1 Billion Barrels Lost: Fitch Ratings on Stagflation Risks

About this episode

Brian Coulton from Fitch Ratings discusses the stagflation risks arising from the ongoing Iran War and its impact on global oil supply.

It has been two months since the start of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery carrying 20% of the world’s oil and 40% of Malaysia’s crude imports. Despite early optimistic projections of a four-week resolution, the deadlock has entered its ninth week, with global supply losses reaching 1 billion barrels. So, is this still just a "temporary shock"? Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, joins The Breakfast Grille to audit the growing stagflation threat, a toxic mix of rising prices and falling output. We explore why Asia is uniquely exposed as a net oil importer, why equity markets are dangerously disconnected from energy realities, and why the "fragile" global job market is the real trigger for a 2026 recession. Image Credit: Shutterstock See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People in this episode

Host: The Breakfast Grille

Guest: Brian Coulton

Topics covered

• stagflation
• oil supply
• global economy
• Asia
• recession
• energy markets

Keywords

• stagflation
• oil imports
• global supply
• recession
• energy markets
• Asia
• Fitch Ratings

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Fitch Ratings

Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Malaysia

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