The Next Housing Cycle Is Here

The Next Housing Cycle Is Here

From STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA by Jamie Lane

March 28, 2026 · 48 min · Episode 174

About this episode

The episode discusses the upcoming housing market cycle and its implications for short-term rental investors.

What happens when home prices stop rising—but the market still starts moving again? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane sits down with Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass, to unpack the biggest housing market shift in years—and why it matters deeply for short-term rental investors. After four years of frozen transaction volume and relentless price growth, 2026 is shaping up to be the beginning of a new cycle. Mike breaks down why home prices are likely to remain flat while incomes gradually catch up—unlocking long-awaited improvements in affordability. But the real story isn’t just pricing—it’s movement. With mortgage lock-in slowly easing and hiring trends poised to play a critical role, we’re entering a phase where transactions begin to rise again, even without dramatic rate cuts. For STR operators, this shift has major implications. From regional price corrections in high-growth markets like Florida and Austin, to the slowdown in migration-driven demand, the conversation reveals where opportunities are emerging—and where caution is warranted. Whether you’re investing, managing, or simply watching the market, this episode gives you the data-driven lens to…

People in this episode

Host: Jamie Lane

Guest: Mike Simonsen

Topics covered

  • housing market
  • short-term rentals
  • affordability
  • real estate trends
  • economic shifts

Keywords

  • home prices
  • transaction volume
  • market shift
  • mortgage lock-in
  • affordability improvements

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Compass

Places: Florida, Austin

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