Stock Market Updates

Opening Bell - Morning CommentarySmall is Beautiful – Look Beyond the Index Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the second consecutive week, supported by easing crude oil prices and easing geopolitical concerns. The Nifty 50 snapped its losing streak, reclaiming the 24,000 level.Fed rate-hike concerns stoked fears of FII outflows from emerging markets, while Accenture's revenue growth guidance cut triggered a broad-based selloff in IT stocks.Offsetting these pressures, strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals — robust retail demand and sustained infrastructure momentum — provided a floor. U.S. stocks remained highly volatile, pulled in opposing directions by a pivotal Federal Reserve policy shift and fast-moving geopolitical developments. For the week, the Nasdaq gained 1.9%, the S&P 500 added 1.1%, and the Dow finished marginally higher.The Fed's midweek meeting — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, but the accompanying tone was decidedly hawkish. Nifty closing above 24,000 after a long pause marks a clear breakout, but the real story is happening beneath the headline index. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks have begun to show greater momentum than large-cap names. Expect smaller stocks to continue outperforming in the medium-term, as valuations re-rate and earnings recover across cyclical segments. Indian markets are set to open higher on positive global cues.

Global Markets Retreat As Inflation Pressures ResurfaceU.S. equities endured a volatile last week. AI-driven optimism lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs early on, but a barrage of hot inflation data and escalating geopolitical anxiety triggered a sharp global sell-off on Friday, erasing nearly all weekly gains.The week's defining catalyst was a troubling inflation resurgence. April CPI climbed 0.6% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 3.8% — the highest since May 2023. More alarming was the PPI print: wholesale prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual producer inflation to 6.0% — a level unseen since December 2022. The bond sell-off accelerated sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.59%, up from below 4.00% as recently as late February. The 2-year yield settled at 4.08%, while the 30-year reached 5.12% — its highest level since 2007.Markets have abandoned hopes for near-term cuts. Rate futures now imply roughly a 50% probability of a quarter- or half-point hike by December, with a ~49% chance of rates holding and less than 1% pricing in a cut. The nearly complete US Q1 earnings season has been robust. S&P 500 companies are on pace for revenue growth of 11.4% — the strongest since Q2 2022 — and earnings growth of 27.7%, the best since Q4 2021.The Indian equity market also faced steep volatility during the last week, resuming its downward trajectory as global and domestic macro headwinds dented investor sentiment.The primary market trigger was a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, which drove Brent crude prices past the $100 per barrel mark. For import-dependent India, surging oil prices reignited structural inflation fears. This macro strain immediately hit the currency market, forcing the Indian Rupee to a fresh historic low of over Rs 96 against the US dollar.A hotter-than-expected US inflation print (both CPI and PPI) fueled global anxieties that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates higher for longer, triggering a global risk-off environment that hit emerging markets hard. The Sensex settled 2.7% down while the Nifty shed 2.2% last week. The BSE 150 Mid-Cap index declined 2.65% and the BSE 250 Small-Cap dropped 3.81%.Nifty is consolidating in a broad range between 23850 to 23250 range. A decisive breakout above 23850 level is needed to revive bullish momentum in the market. On the downside, the swing low of 23,262 continues to act as support for the index.Indian markets are poised to open 100 points lower from Friday's close near 23550 levels.

Nvidia's $5.5 Trillion Milestone Drives US Markets to New HeightsThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs on Wednesday, led by a broad technology rally even as hotter-than-expected inflation data tempered sentiment. Gains were concentrated at the top, as roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents finished the session lower, underscoring the narrow breadth beneath the headline records.NVIDIA was the standout, surging 2.29% to become the first company in history to reach a $5.5 trillion market capitalisation. CEO Jensen Huang's appearance alongside President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Beijing summit lent the stock additional momentum. Micron Technology also advanced on AI-driven optimism. After the close, Cisco Systems jumped 18% in extended trading following an earnings beat and an AI-focused restructuring that includes approximately 4,000 job cuts.On the macro front, inflation continued to reassert itself. April's Producer Price Index rose 6.0% year-over-year — the fastest pace since December 2022 — and climbed 1.4% month-over-month, exceeding consensus on both measures. Core wholesale prices advanced 5.2% annually. The print compounds Tuesday's April CPI reading of 3.7% and a Q1 PCE of 4.5%, stacking a formidable case that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target. The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Boston Fed President Susan Collins separately flagged a potential rate hike as a tail risk should inflationary pressures broaden, though she was careful to characterise it as outside her base case.The 10-year Treasury yield pressed toward 4.5%, and rate-cut expectations for the remainder of the year have largely been priced out ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.Asian markets are trading higher today as investors look to a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for clues on the future of U.S.-China ties and global trade.The Indian rupee weakened for a fourth straight session and plummted to an all-time low of 95.80 per dollar. Despite the government’s move to raise import duties on gold and silver to discourage purchases, the currency remained under pressure amid sustained foreign capital outflows.Government banned sugar exports with immediate effect until September 30, 2026, or until further orders, as the world’s second-largest sugar producer moved to contain rising domestic prices. The restrictions apply to both raw and white sugar exports, although shipments already in the pipeline will be permitted under specified conditions.Nifty snapped its four-session losing streak, rising 33 points to close at 23412. The recovery was supported by strong performance in the metal, oil, and gas sectors, despite continued selling pressure in the IT and Auto stocks. The former support near 23800 is now likely to act as resistance on pullbacks, while immediate downside support is seen around 23100. Indian markets are likely to open higher on strong global cues.

US Markets Retreat as Hormuz Tensions Push Crude HigherAmerican forces struck Iranian military facilities responsible for attacks on warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that US forces "do not seek escalation."Oil resumed its rally Friday after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears that a fragile ceasefire was unravelling and threatening further disruption to one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.The military exchanges injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, with crude jumping roughly 2% in after-hours trading amid revived concerns over energy supply stability and inflation.US equities retreated with the S&P 500 falling 0.38% to 7,337.11 and the Dow shedding 313 points to 49,596.97 — though both indexes remain well above year-ago levels following April's record monthly advance. Losses were driven by a cooldown in technology stocks, with the Dow slipping more than 0.6% after failing to breach the 50,000 threshold.Broadcom shares dropped 4% after reports emerged that its landmark $18 billion AI chip deal with OpenAI is facing a major financing hurdle, contingent on Microsoft committing to purchase roughly 40% of the chips. Should Microsoft decline, the financing terms for the project would need to be renegotiated, casting doubt over the timeline of the high-profile partnership.While long-term appetite for artificial intelligence remains robust, semiconductor firms like Intel and Advanced Micro Devices faced significant pressure, with some shares falling roughly 3%. This retreat follows a period of strong quarterly gains, as investors begin to weigh lofty valuations against actual earnings performance.The Indian rupee strengthened for the second consecutive session yesterday, appreciating by 36 paise to close at 94.25, supported by gains in Asian currencies. Support came from short covering and steady dollar inflows through domestic banks. Nifty extended its alternating trend of gains and losses, slipping marginally by 4 points to settle at 24,326. Despite the profit booking during the second half, the broader technical structure remains intact, with the index sustaining the uptrend. Immediate support is at the 24,000 level, while resistance is near 24,600.Indian markets are likely to open lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryCrude Oil Spikes to $106 on Hormuz Blockade WoesUS stocks closed lower on Thursday, retreating from recent record highs as investors weighed mixed quarterly earnings, fading hopes for a swift diplomatic resolution in Iran, and inflationary pressures. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined, with tech shares underperforming and defensive sectors gaining.The Nasdaq Composite led the declines, down 0.89%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow fell approximately 0.4% each. Market sentiment was dampened by disappointing quarterly results and tempered guidance from key industry players, including ServiceNow and IBM.The retreat followed stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, even as 81% of the 87 S&P 500 companies reporting so far beat earnings estimates.Sentiment improved on Thursday evening, as investors reacted to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension.Intel shares surged more than 20% in extended trading after the chipmaker reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. The upbeat performance was driven by robust demand for data centre processors and artificial intelligence-related workloads, which have become a key growth driver for the company.Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing conflict with Iran and a continued naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude oil prices toward $106 per barrel. These rising energy costs have fueled inflationary concerns, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields across maturities. The benchmark 10-year yield recently traded near 4.3% as investors assessed the potential for sustained high interest rates.Recent economic data indicate a cooling labour market, with weekly jobless claims climbing to 214,000, exceeding previous expectations. Many firms are reportedly holding headcounts steady or only hiring to replace departing workers, a shift from the aggressive hiring seen in prior periods. This trend, combined with sticky inflation, is complicating the Federal Reserve's path for future interest rate decisions.Driven by surging hedging demand and a flight to safe-haven assets, the Indian rupee weakened for a fourth straight day, depreciating 32 paise against the dollar to hit its lowest level this April. Nifty has now entered the gap zone between 24,145 and 23,907, formed on 15 April 2026, which may act as short-term support. On the upside, 24,310 and 24,600 are likely to act as resistance levels.Indian markets are likely to open marginally higher amid strong NASDAQ futures cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryLate-session news of a ceasefire extension lifted US futures after the close.US futures surged 0.5% after President Donald Trump extended the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, saying the extension was warranted due to Tehran’s government being “seriously fractured.” Trump said the ceasefire would continue “until such time as” Iran’s leaders and representatives submit a “unified proposal” to end the war with the U.S. and Israel.Earlier in the regular session, US markets extended losses, with all three benchmarks closing down roughly 0.6% after key diplomatic talks in Pakistan were delayed. The Nasdaq briefly touched a fresh all-time high intraday before fading as peace-deal optimism evaporated.Oil briefly rose before turning lower as investors weighed whether US–Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, hovering near $98/barrel, pared further gains on ceasefire extension hopes.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.29% after a government report showed U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, surpassing economists' expectations. This robust consumer spending data suggests continued economic resilience despite recent geopolitical tensions and high oil prices. Investors analysed Senate confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, who is being considered to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair.First-quarter earnings were mixed. Halliburton posted net income of $461 million despite disruptions in the Middle East. Adobe surged in extended trading after announcing a $25 billion buyback. United Airlines delivered a profitable quarter despite higher fuel costs and geopolitical pressure on international routes.UnitedHealth Group jumped 7% after beating earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook. GE Aerospace and RTX bucked the trend, declining despite their own quarterly beats. A heavy earnings slate on April 22 — Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines, AT&T, and GE Vernova — will offer investors a broader read on corporate health amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.Asian equities opened with a mixed note amid an overnight surge in energy prices and a lack of supportive cues from the global peers.Back home, HCL Tech and Tata Elxsi Q4 results were lower vs expectations, while PNB Housing Finance beat expectations handsomely, and Persistent Systems delivered another resilient quarter. SBI Life Insurance Company, Tech Mahindra, Trent, Bharat Coking Coal, Delta Corp, Havells India, L&T Technology Services, Maharashtra Scooters, Oracle Financial Services Software, Sangam India, and Tata Communications will announce their quarterly earnings on April 22.Nifty extended its winning streak to three sessions yesterday, climbing 211 points to close at 24,576.The rupee weakened for the second consecutive day, depreciating by 37 paise amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Despite buoyant domestic equities and steady FII inflows, it buckled under a strong US dollar and jittery global oil prices.The index has now rallied nearly 11% from the recent swing lows. On the downside, support has shifted higher to the 24,200 level, which can serve as a stop-loss for existing long positions.Indian markets are likely to open marginally lower amid muted global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryHopes of resumption of US–Iran negotiations buoy the marketsUS President Trump signalled a second round of U.S.-Iran talks within two days, potentially to be hosted by Pakistan, to ease tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude plunged to $95 as supply disruption fears faded, while spot gold climbed above $4,800/oz on a softer dollar and risk-on sentiment post-cooler U.S. inflation data.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2% to finish its tenth consecutive positive session, the longest stretch of gains for the index since 2021. This rally has successfully pushed the index back into positive territory for the year 2026 after recovering from earlier geopolitical shocks.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.25% as the March producer price index rose only 0.5%, well below the 1.1% consensus estimate. Cooler inflation data, combined with a retreat in oil prices, has increased market expectations for a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.Asian indices opened higher for a second day on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks. On Monday, Nifty was weighed down by souring global sentiment and a spike in crude oil prices, closing 230 points lower at 23,842. It opened 460 points lower after a breakdown in US-Iran talks, but buyers stepped in at lower levels. Nifty took support at the 20-day EMA and recovered more than 300 points from the low, ending near the high, suggesting strength. The short-term trend of the Nifty remains strong, and the swing low at 23,555 is likely to act as a strong support going forward, while the 24300-24500 band poses near-term resistance.As the quarterly results season picks up, stocks will respond to earnings performance relative to expectations.Indian markets are set to open around 1.5% higher, buoyed by the hopes of resumption in US–Iran negotiations.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefirePresident Trump announced a two-week suspension of military strikes against Iran just hours before his 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline, following last-minute Pakistani diplomatic efforts. Iran agreed to allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, triggering sweeping market moves across oil, equities, currencies, and crypto.WTI Crude Oil tumbled as much as 17% to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Oil had surged above $115 earlier in the session after reports of strikes on Iran's Kharg Island — the hub of roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — before the diplomatic breakthrough reversed the move.After a muted regular session where the S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, and the Dow fell 0.2%, futures exploded higher post-ceasefire announcement. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.2% to 6,804, Nasdaq futures rallied 2.7%, and Dow futures surged 2%, as investors priced in hopes of a durable peace deal and resumption of Gulf oil flows.Spot gold climbed 2.5% to $4,821 per ounce, its highest level since March 19, as the weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for foreign holders. Silver surged 4.7% to $77 per ounce, while platinum gained 2.5%, with all three precious metals benefiting from the risk-on shift and dollar softness following the ceasefire.The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee wraps up its meeting today and will announce its decision at 10:00 AM. The market expects the RBI's MPC to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%.A neutral stance is likely to persist, balancing global risks such as tensions in West Asia with domestic liquidity support, and avoiding further cuts unless growth falters.The Nifty rose 155 points yesterday to close at 23,123, marking its fourth consecutive gain. The Indian rupee extended its four-session winning run, gaining 5 paise to 93.01, fueled by lower crude prices, domestic equity recovery, and RBI-driven unwinding of bank arbitrage positions.Nifty has closed above its 10-day EMA for the first time since the U.S.-Iran-Israel War erupted, also topping last week's high. The short-term trend has reversed, with resistance near 23,800-24000 and support at yesterday's low of 22,719.Indian markets are poised for a strong surge at the open following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and boosting investors' risk appetite.