and FX space, where the focus is on a strong bout of JPY intervention that sparked significant JPY volatility. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the further strong resurgence in risk assets, noting in particular the first signs of a comeback in some of the most beaten down names in software of late. Elsewhere, Oracle, the most beaten down name in our AI basket was the strongest performer on the S&P 500 Monday. Also, a look at what looks like a fresh bear trend developing in the US dollar, thoughts on the importance of the incoming Trump-Xi summit and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader from today, covering the USD sell-off, latest reads on FX trends, USDJPY technicals and more. A very long form interview with the great Craig Tindale on China's "gaming the system", the rest of the world's physical supply chain challenges and much more. Shanaka Anslem Perera discusses Iran's short fuse on dealing with any disruption to its oil output flows if the US is indeed going after a blockade on Iranian exports as a pressure tactic. Also, did a US-sanctioned ship bound for China just slip through the blockade? Macrovoices interviewed Adam Rozencwajg on what comes next after the Iran war crisis. (Sustained higher oil prices, he believes.) About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at equity markets that remain hopeful as key US-Iran talks kick off today in Islamabad, Pakistan. Even so, some big software names were under fresh heavy pressure as Anthropic's latest model release carves a path of devastation across the software universe. Elsewhere, we continue to highlight the importance of spot versus future prices for oil, check in on the status of the USD and JPY and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Let's hope he is wrong but Brent Johnson is concerned that food prices will see enormous impacts due to the disruptions of fertilizer flows from the Middle East, even if shipments were to resume tomorrow. The first portion of his paid substack is available for free. Stratechery does an excellent job putting Anthropic's latest Mythos release into perspective and has an older piece that it refers back to on "Anthropic and alignment" that discusses what is at stake for any leading edge AI company and its relationship with the sovereign. Finally, you can read the latest grand Craig Tindale thought piece on the geostrategic positioning of the US and why it is doing what it is doing. He penned another piece on his substack that also provides a compelling framework for why the US is behaving as it is, that its position "rhymes" historically with that of Imperial Japan after the US cut off oil and About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and even LNG closures in Australia, all while US treasury yields and oil are ramping higher again ahead of another weekend. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links: Here is Triggernometry interviewing an expert on the risk that this Iran conflict drags on, but with some interesting ideas as well on how Trump might flip the script. Here is the interview with Kuppy on the Benny and the Squirrel podcast, the hedge fund manager with some worthy observations on current market conditions, the general market environment and his approach to trading. Golden stuff. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves in US treasuries, a critical market for risk sentiment, as well as reactions and the state of play in major currencies. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Regarding today's discussion on OpenAI and Elon Musk's comment that "OpenAI is goint to eat Microsoft alive", a long-form X post on risks to the relationship. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. As discussed on today's pod, here's a link to some of the key countdown clocks linked to supply shortfalls of key products that are not currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.