Ten years after the Paris Climate Agreement

This eight-part podcast series examines the Paris Agreement ten years on, featuring global climate leaders discussing progress, challenges, and the dramatic shift in power towards emerging economies. The series explores how multilateral cooperation has evolved despite geopolitical fractures, from industrial transformation and innovative financing to the changing rules of climate leadership. This episode focuses what happens in wake of COP 30 and how countries can cooperate on climate issues despite geopolitical turbulance. The podcast is based on 28 interviews carried out globally by journalist Sophie Larmoyer on behalf of IDDRI, the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. The final episode opens where the series began: with the question of whether global cooperation on climate is still possible. The answer, from every voice heard here, is yes. But not in the same way, and not with the same players. Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in January 2025 is the unavoidable backdrop. But rather than a death knell, contributors treat it as a reorganizing force. Episode Seven: civil society, a driving force for change? Ana Toni, director of COP30, put it plainly: "One federal government has decided to leave the Paris Agreement. But we have 197 other countries that stayed and are committed to climate change. Carbon molecules don't have passports." For Sonja Klinsky of the University of Arizona, the withdrawal may even create unexpected opportunities. "Sometimes maybe it's even useful having the United States out of the room for a while," she argued, "because maybe we'll start to pay attention to the diversity of countries." Her warning against premature conclusions was equally direct: "We need to be very careful that we don't start declaring the death of multilateralism because of one country being really difficult." The coalition that showed up in Belém COP30 itself demonstrated the point. Trump had no coalition. The real coalition was the one that gathered in Belém. Episode Six: finance, the heart of the matter The episode moves through the economic conditions of the transition, with Maria Mendiluce of We Mean Business making the case for mandated green procurement as the fastest route to scale. The hardest work, as Antoine Oger of the Institute for European Environmental Policy noted, lies ahead: the heavy industries, steel, aluminium, energy-intensive manufacturing, that have no affordable alternative to gas and whose decarbonization will define whether the transition is real or merely partial. On trade, the picture is shifting. With three-quarters of global commerce still conducted under common rules despite American tariffs, Daniel Buira of Tempus Analytica sketched what a genuinely useful green trade deal might look like: Europe securing green iron from Mexico, South Africa, and Brazil, saving its steel industry while fulfilling climate obligations through the supply chain rather than solely through domestic production. Episode Five: how to face climate challenges in a fragmented world Brazil emerges from the episode as a credible host and bridge builder. Laurence Tubiana of the European Climate Foundation identified what set it apart: "Brazil is a deeply multilateral country, which has the ability to speak to everyone." An incredibly dynamic civil society, a government that has demonstrably reduced Amazon deforestation since Lula's return, and a business community that increasingly sees decarbonization as a development model rather than a constraint: these combined to give COP30 a different character from its predecessor in Azerbaijan. Episode Four: climate crises - the urgency to adapt Out of Belém came a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, with Colombia mobilising a coalition of more than 80 countries and hosting a follow-up conference in April 2026. The Tropical Forests Forever fund, proposed by Brazil and detailed here by Emilio Lebre La Rovere of the University of Rio, represents one of the episode's most concrete ideas. It would reward countries across Amazonia, Indonesia, and the Congo basin not through emissions calculations but on the basis of area successfully protected from deforestation, with 20% of resources ring-fenced for the indigenous communities who are the forests' most effective guardians. Episode Three: energy, the key to success Leadership is moving south On leadership, the episode is unambiguous: it is shifting. Sébastien Treyer, director of IDDRI, offered the clearest account of what 2025 revealed. "It's better to have common rules and the broadest possible multilateral cooperation than to do nothing," he said, summarising the consensus of countries that chose to stay. But he did not flinch from the implication. "Perhaps we'll find ourselves in an evolution of multilateralism where a certain number of things will be defined more by China, India, South Africa, and Brazil than by Europe. We will have to accept that there will be definitions that come from elsewhere, otherwise we will not get out of it." Episode Two: the decarbonisation quest For the countries of the Global South, the demand is no longer simply for more finance. It is for a different relationship altogether. As Nisreen Elsaim, the young Sudanese activist who runs through this series like a thread, put it: "The global South is something you hear in every conversation. You hear the impact. But when you talk about power share, you talk about the US, you talk about China, you talk about Europe. So why are we always the impact, not the proactive?" Sonja Klinsky framed the same challenge from a different angle, calling it the most exciting and most difficult task in the global transition. Developing countries must meet persistently unmet development needs while simultaneously pursuing green industrialization, something the Global North never had to do. "Countries who can figure that out," she said, "that's where the real leadership is going to come from." Episode One: behind the scenes of a historic agreement Hope is not enough The final word belongs to Elsaim, and it is the right choice. Asked about hope, she refused the easy answer. Hope without benchmarks, she said, was illusion. "But if you're talking about the ability to envision a better future and work for this future, and you call it hope, then I am definitely hopeful."

