The China-Global South Podcast

Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness. The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same time. Ker Gibbs, a longtime China-based executive and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explores this contradiction in his new book, The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities. Ker joins Eric from San Francisco to discuss his decades of experience working in China and what companies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere need to understand before entering the Chinese market today. 📌 Topics Covered in This Episode China's competing narratives of economic strength and weakness Why weak consumer demand remains a major challenge The role of exports in sustaining China's growth model How Xi Jinping's policies are reshaping the economy What foreign companies need to know before entering the China market Why China's economic trajectory matters for the Global South Show Notes: Amazon: The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities by Ker Gibbs The New York Times: China's Spending Slowdown Deepens as Households Tighten Their Belts by Keith Bradsher Reuters: G7 Leaders Tackle Reliance on China for Critical Minerals Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries. Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's potential gains from the Iran war Energy insecurity and the global transition shift Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains Is China the biggest winner of the crisis? Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory The China-Global South Project: Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action by Li Shuo The China-Global South Project: Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty by Li Shuo Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals. There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But senior officials in Beijing have also made clear that they have little interest in taking on the full responsibilities and obligations that come with traditional global leadership. In a recent Foreign Policy article, Jeremy Friedman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, explored the limits and ambitions of China's expanding international power. He joins Eric to discuss what China wants… and what it does not want from a changing global order. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's global ambitions The future of U.S. power Why Beijing rejects hegemony Taiwan and regional security Trade, tech, and critical minerals The emerging world order Show Notes: Foreign Policy: How Far Do China's Ambitions Reach? by Jeremy Friedman East Asia Forum: China's ambitions are narrower than Washington thinks by David Kang, Jackie Wong & Zenobia Chan Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China operates the world's largest fleet of deep-sea research vessels, with more than 40 ships officially tasked with civilian scientific missions. But an investigation by CNN and the environmental news outlet Mongabay found that many of these ships appear to operate in ways more in line with intelligence gathering than with purely scientific research. The CNN/Mongabay investigation tracked eight vessels over a five-year period and found that they spent very little time conducting their stated objective to do deep-sea mining research and instead, according to marine trafficking data, logged extensive trips in strategic waterways and sensitive military zones that could prove critical in the event of a future maritime conflict with the United States. Kara Fox, a senior reporter at CNN, and Elizabeth Alberts, a senior staff writer at Mongabay, led the joint investigation and join Eric to discuss what their findings do... and don't reveal about China's fleet of deep-sea research vessels. Show Notes: CNN: China's growing influence in the Pacific is 5,000 meters deep by Kara Fox, Elizabeth Alberts, Lou Robinson and Byron Manley Mongabay: China's deep-sea mining fleet may also track US submarines by Elizabeth Alberts and Kara Fox 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode China's growing fleet of deep-sea research vessels Allegations of dual-use scientific and intelligence activities Deep-sea mining and the race for critical minerals Why India, the U.S., and others are increasingly concerned The strategic importance of undersea mapping and maritime routes Environmental risks linked to deep-sea mining exploration Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The United States and China are pursuing sharply different strategies in a region that is no longer best understood as the "Middle East," but as part of a broader Asian-centered geopolitical system historically described as "West Asia." This vast region stretches from countries along the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean. While the U.S. remains the undisputed military hegemon in this theater, China is steadily becoming the indispensable economic power, providing access to vast pools of capital, new technology, and expanding trade. Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a director at the geopolitical advisory firm McLarty Associates, joins Eric from Washington, D.C., to discuss his new book that explores how the U.S., China, and other powers are adapting to this new expanded view of the Middle East known as "West Asia." Purchase the book: West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East by Mohammed Soliman 📌 Topics covered in this episode: • Why the Middle East is increasingly being reframed as West Asia • China's quiet diplomatic outreach to Israel and the Palestinians • Surging Chinese trade and bank lending in the Gulf • The Asianization of Gulf economies through trade, energy, and demographics • Whether China will translate economic power into military presence • America's role as a resident security power with 50000 troops in the region • Why U.S. grand strategy may require doing more with less in West Asia • The India Middle East Europe Corridor and connectivity as instruments of power • AI compute infrastructure and the Gulf's post-oil transformation • Israel's evolving role in regional security architecture • How great power competition is reshaping alliances and coalitions • Whether values or interests will define the next phase of U.S. engagement Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy. Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity. And while all of that was certainly true when it comes to state-backed Chinese entities that used to be at the forefront of the BRI, new data from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University reveals that Chinese private enterprises are now leading the way. Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what led to a record year of BRI engagement around the world. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: China's Belt and Road investment surge in 2025 Why the BRI narrative of decline no longer holds Africa's return as a top destination for Chinese investment The rise of fossil fuel projects alongside green energy How geopolitics and US trade policy shape BRI decisions The growing role of Chinese private companies overseas What the latest BRI data signals for the years ahead Show Notes: Green Finance and Development Center: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 Financial Times: Beijing pours cash into Belt and Road financing in global resources grab by Edward White The Economist: China's Belt and Road Initiative is booming again Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth