Strategic Alternatives

The global banking sector is navigating a crosscurrent of geopolitical uncertainty, a historic regulatory reset, and powerful structural forces — from AI adoption to the rise of private credit and stablecoins. In this episode, Gerard Cassidy and Anke Reingen, Co-Heads of Global Financials Research at RBC Capital Markets, discuss where U.S. and European banks stand today and what investors should be watching next.Banks’ fundamentals are strong, but the sector is vulnerable to sustained high oil prices.Smaller regional banks are outperforming the market.AI deployment, consolidation, and a resilient credit outlook are growth drivers.U.S. regulators are supportive; European regulation is softening to match.U.S. commercial loan growth is accelerating, supported by tax changes.Investment banks are posting growth and could benefit from a revival in IPOs.Chapter markers:Introductions [00:07]Host Joe Coletti introduces the podcast and guests: Gerard Cassidy and Anke Reingen, Co-Heads of Global Financials Research. They discuss the strong underlying fundamentals of the banking industry, despite continuing risk from prolonged war in the Middle East.Growth Drivers [06:58]AI deployment, the growth of stablecoins, and continuing consolidation are among the main structural themes driving growth. Loans to NFDIs are a potential concern but banks are less vulnerable than the private credit sector.Regulation [13:30]U.S. regulation is pro-bank, and the easing of capital requirements will feed balance sheet growth, dividend payments, acquisitions, and stock buybacks. Proposed regulation in Europe may soften to ensure its sector is not disadvantaged.Lending Volume [18:15]Commercial loans, bolstered by tax changes, are the biggest element of U.S. loan volume growth. Incentives in Europe also boosted corporate loans, but confidence has since declined.Investment Banks [22:48]Deregulation is strengthening the deal pipeline for investment banks. A rush to M&A before the end date of the U.S. administration could benefit them further.

Developments in technology, sustainability, and global competition will reshape financial institutions. In a conversation at RBC Capital Markets’ Global Financial Institutions Conference, Dr. Bettina Orlopp, CEO of Germany’s Commerzbank, explains her organization’s approach to these forces.

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raise the prospect of a more prolonged energy shock, how should investors think about the implications for inflation, consumer behavior, and markets? Global Head of Commodity Strategy Helima Croft, Chief Economist Frances Donald, and Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina discuss what a disruption in oil supply could mean for the macro outlook — and why the longer‑term picture may be more resilient than headlines suggest.

The current AI cycle, fueled by an unprecedented compute upgrade, is driving a fundamental economic shift. In this panel discussion at this year’s TIMT Conference, Matthew Hedberg, Head of Global TIMT Research, joins John Borthwick, Founder and CEO, Betaworks; Dave Golob, Chief Investment Officer, Francisco Partners; and Greg Turorto, Portfolio Manager, Goldman Sachs, to discuss how investors can navigate future opportunities while avoiding potential investment pitfalls.

Tariffs, currency pressures, a property slump: China faces challenges on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, Australia’s resilient economy risks triggering inflation. How will these and other factors affect the region’s economies in 2026? Joining Rod Ireland, Head of Global Markets for APAC, to break down the outlook are Abbas Keshvani, Asia Macro Strategist, and Rob Thompson, Macro Rates Strategist.

With government spend poised to spike, defense valuations in Europe are at record highs. But the response to global threats brings opportunities for a much wider set of industrials and innovators. Dominic Hudson, Head of Investment Banking for Europe and APAC, is joined by Cliff Bayer, Head of Aerospace, Defense and Government Services; Rob Jurd, Head of Industrials for Europe; and Claire Sturgess, Head of Canadian Industrials and CME Investment Banking, to explore the sector’s outlook for 2026.

What are the options for global economies’ monetary policy in 2026, and are the markets pricing in the right moves? Jason Daw, Head of North American Rates Strategy, is joined by fellow rates experts from across the globe to set out their projections for the year ahead, and assess the likely impact on bond yields and curves.

Growth is too low for comfort, inflation is too high. What are the prospects of the U.S. breaking out of its ‘stagflation-lite’ zone in 2026? For this annual economic outlook, Vito Sperduto is joined by Chief Economist Frances Donald and U.S. Economist Michael Reid, to analyze the likely impact of the labor market, consumer sentiment, public spending, and other key trends.

The prevailing bear case suggests AI's rapid rise is eclipsing traditional software growth. New research from RBC Capital Markets takes a more nuanced view. In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Matthew Hedberg, Head of Global TIMT Research, and Nate Mahrer, TMT Desk Sector Strategist, examine why reports of software's decline have been overstated and discuss how software vendors can strategically position themselves to capitalize on AI opportunities.

Earnings sentiment is fading and there’s widespread recognition that the current stretched valuations will see a correction. So how should equities players best navigate this environment? New Head of Global Equities, James Masserio, joins Vito Sperduto to analyze the market’s prospects in this episode of RBC Capital Markets’ Strategic Alternatives.

Across the industrials space, M&A activity ranges from ‘challenging yet steady’ to highly robust. Following RBC’s Global Industrials Conference 2025, this episode of Strategic Alternatives examines the mood of the sector. Joshua Rosenbaum, Global Head of Industrials, leads the specialists in assessing which sub-sectors are showing strength, and whether solid balance sheets and a potentially benign regulatory environment can set the stage for a broader wave of deals.

Natural gas markets are experiencing structural shifts as demand from power generation and data centers creates new growth opportunities. Industry leaders are adapting their capital strategies to capitalize on these trends while managing financial complexity. CFO Jeremy Knop shares insight on EQT Corporation’s transformation, the company's innovative $3.5 billion midstream joint venture with Blackstone and how integrated business models are transforming investment strategies in the natural gas sector.

Private credit has outpaced growth expectations in recent years — but where is it headed next? In this episode of Strategic Alternatives, Robert Griffith, Global Head of Senior Relationship Management, speaks with Eric Wise, Head of Alternate Finance, and Jason Goss, Head of European Solutions and Structured Products, about innovation in private credit and how issuers can navigate this rapidly evolving market.