The Bayesian Conspiracy

Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and website Guild of the Rose Paid Bonus content for the week – Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. probably returning someday.

In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy cows make their misery expensive (but their calves can’t) by Elizabeth Being John Rawls by Scott Alexander – audio of Being John Rawls WestWorld Should Anyone Be Vegan by Henry Stanley Does your AI perform badly because you — you, specifically — are a bad person by Natalie Cargill FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets Plzdontkillus The Mind Killer Ep 69 NFT Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:00:42 – Feedback 00:15:14 – Eating Delicious Animals 01:38:09 – Westworld & Violent Video Games 01:56:35 – Guild of the Rose 01:57:16 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply to Ronny from Lightcone Only Law Can Prevent Extinction by Eliezer Yudkowsky Audio version of above Paid Bonus content for the week – Video 00:00:01 – Quick life catch-up 00:06:29 – Right to be Wrong about Doom 01:23:47 – Steven likes Huel a lot 01:25:28 – Guild of the Rose 01:27:50 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning someday

We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism, directing your donations, and community. LINKS Why you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoods Donations, The Fifth Year, by Jenn Promises, by Harri Bayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective Altruism The Case For Sardines “oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff” article Gwern on AI Slop Jenn on AI Slop & Virginia Woolf Paid Bonus content for the week – Full Video, Preshow Chat 00:02:23 – Feedback 00:17:20 – You Should Eat Meat 00:59:33 – Directing Donations 01:23:04 – Promises of EA 01:38:06 – Guild of the Rose 01:40:12 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning someday

We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMs LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the AFFINE Seminar is to give promising newcomers to AI alignment an opportunity to acquire a deep understanding of some large pieces of the problem, making them better equipped for work on the mitigation of AI existential risk. AFFINE Alignment Seminar Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:00:49 – Announcements & Feedback 00:42:15 – Writing for AI 01:23:15 – AFFINE Alignment Seminar 01:31:11 – Guild of the Rose 01:33:37 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer. LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWho William’s blog, “As Our Days” ACX Non-Book Review 2025 Winners Post Just HPMOR substack, and Spotify playlist Why the AI Water Issue Has Nothing to Do With Water (and audio version here, again from AskWho) Money is Life Eneasz’s post on InkHaven Inkhaven.Blog – apply today! Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:04:33 – Announcements & Feedback 00:27:24 – Eneasz’s Podcast Meta-Worries 00:28:21 – HPMOR Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer 01:28:17 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:18 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year.

Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details. LINKS The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026. Lighthaven is once again seeking support. If you’re inclined to help, check out all of the details here. Related, our interview with Oliver from last year. Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch) We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to enhance my ability to think more deeply about the stories I consume and enjoy them even more. My hope is that this meta-conversation will encourage anyone who hasn’t listened to the Doofcast or anything else Doof! Media has put out to give it a shot and see what you’ve been missing out on. Unfortunately, we were unable to coordinate a time for Matt’s cohost Scott to join us so hopefully I did an ok job making this entertaining and fun with only one expert guest. Shoutout to Skyler Crossman, the Less Wrong community organizer extraordinaire! LINKS Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts! The Magnus Archives Bob Ross on AI Slop East Coast Mega Meetup 00:00:05 – Diving into stories 01:47:42 – Interlude with Eneasz about the East Coast Mega Meetup! 01:52:31 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch) We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life. LINKS It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts! Flanagan’s Wake 00:00:05 – Matt Freeman 01:55:23 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch) We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything, Jay’s substack Jay on Twitter Arbor Trading Bootcamp Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies 00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay 01:28:53 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:00 – Miscellanea 01:40:58 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” The Measure of a Man episode Darmok episode Kyle Fish on 80,000 Hours podcast Contra Shrimp Welfare UBI Doesn’t Work 00:00:05 – The Void 01:29:17 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:10 – Miscellanea 01:40:57 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

Do we need to be concerned for the welfare of AIs today? What about the near future? Eleos AI Research is asking exactly that. LINKS Eleos AI Research People for the Ethical Treatment of Reinforcement Learners Bees Can’t Suffer? Lena, by qntm When AI Seems Conscious Experience Machines, Rob’s substack The War on General Computation WaPo on Blake Lemoine Discordianism Twitter for: Eleos, Rob Long, Rosie Campbell Apply for InkHaven 00:00:05 – AI Welfare 01:22:33 – InkHaven 01:27:49 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:55 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer