Stop the World

Do intelligence agencies need to rethink how they deliver assessments to political leaders in the AI age? That's the question at the heart of a new ASPI report, ‘Reading the Room: Redesigning Intelligence Product for the AI Age’. Today STW sits down with its author to dig into the issue. ASPI senior fellow Chris Taylor joins FiveCast co-founder Duane Rivett—whose firm provides open-source intelligence to the security community—to talk through what needs to change and why. The report argues that while Australia's intelligence community has invested heavily in collection with strong results, the way assessments are delivered to decision-makers hasn't kept pace.The conversation covers changing information consumption habits across generations; how AI can adapt and even personalise intelligence products for different leaders and officials; the prospect of intelligence chatbots that can answer policymakers' questions in real time; and the enduring importance of human expert judgement. They also address the risks: losing nuance in a business defined by uncertainty, and the accountability gap when a machine — like a self-driving car — can't be held liable for getting it wrong. Read the report, ‘Reading the Room: Redesigning Intelligence Product for the AI Age’.

This week, ASPI hosted a fireside conversation with Anne Neuberger, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Strategic Advisor to Cisco. Anne was Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor from 2021 to 2025.The conversation focused on cyber security and the impact of AI on geopolitics and cyber resilience. Coming off the back of President Trump’s Executive Order on AI and reports that Australia had been given access to Anthropic’s Mythos model, we decided the conversation was an important one to share with our Stop the World listeners.Hosted by ASPI’s Executive Director, Justin Bassi, he and Anne canvassed the game changing role of artificial intelligence for cyber offence and defence, why democracies need to be the ones to set AI standards, and the lessons that can be learned from our 5G and TikTok experiences when it comes to global AI adoption.This event was held in partnership with Cisco.

Today we’re joined by Kanishka Narayan, Britain’s Minister for AI and Online Safety, who visited Australia last week to sign an MOU on cooperation between Britain’s illustrious AI Security Institute and Australia’s new AI Safety Institute. Kanishka, whose previous roles include a stint in tech investment, was described in a recent British tech publication as a minister who “really gets AI”—and it shows. He discusses his strong view on the need to put democratic values into the development of AI and to ensure it preserves human agency and trust. He discusses Pope Leo XIV’s recent encyclical on AI, the need for middle powers to establish places for themselves in the global AI industry, and his conviction that AI is going to transform all aspects of life, notably our economies and particularly employment—all for the better if we get the policies right.

Yalkun Uluyol, China researcher at Human Rights Watch, joins us to discuss the repression of Uyghurs and other minority groups in China — and why human rights abuses are struggling to stay on the global agenda.Yalkun has spent years documenting abuses in Xinjiang, including mass surveillance, arbitrary detention, forced labour and the suppression of Uyghur identity and culture. He also brings a deeply personal perspective: his own father has been arbitrarily jailed.The conversation explores how the Chinese government is trying to reshape China’s global image, portraying Xinjiang as stable and harmonious despite extensive reporting by Human Rights Watch and others. Yalkun also discusses Beijing’s influence in international institutions, the intimidation of other countries, and the growing difficulty of conducting China research.At a time when wars, economic shocks, great-power competition and artificial intelligence dominate global attention, Yalkun makes the case for why human rights advocacy still matters — and how governments, researchers and citizens can keep these issues in view.The episode also looks at forced labour in Xinjiang and its links to global supply chains, from batteries to Labubu dolls.