This eight-part podcast series examines the Paris Agreement ten years on, featuring global climate leaders discussing progress, challenges, and the dramatic shift in power towards emerging economies. The series explores how multilateral cooperation has evolved despite geopolitical fractures, from industrial transformation and innovative financing to the changing rules of climate leadership. This episode focuses on finance and explains why money remains the central issue in the fight against climate change. The podcast is based on 28 interviews carried out globally by journalist Sophie Larmoyer on behalf of IDDRI, the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. Rich countries pledged $100 billion annually in 2009 to help developing nations tackle climate change. By COP29 in 2024, that target rose to $300 billion. Yet experts now say we need $1.3 trillion per year. Episode Five: How to face climate challenges in a fragmented world? The gap is stark. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in summer 2025: "Africa is home to 60% of the world's best solar resources, but it received just 2% of global clean energy investment last year." For many developing countries, ambitious climate plans remain theoretical without funding. Sudanese activist Nisreen Elsaim puts it simply: "There's always money to develop this piece of paper, but there is never money to actually implement it." Private capital: essential but uneven Private investment must drive the transition, yet it flows unevenly. Renewable energy projects in Africa face risk premiums four times higher than identical projects in Europe. Without public guarantees to "de-risk" these investments, developing countries pay the price. Episode Four: climate crises - the urgency to adapt India shows how markets can shift. When the country launched its solar programme in the 2010s, private finance was scarce. Today, it attracts around $50 billion annually in clean energy investment, mostly from private sources. Loss and damage: a breakthrough unfulfilled After 30 years of advocacy, COP28 in Dubai established a Loss and Damage Fund in 2023, addressing the irreversible impacts of climate change. Over the past two decades, the 55 most vulnerable countries have suffered about $580 billion in climate damages. Episode Three: energy, the key to success Yet two years after its creation, the fund hasn't reached $1 billion. Contributions remain voluntary. Reforming the old order The World Bank and International Monetary Fund, created in 1944, now face calls for fundamental reform. Their governance structures remain locked in by northern countries and are seen as inadequate for today's climate emergency. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has led the charge with her "Bridgetown Agenda", demanding wholesale reform. The scale of action required isn't hundreds of billions, she argues, but thousands of billions annually. Episode Two: the decarbonisation quest Meanwhile, new players have emerged. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the BRICS New Development Bank, both based in China, represent alternative governance models that are already functioning. New tools for new challenges Innovative mechanisms are emerging. "Just Energy Transition Partnerships" provide tailored funding for countries like South Africa and Vietnam to shift away from fossil fuels whilst supporting affected workers. Episode One: behind the scenes of a historic agreement There's growing momentum for new taxes targeting major polluters. A working group led by Laurence Tubiana is exploring levies on aviation, shipping, fossil fuel production and cryptocurrency mining. She calculates that a tax on first and business class airline tickets plus a modest $1 levy per barrel of oil "amounts to at least $500 billion per year." As Brazilian climate official Ana Toni notes: "Who is polluting should be paying." The tools exist. The question is whether political will can match the scale of the crisis. Listen to this episode to find out.

This eight-part podcast series examining the Paris Agreement ten years on, featuring global climate leaders discussing progress, challenges, and the dramatic shift in power towards emerging economies. The series explores how multilateral cooperation has evolved despite geopolitical fractures, from industrial transformation and innovative financing to the changing rules of climate leadership. This episode looks at the challenges in adapting to climate change.The podcast is based on 28 interviews carried out globally by journalist Sophie Larmoyer on behalf of IDDRI, the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. A decade after the Paris Agreement, climate adaptation has emerged as an urgent priority as impacts intensify globally, yet implementation remains fragmented and catastrophically underfunded despite mounting evidence of existential threats. Rising seas and mounting losses Sea levels have risen 23 centimetres since the early twentieth century, now accelerating at 4.4 millimetres annually - twice the rate of the 1990s. For atoll nations such as the Marshall Islands, barely two metres above sea level, this poses existential threats. Wells once used for washing now contain only brackish water, forcing complete reliance on rainwater. Impacts have become ubiquitous and severe. In India, 75 percent of districts are now hotspots for extreme climate events affecting 80 percent of the population. Europe has suffered €738 billion in climate damages and 240,000 deaths over four decades, with summer 2025 alone costing €43 billion. The adaptation funding gap The Paris Agreement established a Global Adaptation Goal in 2015, but progress remains disconnected. Adaptation fundamentally addresses inequalities, as vulnerability stems from poverty and lack of resources. Maladaptation poses significant risks when well-intentioned actions worsen problems—sea walls may flood neighbouring areas, whilst irrigation systems become unsustainable as droughts intensify. Adaptation plans require massive financing, primarily from public funds. A 2023 UN report estimated needs at 10 to 18 times current financial flows dedicated to adaptation. Adaptation remains fundamentally local, varying dramatically between regions. The construction sector faces challenges scaling existing solutions for both cold and heat protection as urbanisation accelerates, particularly in Africa. Agriculture represents a critical frontier. Sahel and North African countries lead in reimagining farming through agroecological transitions, whilst India promotes climate-resilient millets and solar-powered irrigation. Wealthy countries with high productivity resist change, claiming competitive pressures preclude environmental protection. According to the experts interviewed for this series, businesses must measure climate risks across supply chains to adapt effectively. Insurers increasingly refuse coverage in California and Florida, with certain properties becoming uninsurable earlier than anticipated. The fundamental challenge, they agree, remains defining risk tolerance, which varies greatly between societies. Current trajectories suggest global warming of three degrees - four degrees for France - rendering adaptation to such conditions illusory.

Ten years after Paris, this eight-part series brings together leading voices on climate action to assess what's been achieved and what's gone wrong. Through conversations with experts from across the globe, it charts how international cooperation has adapted amid rising geopolitical tensions, tracks the evolution of climate finance and policy, and examines the shifting balance of influence as developing nations claim greater authority.This episode focuses on worldwide efforts to reduce carbon emissions and evaluates their outcomes.The podcast is based on 28 interviews carried out globally by journalist Sophie Larmoyer on behalf of IDDRI, the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. A decade after the Paris Agreement, global decarbonisation efforts reveal mixed results with notable regional progress undermined by continued emissions growth, leaving the world on track for dangerous warming levels despite improved climate governance and private sector engagement. Temperatures continue rising at 0.3 degrees per decade due to human activities, with 2024 marking 1.52 degrees above pre-industrial levels. At current emission rates of 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C will be exhausted within three years. Carbon sink effectiveness is diminishing as ecosystems weaken under climate stress, with French forests halving their carbon capture capacity in fifteen years whilst Czech forests have become net emitters. The Paris Agreement's framework of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) has achieved incremental progress. "What we have seen in ten years is really an improvement, level by level, where we have managed to contain projections", observed Sébastien Treyer of IDDRI. Initial projections of 6°C warming have been reduced to approximately 2°C if all policies are implemented. Second-generation NDCs demonstrate significantly improved quality, featuring sectoral plans, economy-wide targets and comprehensive gas coverage rather than merely aspirational targets. Regional leaders emerge Ten G20 countries or regions have reached peak emissions, marking declining trajectories. Europe, the United States since 2005, and China in the first quarter of 2025 have reduced greenhouse gas output. Around 23 to 25 countries globally have decreased emissions since the early twenty-first century. Europe demonstrates strongest leadership with one-third emissions reductions achieved and trajectory towards 55 percent reduction by 2030. The clean energy sector contributed one-third of EU growth in 2023. China presents the most dramatic transformation, potentially reaching peak emissions in 2025—five years ahead of its 2030 target. "China has become the superpower of clean technologies in the world", noted Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute. This shift occurs despite continued heavy coal dependence. Brazil's emissions trajectory depends entirely on political will regarding deforestation. Under President Lula, annual deforestation rates have fallen 40 percent compared to 2022, following devastating increases under Bolsonaro. Between 2004 and 2010, Brazil reduced emissions by one billion tonnes annually through cutting deforestation to one-fifth previous levels. Strong governance mechanisms prove crucial for sustained progress. South Africa's presidential climate commission sits directly with the president, creating robust institutional capacity. Chile's inclusive stakeholder process produced carbon budgets and climate plans resilient to government changes. Some 70 countries have adopted long-term strategies whilst 145 have made carbon neutrality commitments. Resistance and obstacles Progress faces significant obstacles. Emerging economies question whether development without fossil fuels is achievable at scale. Political regression threatens existing targets, with European elections in June 2024 strengthening conservative and far-right forces. "We would be satisfied with the unsatisfactory because there is a strong threat of regression", warned climatologist Christophe Cassou. Social barriers have emerged prominently since 2019–2020 as transition losers resist change. Disinformation campaigns contest solution effectiveness despite scientific evidence, particularly regarding electric vehicles. Fossil fuel subsidies remain nine times greater than renewable energy support. The fossil fuel sector maintains strong presence in climate negotiations whilst continuing massive investments in new oil and gas fields alongside renewables. "When you add fossil fuels and renewables, that's not what we call the energy transition", observed Treyer. Private sector engagement remains uneven. The We Mean Business coalition has grown from 150 companies in 2015 to 20,000 today, including 10,000 SMEs through the SME Climate Hub. Yet greenwashing persists alongside genuine transformation efforts. Difficult-to-decarbonise sectors show mixed results. Swedish steel group SSAB has demonstrated green hydrogen steel production at scale, cutting Sweden's national emissions by 3 percent initially with plans for additional 7 percent reductions through a €4.5 billion investment by 2028. Automotive customers demand low-carbon steel to meet their own decarbonisation targets. Construction sector progress has been offset by growth. Saint-Gobain reduced emissions by 34 percent between 2017 and 2024, yet global materials production increases in China, India and high-growth countries have compensated for these efforts. Projections suggest as many buildings will be constructed in the next thirty years as currently exist, creating unprecedented challenges despite improved building codes such as France's RE2020.