What is the bond market telling us?

What is the bond market telling us?

From The DeFi Report by Michael Nadeau

February 18, 2026 · 37 min · Episode 7

About this episode

Mike and Ryan analyze bond market signals and their implications for risk and investment strategies.

Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals 6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative 9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets 12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble? 15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era 19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts 22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks 26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts 29:57 Consumer Behavior…

People in this episode

Host: Mike

Guest: Ryan

Topics covered

  • bond market analysis
  • risk-off assets
  • stock market breadth
  • AI investment
  • portfolio positioning
  • economic impacts

Keywords

  • bond market
  • Treasury auction
  • real yields
  • stock market
  • AI capex
  • Bitcoin
  • portfolio positioning
  • risk-off assets

Sponsors

Galaxy

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: THE DEFI REPORT, TradFi, AI, Fed, Bitcoin

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