Why should we care about the Indo-Pacific? It’s a question sufficiently packed with vitality that Ray Powell and Jim Carouso have for the past two years devoted a weekly podcast to finding the answers. Ray, a former US Air Force Colonel posted as Defence Attache in Canberra, and Jim, longtime diplomat who served as Charge d’Affaires to Australia, join STW this week to unravel all the ways the Indo-Pacific region remains the strategic keystone that is likely to shape the course of the 21st century. We cover a lot of ground—the future of US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and what that means for America’s friends and allies; Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping; China’s project to become the regional hegemon and what that means for the many other countries that call the Indo-Pacific home. Ray and Jim also share their thoughts on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Australia next week, opportunities for economic security cooperation, deepening partnerships with other key Indo-Pacific nations such as the Philippines; the ongoing risks in the South China Sea and the nomination of former Congressman David Brat as US Ambassador to Australia. Ray and Jim have spent most of their careers focussed on the Indo-Pacific region. And their level headed, calm, excellent judgement comes through in this conversation. Watch Ray and Jim’s podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@IPPodcast

Back by popular demand, Florence Gaub joins David Wroe to dissect the latest global developments. Florence is Director of Research at the NATO Defense College and an expert in strategic foresight. She shares her key takeaways on Iran and views on the state of NATO, and offers frank criticism of Europe’s underspending on defence and infrastructure. She discusses how the Iran conflict, following Ukraine and Covid, has underscored the interconnectedness of security, economics, geography, energy and politics. And she talks about interpreting weak signals, the idea of polycrisis, and the impact of fragile dependencies and choke points. Florence and Dave discuss Donald Trump and the challenges of forecasting when individuals as opposed to systems are the prevailing influence over policy. And they also have fun discussing the speculative newspaper ‘North Star’ that Florence and her colleagues released earlier this year for the Munich Security Conference - listen out for the elephants! You can find that newspaper here

Donald Trump’s threats against Greenland spurred Europe to assert itself in ways it has never done before, says former Danish diplomat, national security adviser and top newspaper editor Bo Lidegaard. Six European NATO members went so far as to send troops to the autonomous island territory. Hot on the heels of European President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Australia to sign trade and security agreements, Bo joins Stop the World to talk about the parlous state of global affairs and how Australia and Europe can work together to shape events for the better. Europe lacks the defence industrial base, the energy security and the technology to truly back up its strong diplomatic posture, Bo says—at least for now. Closer cooperation with countries such as Australia are one way that Europe is expanding its strategic options. Pulling together the many strategic threads dominating global headlines, Bo talks discusses Russia’s war against Ukraine, global supply chain fragility, energy and climate change, European innovation and self reliance, and the Iran war’s turbocharging effect on other geostrategic trends.For more on the EU-Australia security and defence agreement, read ASPI's latest Explainer by Bart Hogeveen:https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-eu-australia-security-and-defence-agreement-not-a-pact-but-a-partnership/

Three weeks into Donald Trump’s “Epic Fury” operation in Iran, STW speaks with Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear strategy and non-proliferation expert who runs the Arms Control Wonk blog and directs the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute in California. Jeffrey and David discuss the difficulty of ending Iran’s nuclear program, the United States’ strategy, the hovering spectre of regime change, and the degrading of Iran’s missile capabilities and possibility of their reconstitution. Jeffrey explains the challenge of locking down proliferation of an 80-year-old technology and his view that diplomacy and deterrence need to play hefty roles. And he discusses the culture and psychology of risk in nuclear deterrence in the 21st century. Finally Jeffrey gives his views on China’s nuclear expansion and the dangers that follow the end of the US-Russia New START arms control pact last month. Jeffrey has clear views that don’t always chase convention but are based on his own legwork analysing open source research such as images from commercial satellite pictures. Links: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna joins Stop the World for a conversation about Russia, Iran, the United States and the imperative for smaller countries such as Estonia and Australia to work together. Minister Tsahkna shares frank views from the perspective of his 1.3 million-strong NATO member nation, which borders Russia and is on track to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defence this year. “We’ll bring the war to Russia,” he says, as he calls for countries like Ukraine and Georgia to be embraced more fully into Europe lest they remain targets of Russian predation. He expresses support for the US campaign against Iran but also has some concerns about the signals being sent and the lack of clarity about objectives. He believes Trump is committed to European security if Europe accepts its share of the heavy lifting, and that Putin is ultimately more afraid of Donald Trump than he was of former Presidents Biden or Obama, but that Putin right now is “just playing with Trump” on Ukraine peace talks—indicating untapped potential in Trump’s leverage. As the world’s second largest processor of many rare earths and rare-earth batteries, Estonia can work with Australia to break China’s near-monopoly over these critical resources, he says. And seeking Australian support for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to bring accountability for Russian war crimes in Ukraine, he says shared values are central to closer cooperation.

