The 10-Minute Take

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has officially started with games spanning cities across North America, drawing spectators from all over the world. But as it creates buzz, it won't distract from the headwinds still facing Canada’s economy.In Q1, gross domestic product contracted by a small annualized 0.1% to mark a second consecutive decline. However, the contraction is marginal and narrow—not the kind of sharp, persistent, and broad-based deterioration typical of recessions in the past.The World Cup in coming months will give Canada's economy a temporary lift. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down Canada's underlying economic trends as FIFA games gets underway.

We're back for season four! In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow. South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdownHow the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate economic disruptions.What alternative private sector indicators reveal about the current state of the U.S. economy.The Fed's likely path forward amid the data blackout and trade uncertainty.

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points. But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border. In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drove these decisions and why they view the Fed’s action as a step toward policy normalization—not easing. Later, they shift their focus to Canada, where a mixed data picture begs the question: will the BoC cut rates again in October?

Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.

Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.

Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack: • How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher. • How higher energy prices could impact growth. • What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.