Simply Put

The ISM Manufacturing survey has shown US firms have struggled to plan long-term amid this year’s fluid tariff policy landscape. Economic uncertainty and the lingering risks of policy reversal are limiting manufacturers’ confidence in making big investment or hiring decisions. Meanwhile, AI promises to increase demand for some manufacturing sectors while revolutionizing the production of others. In this episode, we talk with Sue Spence, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, about how tariff policies are influencing manufacturers’ long-term planning, AI’s impact on the operations and demands for manufacturing, and what worries manufacturers most heading into 2026.

FHN Financial forecasts the economy will remain resilient next year and inflation will trend towards 2%, allowing the Fed to cut rates by 75bp in 2026. The outlook could nonetheless shift from several structural economic changes. The risk of eventual tariff pass-through to consumer prices will linger in the background, AI-fueled investment has buoyed the 2025 economy without much job growth, and the FOMC may struggle to reach consensus next year as policy normalization continues under a new Fed Chair. This episode is a recording of the economic roundtable at FHN Financial’s 2025 annual seminar in Nashville with Chief Economist Chris Low, Senior Economist Sophia Kearney-Lederman, and Economic Analyst Mark Streiber.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he is committed to fast-tracking President Trump’s proposal to change the frequency of corporate disclosure requirements from quarterly to semi-annually. Proponents argue the reform would significantly lower compliance costs and encourage more long-term thinking, while detractors believe it would decrease vital transparency that allows for price discovery and well-functioning markets. In this bonus episode, we talk with Nell Minow, a corporate governance scholar and Chair of ValueEdge Advisors, about the history of quarterly earnings reports, how regulators determine materiality, and the timeline for any potential regulatory changes.

FOMC participants disagree about current economic conditions as well as the current stance of monetary policy. The neutral fed funds rate, often called r*, is where policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative, and helps guide Fed officials’ assessments of optimal policy in the short- and long-run. As the Fed continues to normalize policy, the bond market will contend with the uncertain destination of short-term interest rates in the post-pandemic economy. In this episode, we talk with Chris Low, Chief Economist with FHN Financial, about the difficulty in estimating r*, how neutral policy estimates impact bond market pricing, and whether r* is a useful measure of broader financial conditions.

The Federal Reserve helps support financial system resilience by acting as the lender of last resort, providing liquidity to institutions in exchange for high quality collateral. The usage of its 13(3) emergency authority during the 2023 regional banking crisis suggests the Fed may use these powers more frequently in today’s financial system. The rising importance of non-bank institutions has also complicated the Fed’s aim to strike an optimal balance between efficacy and the minimization of moral hazard. In this episode, we talk with Kate Judge, Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, about the Fed’s role as lender of last resort, evaluating liquidity needs versus insolvency, and whether existing facilities can mitigate the next financial crisis.

New policies are redefining the relationship between the federal government and higher education, curbing spending on research and threatening the revenue streams from endowments and international student tuition. Colleges and universities are looking for short-term fixes while developing longer-term plans to cut services or raise tuition fees. In this episode, we talk with David Jesse, Senior Writer at the Chronicle of Higher Education, about the federal government’s role in the financing of higher education, the financial impacts new policies could have on colleges and universities, and how institutions may adapt to the new landscape.

This year’s big fiscal package, officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), extends the TCJA’s tax cuts, increases spending on defense and immigration enforcement, significantly cuts Medicaid expenditures, and increases the debt ceiling by $5tn. The law’s budgetary impact will depend on the path of interest rates, how the economy responds to its various incentives, and whether temporary provisions are eventually made permanent. In this episode, we talk with Rachel Snyderman, Managing Director of Economic Policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, about the OBBBA’s most significant provisions, its impact on federal deficits, and the ways it could affect growth and interest rates.