Today we speak about artificial intelligence and security with Lindsay Gorman, managing director and senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Technology program, and a former senior tech and security adviser in the White House under President Joe Biden. Lindsay and David discuss the fight between the Pentagon and AI company Anthropic, the legitimate concerns of the military, and the Trump Administration’s terrible signal to tech companies that want to support national security. They talk about who should control this megapowerful technology in the future—the state or the private sector? They also cover the US-China tech race, Chinese innovation, authoritarian versus democratic governance of AI, disinformation and deepfakes, and the need for democracies to steer AI towards applications that value freedom and human agency.Mentioned in this episodeDavid Wroe's article on the Pentagon-Anthropic saga and who should control AI: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/pentagon-anthropic-brawl-demands-rethink-of-ai-industry/Looking to keep up with developments in AI and cyber? Subscribe to ASPI's Cyber and Tech Digest: https://aspicts.substack.com/subscribe

Luke de Pulford is executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China – a cross-party network of parliamentarians from more than 40 countries who share concerns about Beijing’s behaviour at home and abroad. Luke, a human rights activist and anti-slavery advocate, recounts how the group came together in 2020, the challenges it faces and how it works to shift the centre of gravity on debates relating to Beijing’s punishment of critics and defiance of international norms. He talks about the challenges of holding China to account even as many countries drift away from taking principled stands, the impact of the United States’ retreat from leadership of the liberal order, and the need to be the squeakiest wheel when pushing human rights cases. He discusses the recent conviction and sentencing of businessman and democracy activist Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, Britain’s shifting position on China relations, and the dilemma for Australia—which counts 20 parliamentarians from the major parties as members of IPAC—in having an economy heavily invested in China and a security strategy invested in the US.

Shashank Joshi is the Economist’s revered Defence Editor. He has deep strategic understanding combined with a rare gift for explaining things clearly. In today’s snappy half-hour episode of STW, Shashank shares his concerns about the future of democracy in the United States, the implications for the rest of the world, and the question of any emerging “Trump doctrine” from the US President’s international interventions. He talks about the impact of Trump’s short and sharp military operations without lengthy entanglements, his options on Iran, the significance of Europe’s firm stand against Trump over Greenland at Davos—which Shashank attended—the deep uncertainty as to Donald Trump’s overarching strategy towards China and the latest military purge by Xi Jinping. A key takeaway is the notion of derisking, which has traditionally applied to countries’ relationships with China but now is being discussed with respect to the US. As Shashank puts it, countries are having to think about a “ruthless purging of the sentimentality” in their US relationships

Today we continue the AI theme with a TSD Summit Sessions conversation on China and AI with Selina Xu, who leads China and AI research and strategic initiatives in the Office of Eric Schmidt. Who is winning the AI race between the US and China? Are they focusing on the same things? Where do China’s capabilities stand today? How is AI being adopted and integrated into economies? What are the benefits of China’s open-source approach? Where does the US maintain a strategic advantage? These are just some of the questions David Wroe tackles with Selina in today’s interview. This podcast really covers a lot of ground, and is a must listen for anyone interested in the development of artificial intelligence and why it matters who is leading the development. It is also timely given the US Administration’s decision this week to allow Nvidia to sell more powerful chips to China, which will likely impact key areas in which Selina says the US has a current advantage, in particular in the field of compute. If you want more regular updates on cyber and tech issues, subscribe to ASPI’s Daily Cyber and Tech Digest via https://aspicts.substack.com/