The Ag Commodity Corner+

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#China #tradedeal #Bull #New #AG #CFTC #cattleonfeed #soybean #billion #Iran #war #crude #fertilizer #drought #HRW #NVDA #agenticAI #CPU #cattle The NEW U.S.-China $17 billion trade deal of “non-soybean” purchases for 26, 27 and 28 is very bullish ag!The end to the Iran/U.S. war is near as both crude oil & fertilizer fall.U.S. drought in the West and Southeast is slowly bleeding East and North.U.S. HRW P/VP conditions increased again to the worst ever!The godfather of AI (NVDA) beat all metrics with new revenue from Agentic AI & CPU’s.Cattle on Feed bullish + CFTC.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #May #crop #surprise #dud#CFTC #endingstocks #redhot #corn #exports #winterwheat #Brazil #CFTC # dry#soybeans #wheat #canola #HRW #OK #Kansas #Brazil #beef #hogs #pseudorabies#Iowa #Mexico #stocks #China #Trump #Xi $5 corn, $12 soybeans, $7 wheat & $750 canola! Is the top in and the party over with lower crude oil and an end to the Iran war? The 2026 USDA May report could see ending stocks fall further due to red-hot U.S. corn exports, lower HRW production and lower Brazil corn production? OK HRW wheat tour sees crop down 50% + Kansas Quality Council Wheat tour next week. Headline news that U.S. could import Brazilian beef weighed on cattle futures. Headline news of pseudorabies disease found in hogs in Iowa and #1 buyer Mexico may restrict exports weighed on hog futures. Stocks are on fire. 5 senators are in China planning ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting on May 14/15. + CFTC.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#HRW #wheat #drought #rain #frost #CFTC #NOAA #2022 #USDA #cropprogress #rumors #China #soybeans #PNW #weather #Midwest #CanadianPrairies #Brazil #corn #dry #Kalshi #commodity #Trump #blockade #Isreal #Lebanon NOAA reported that U.S. HRW wheat was 70% in a drought ties the 2022 drought! USDA crop progress reported 47% of the HRW wheat in poor/very poor. The weather forecast looks wet and cool for the U.S. Midwest with snow for the Canadian Prairies. Central Brazil Safrinha corn crop looks dry for the next 2-weeks. Rumors that China was looking to but old crop U.S. soybeans out of the PNW. Kalsi (betting platform) has entered the commodity space with bets of where corn futures will be in the future. Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, but blockade remains while the ceasefire with Israel and Lebanon was extended by 3 weeks + CFTC.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #12Hour #ceasefire #USDA #dud #planting #season #HRW #wheat #rain #livecattle #footandmouth #China #pork #exports #CFTC #April #Hormuz A 2-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasted 12 hours. The USDA April crop report was a dud. The 2026 planting season does not look early. U.S. HRW wheat country needs a lot more rain. Live cattle traded to new record highs! Foot & Mouth disease in China, U.S. pork exports +2% + CFTC update and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #acreage #shock #surprise #RVO #CFTC #biofuel #E15 #war #Iran#Trump #Xi #China #hogs #pigs #friendly #bullish Next week's USDA reports (acreage/stocks) could be a surprise/market moving. RVO’s (new blending biofuel requirements) were as expected with no big surprises and already baked into futures. E15 summer waiver just simply good optics. Markets are skeptical that the war in Iran ends soon with no diplomatic off ramp. The Trump/Xi meeting in China now May 14 – 15. March 1 USDA hogs and Pigs report was friendly/bullish + CFTC and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#goldrush #grain #markets #CFTC #inflation #2022 #repeat #corn #policy #StraitofHormuz #military #demand #crudeoil #ag #commodities #undervalued #basket #USDA #dud #China #Brazil #Russia #CPI #diesel #fertilizer #urea Could this be the beginning of the return of higher inflation and a repeat of 2022 when corn traded to a high of $8.27/bu? Policy will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz military can if not we need to destroy demand and send crude oil futures much higher! The ag commodities remain undervalued vs. other commodities with the basket up +4.9%. USDA March Crop report a dud, and inflation will be higher in the coming months + more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#funds #long #grain #oilseed #2025 #bullish #CFTC #managedmoney #bull #AI #rotation #tech #ag #commodities #king #wallstreet #Trump #tariff #FDN #crude #weather The funds (managed money) crowd/spec are now net long the grain complex! The AI King Nvidia reported 4th quarter earnings that surpassed Wallstreet estimates but the stock falls? Trump retaliates against U.S. supreme court decision to impose an additional 15% global tariff. FDN (First Day Notice) and month end fund selling in March futures were absent in 2026. Crude oil futures adding more geo-politics, weather turns more active for March, plus South America weather and the latest CFTC report.

