The Coal Trader

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkAs global commodity markets transition through late summer and look toward the post-monsoon restocking season, hosts Matt Warder and Joe Aldina break down the shifting supply and demand dynamics across metallurgical and thermal coal. The guys highlight how the shoulder-season price floor has firmly formed, supported by early Chinese restocking of seaborne met coal and an unforeseen supply shock stemming from a major underground mine fire at Allegheny’s Longview high-vol operation in West Virginia.Across the globe, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continue to underpin energy markets, from Middle Eastern tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks driving European natural gas prices (TTF and JKM) above $21/MMBtu to tight domestic thermal power dynamics in the U.S. PJM and MISO markets. With Australian producers gearing up for earnings reports and high-beta names showing technical strength amid rising short interest, the hosts emphasize an "accumulate" strategy on market dips as coal equities continue to decouple positively from early-summer lowsStocks Mentioned:U.S. Equities: AMR, METC, HCC, CNR, BTU, ARLP, NRP, HNRG (Hallador)International Equities: YAL (Yancoal), WHC (Whitehaven Coal), NHC (New Hope), SMR (Stanmore), TGA (Thungela Resources)Connect With Us:👉 Subscribe to the Newsletter: TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More Commodity Market Commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkMatt and Joe sit down in person in to rip through a month’s worth of action: thermal coal’s rerate off sub-$90, a steadier met tape, Warrior’s standout quarter on Blue Creek volumes, why spreads inside the met stack are normalizing, and how to think about cycles, contracts, and capital returns. We wrap with a hefty listener Q&A on valuations, rare earth hype, PRB vs East basin setups, and whether coal’s longer cycles really give you an investing edge.Featured equities discussed: Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco ($METC), Glencore ($GLEN.L), Whitehaven Coal ($WHX.AX)👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.Thermal CoalEurope: API2 drifting near the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady around the ~$100-110 range in shoulder season.Asia: China/India imports look strong; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal rose ~$40 → ~$43; CN-destined 5,500 kcal ~ ~$65 → ~$70.Met CoalPricing: Off the ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.Supply: BHP to shut the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of other Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.Policy & Cost CurvesInflation + royalties have lifted global cost floors - what used to be peaks now looks like today’s support.U.S. Power & GasData-center load + new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.Equities & PositioningWatch for M&A overhangs and buyback/clean balance sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.Listener Q&A HighlightsCoronado (CRN.AX): U.S. assets solid, but Australia remains royalty/price sensitive; path forward hinges on cost work and price relief.China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand to India.Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.

Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkTickers Mentioned: $BTU, $ARLP, $AMR, $HCC, $METC, $GLEN.LIn this debut episode, Matt and Joe break down the fundamentals of the global coal market - starting with a deep dive into U.S. thermal coal basins and how they feed into domestic power demand and global exports.We cover:Key differences between thermal and metallurgical coal and their market driversU.S. coal basin economics: from Wyoming to AppalachiaHow coal prices translate to cash flow and margins for major U.S. producersGlobal price benchmarks: API2, Newcastle, Richards BayWhat’s driving recent price trends in China, India, Europe, and U.S. utilitiesA primer on the steel cycle, metallurgical coal quality specs, and which companies stand to benefitFeatured equities: Core Natural Resources, Peabody Energy, Alliance Resource Partners, Alpha Metallurgical, Warrior Met Coal, Ramaco, Glencore, and WhitehavenExpect data-backed insights, real margin math, and honest takes on where the coal market stands - and where it’s heading.Subscribe at ⁠TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at ⁠thecoaltrader.substack.com.Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder For more commodity market commentary visit the Clear Commodity website at https://clearcommodity.net/