*Apologies! In this week's podcast, where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408. Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#WIN #soybeans #trade #truce #extension #USDA #Xi #Trump #China #ethanol #45Z #phospahtes #fertilizer #corn #technical #wheat USDA took Trump's comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#crudeoil #Iran #silver #gold #metal #CFTC #Trump #nuclear #China #Russia #middleeast ##kalshi #E15 #Iowa #Australia #heatdome #Tonga Crude oil prices are spiking on concerns that Trump might attack Iran over their nuclear program and China/Russia vowed to protect Iran a large oil producer in the Middle East. Silver plunges 61.4% and gold carters by 19%! Kalshi markets was predicting a U.S. government shutdown again at 87.3% but it was averted last minute. Trump vowed to pass E15 in Iowa this week. Australia seeing a heat dome and record temps of 50 degrees Celsius while the Tonga volcano is erupting again in the Pacific Ocean.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07Wat9ZrMo0&list=PLw_19gpIg9cQIGriCrrqlZkwr_Mo_5oqo#USDA #january #bearish #canada #china #tradedeal #corn #soybeans #wheat #silverbullet #E15 #biofuel #canola #EV #Iran #crudeoil #geopolitics #soybeanoil #silver #drought #CFTC #parabolic The USDA January crop report shocked the grain trade with a bearish report finding more bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat for 2025. But strong demand and talk of finalizing biofuel and adding E15 in Washington helped forge a low near-term in the grain markets. Canola futures traded higher on news that China and Canada reached a trade deal on canola/EV tariffs. China has finally bought their 12 mmt of U.S. soybean commitment now what? WTI crude oil fell after Trump decided not to attack Iran and silver remained parabolic.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #corn #bushels #soybean #wheat #China #pork #Trump #demand #silver #gold#Argentina #CFTC Fund year-end, end of quarter and end of month selling has weighed on the grain markets. Will the USDA provide a gift in January and do seasonals kick in. Rumors that China was buying U.S. corn could add fuel to the fire.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #China #soybean #StatsCanada #Ontario #Quebec #canola #corn #wheat #Fed #commodities #Bitcoin #Mexico #screworm #beef ##cattle #hogs #Australia #Spain #ASF #Europe #pork #raubs #Brazil #CFTC #CanadianDollar #NaturalGas Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception? Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold. The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it? A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end. More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000. A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend. Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies. Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term. If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months! Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in. CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week. Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #deleveraging #bearish #ugly #bull #weakness #stocks #investors #AI#USDA #soybeans #China #Brazil #corm #ethanol #crush #NVDA #Blackwell #GPU #phosphate #biofuel #beef #coffee#CFTC #funds The rapid decline in Bitcoin down 58% is resulting in a “risk off” sentiment and the deleveraging could see a break below support at $80,000 (a double top on the daily chart is bearish). The daily chart is ugly as is the weekly chart. Bitcoin has broken the long-term channel bull. The weakness has spilled over into stocks as investors sell high risk stocks like in the AI crowd as they worry that the growth rates are unsustainable. With the U.S. government reopen we did finally start seeing daily flash USDA sales of U.S. soybeans to China and our tracker has China at 15% of the 12 mmt by yearend. But this is more about politics/economics not who is more competitive the U.S. or Brazil. U.S. domestic corn, ethanol and soybean crush demand remains red hot! U.S. corn and wheat exports are the best in the past 10 years while U.S. soybean exports remain the worse in the last 10 years. The highly anticipated NVDA 3rd quarter earnings did not disappoint as revenues are accelerating with the new Blackwell chip. Demand is off the charts and NVDA GPU chips are sold out until the end of 2026. This does not include Chinese demand nor any new UAE sales. Investors remain concerned that this growth is unsustainable. This is till the beginning not the end not a mature industry. BIG PICTURE remains unchanged. There is a growing concern about Brazil’s soybean planting pace falling behind from irregular rains. Ther Trump administration lowered tariffs on MAP, DAP and potash a WIN for farmers, but we still need China a major phosphate exporter to release more supplies and lessen the pain moving forward. The Trump administration delaying the biofuel import credit cuts on biofuels will weigh on soyoil futures but may have also put in a near-term ceiling in soybeans as we need to constantly feed the bull. Trump promised to wage a war on high U.S. beef prices and finally removed the 40% tariffs on coffee and beef. The daily chart looks ugly on live and feeder cattle futures, but the weekly chart shows a correction in a long-term bull market. Today’s cattle of feed report reminded everyone that fundamentals remain very tight. The backward-looking CFTC (Commitment of Traders Report) showed the funds were still short the grain complex but after the rally in the ag commodities in futures in October we know that they have been buying. We estimate the funds are long soybean futures anywhere between 100,000 top 160,000 vs. record long 253,000 in 2012.