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From 14 epsHosts
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Recent episodes
Monday - May 4, 2026
May 4, 2026
17m 59s
Corrections, Manias, and the Lessons of History
May 1, 2026
31m 52s
Thursday - April 30, 2026
Apr 30, 2026
8m 35s
Wednesday - April 29, 2026
Apr 29, 2026
7m 58s
Tuesday - April 28, 2026
Apr 28, 2026
7m 46s
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| Date | Episode | Topics | Guests | Brands | Places | Keywords | Sponsor | Length | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/4/26 | Monday - May 4, 2026 | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42MhQwc David Bahnsen reviews a modest market pullback amid escalating Iran-related rhetoric and Strait of Hormuz risks: the Dow fell 557 points, the 10-year yield rose to 4.4%, and oil jumped above $105 while energy was the only S&P 500 sector up. He notes the unusually fast rebound from March volatility and points listeners to prior analysis on corrections vs bubbles and AI. In policy news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure a rescue and may face Chapter 7 liquidation. He discusses midterm dynamics favoring GOP Senate odds, very low initial jobless claims (190k), steady ISM manufacturing (52.7) with weaker employment, and travel-agency employment as a disruption case study for AI. CapEx is increasingly concentrated in large-cap tech/AI while small business investment plans hit a 2009-low. He covers administration frustration with Powell, futures implying little chance of cuts, and growing scrutiny of Fed independence. He cites Exxon on inventories masking supply stress and notes OPEC+ developments, midstream strength, and flat US rig counts. 00:00 Market Jitters and Iran 02:16 Correction Recovery Context 03:47 Sector Moves and Energy 04:04 Spirit Airlines Policy Fallout 04:56 Midterm Math and Senate Outlook 06:42 Jobs and Manufacturing Pulse 07:25 Travel Jobs and AI Disruption 08:55 CapEx Concentrated in AI 10:08 Fed Politics and Rate Path 11:46 Fed Independence and Swap Lines 13:02 Oil Inventories and Hormuz Impact 14:44 Energy Earnings and Rig Count 15:45 Wrap Up and Viewer Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 17m 59s | ||||||
| 5/1/26 | Corrections, Manias, and the Lessons of History✨ | market correctionsinvestor responses+4 | — | The Bahnsen GroupDividendCafe.com+2 | — | market drawdownsbubbles+5 | — | 31m 52s | |
| 4/30/26 | Thursday - April 30, 2026✨ | market analysisearnings report+4 | — | DowS&P 500+3 | — | market reboundearnings+5 | — | 8m 35s | |
| 4/29/26 | Wednesday - April 29, 2026✨ | market recapoil prices+5 | — | UAEOPEC+5 | — | DowNasdaq+7 | — | 7m 58s | |
| 4/28/26 | Tuesday - April 28, 2026✨ | market recapAI technology+3 | — | OpenAIGemini+3 | Middle EastStrait of Hormuz | market closeNASDAQ+8 | — | 7m 46s | |
| 4/27/26 | Monday - April 27, 2026✨ | market newseconomic updates+4 | — | Spirit AirlinesWalsh-led Fed+3 | Strait of Hormuz | dividendsmarket wrap+5 | — | 13m 52s | |
| 4/24/26 | The Latest on the Long Lost Fed✨ | Federal ReserveKevin Warsh+4 | — | DOJSenate Banking Committee+3 | — | Federal ReserveKevin Warsh+5 | — | 21m 02s | |
| 4/23/26 | Thursday - April 23, 2026✨ | stock market recapeconomic data+3 | — | AIprivate credit+6 | West Palm Beach | stock marketeconomic data+6 | — | 8m 57s | |
| 4/22/26 | Wednesday - April 22, 2026✨ | market rallydividend yields+5 | — | Dividend CafeTrump administration+1 | United States | market rallydividend yields+8 | — | 8m 32s | |
| 4/21/26 | Tuesday - April 21, 2026✨ | market recapgeopolitics+4 | — | Senate Banking CommitteeDOJ+1 | IranU.S.+1 | market rotationmarket close+6 | — | 10m 30s | |
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| 4/20/26 | Monday - April 20, 2026✨ | market recapIran war impact+4 | — | The Bahnsen GroupDOJ+5 | Newport BeachNew York | Iran warmarket recap+5 | — | 14m 17s | |
| 4/17/26 | The Truth About AI Disruption✨ | AI disruptionsoftware investing+4 | — | GoogleMicrosoft+6 | Strait of Hormuz | AI disruptionsoftware investing+5 | — | 30m 13s | |
| 4/16/26 | Thursday - April 16, 2026✨ | market analysisAI regulation+3 | — | AnthropicDividendCafe.com+1 | — | market reboundNasdaq+5 | — | 8m 33s | |
| 4/15/26 | Wednesday - April 15, 2026✨ | market recapV-shaped recovery+5 | — | S&PNasdaq+5 | — | market rallyS&P 500+7 | — | 7m 12s | |
| 4/14/26 | Tuesday - April 14, 2026✨ | stock marketIran conflict+4 | — | The Bahnsen Group | IranStrait of Hormuz | stock marketIran+5 | — | 9m 20s | |
| 4/13/26 | Monday - April 13, 2026 | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cmGmIS In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David recaps a volatile session in which futures fell 400–500 points after Iran negotiations failed, then markets rallied into the close as investors weighed a new U.S. strategy: a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz aimed at halting Iranian trade and forcing reopening. Oil spiked about 8% overnight but ended up roughly 1.5% to around $98, while estimates suggest the blockade could cost Iran about $275M/day in exports and $150M/day in imports. Bahnsen expects continued volatility and notes a tariff threat tied to arms sales to Iran was not taken seriously by markets. He also reviews CPI (3.3% headline, 2.6% core; gasoline up 21% MoM), weak existing home sales, uncertainty around Fed leadership and rate cuts, why U.S. producers focus on futures pricing, and the start of earnings season, with an AI-focused episode planned Friday. 00:00 Market Whiplash Recap 00:43 Iran Blockade Strategy 01:35 Oil Spike and Volatility 02:59 Blockade Costs and Outlook 04:05 Inflation and Tariff Talk 04:55 Housing Market Check 05:24 Fed Uncertainty and Rates 06:25 Why US Oil Output Lags 07:19 Earnings and AI Preview 07:39 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 10m 03s | ||||||
| 4/10/26 | What’s Next in Iran and Markets? | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4c53g8A David Bahnsen reviews a volatile market week dominated by headlines around an Iran war and a newly announced two‑week ceasefire, noting that markets largely “didn’t buy” extreme rhetoric and then rallied sharply on ceasefire news amid oil price swings and rapid trader unwinds. He argues key terms remain unclear (Strait of Hormuz activity, enforcement, nuclear capability, enriched uranium, regional actors), and expects zigs and zags that could mean more volatility, while concluding the president appears biased toward ending the conflict sooner, potentially via concessions. Bahnsen emphasizes that short-term market moves are not sustainable signals and urges investors toward “non-action”: a properly constructed portfolio should not change because of Iran. He expects oil to settle higher than pre-war, an ambiguous economic backdrop, double‑digit earnings already priced in, AI returning to focus, and a “muddle through” market with high valuations. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:24 Markets React to War Headlines 03:37 Ceasefire Uncertainty and Open Questions 08:52 Investor Expectations and Volatility 11:58 Why Headlines Mislead Markets 13:31 Portfolio Discipline Through Conflict 14:19 Five Takeaways for Markets 16:39 Post Iran Market Themes 18:10 Closing Thoughts and Next Week Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 20m 12s | ||||||
| 4/9/26 | Thursday - April 9, 2026 | In this April 9 Dividend Cafe Weekly Market Commentary, Brian Szytel recaps markets following a strong prior-day rally with notable breadth (about 82% of NYSE names advancing), then discusses how Iran/Israel/Lebanon developments and ceasefire talks are contributing to a tenuous market backdrop despite continued gains across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. He reviews moves in yields and oil, including a sharp prior-day drop and a rebound, and explains the strategic and longer-term economic implications of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Seitel also answers a common question on the VIX as a measure of expected volatility and a potential contrarian indicator rather than a timing tool. He closes with key data points: February PCE inflation, jobless claims, weaker personal income, personal spending, and a lower final revision to Q4 GDP. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Rally and Breadth 00:43 Geopolitics Driving Sentiment 01:46 Oil Shock and Ceasefire Talks 02:32 Strait Closure Stakes 03:11 Long Term Global Workarounds 04:12 What the VIX Means 05:08 Key Economic Data Rundown 06:10 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 8m 02s | ||||||
| 4/8/26 | Wednesday - April 8, 2026 | Brian Szytel recaps a record rally on Wednesday, April 8, with the Dow up 2.85% (1325 points), S&P 500 up 2.5%, and Nasdaq up 2.8%, driven by news of a two-week U.S. extension for Iran negotiations tied to a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that sent WTI oil down 16%, helping CPI and Fed futures price in greater odds of rate cuts; bonds also rallied slightly with the 10-year ending near 4.30%. He notes the S&P has risen six straight sessions and is within ~3% of its January closing high, argues investors must stay invested through headline-driven volatility, and discusses ongoing strategic risks around Iran’s control of shipping lanes and implications for global GDP. He answers a question on who is most affected by Hormuz disruptions, citing Bahrain as most vulnerable and Kuwait as better buffered by sovereign wealth funds, and highlights March FOMC minutes showing concerns about higher inflation and softening labor. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:26 Oil Shock and Fed Bets 01:38 Staying Invested Through Volatility 02:38 Strait Strategy and Risks 03:18 Who Gets Hit Hardest 04:24 Global GDP Lens 04:56 FOMC Minutes and Wrap 05:18 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 7m 15s | ||||||
| 4/7/26 | Tuesday - April 7, 2026 | Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe from West Palm Beach on April 7, noting low market volume and heightened geopolitical risk tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz, with markets down about 1%, 10-year yields up slightly, and oil prices higher. He shifts to fundamentals, highlighting forward operating margins near 19.7%, the highest in index history, and argues that while higher energy costs may pressure margins, profitability provides resilience despite a roughly 7% pullback from highs. He discusses convergence in EPS growth between the “Mag 7” and the other S&P 493, helping explain rotation, with multiple compression in Mag 7 and expansion elsewhere. Economic data showed durable goods orders missing expectations. On AI layoffs, he says lower Fed funds aims to spur demand but can’t address structural, technology-driven labor shifts. 00:00 Market Open And Headlines 00:21 Geopolitical Risk Moves Markets 00:54 Earnings And Margin Strength 02:23 Mag Seven Rotation Shift 03:17 Durable Goods Economic Check 03:42 AI Layoffs And Fed Policy 05:46 Wrap Up And Next Steps Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 7m 50s | ||||||
| 4/6/26 | Monday - April 6, 2026 | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/41gK4Pa Markets rose for a fourth straight day despite rising Iran tensions and higher oil, with modest gains across the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. David Bahnsen underscores ongoing market rotation: all Mag 7 names are in bear‑market or double‑digit declines while the S&P is down just 9%, showing strength elsewhere. Oil spikes offer no predictive value after ~10% pullbacks. Private‑credit defaults remain low at 1.27%. AI/tech sentiment has cooled, though valuations remain a risk. Policy uncertainty includes potential NATO withdrawal. Economic data shows 178,000 March jobs (boosted by a strike reversal), delayed data‑center projects, a $57.3B trade deficit, softer ISM services, mortgage rates near 6.5%, and steep oil backwardation amid sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz shipping. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:46 Markets and War Headlines 02:45 Rotation Beyond Mag Seven 04:46 Oil Spike History and Sectors 06:02 Private Credit Defaults 06:53 AI Sentiment Reset 08:13 Politics and Big News 09:22 NATO Exit Threat 10:49 Jobs and Data Centers 12:54 Trade ISM Housing Fed 15:03 Energy Futures and Shipping 17:36 Wrap Up and Next Reports Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 20m 02s | ||||||
| 4/2/26 | Energy Investing with or without Iran | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OfQbjF This week’s Dividend Cafe is released Thursday ahead of the Good Friday market holiday and addresses market volatility driven by a supply shock and geopolitical turmoil around Iran, including swings in WTI crude from the 60s to above $109 amid expectations around the President’s speech and fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption. David argues these headline-driven price moves should not be the basis for energy investing; instead, energy is foundational to economic growth—“energy transformed”—with both physical and human (metaphysical) components that create goods, services, profits, and prosperity. Bahnsen contends investors were underweight energy, noting energy’s very low share of S&P 500 capitalization despite its broad, evergreen economic importance and recent sector gains. The energy thesis is positioned as decades-long, extending beyond oil and gas to the wider energy ecosystem and infrastructure, including electricity needs tied to data centers. 00:00 Welcome and holiday timing 00:22 Energy headlines and market volatility 01:21 Energy transformed drives growth 02:20 WTI spike and supply shock 03:47 Why not trade the chart 04:46 Physical and human energy 06:59 Supply plus wise transformation 07:59 Energy ecosystem and data centers 10:10 S&P 500 energy underweight 11:50 War questions miss the point 13:46 How energy companies make money 15:59 Beyond oil and gas thesis 16:56 Easter sign off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 19m 00s | ||||||
| 4/1/26 | Wednesday - April 1, 2026 | Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on April 1, noting a positive market day with the S&P up about 0.5% and the NASDAQ up nearly 0.8% while the 10-year yield is around 4.32%. He attributes improved sentiment to a robust rally tied to Iran-related news and expectations of a potentially positive announcement from President Trump. He emphasizes the need for objective, non-politicized asset allocation focused on markets and the economy rather than geopolitical prognostication. Addressing a common question, he explains why Middle East disruptions can raise U.S. oil prices: oil is a global commodity and U.S. refineries are geared toward heavier Brent crude even though the U.S. produces much light sweet crude, with about one-third of consumption imported. He highlights stronger-than-expected ADP payrolls, February retail sales, and an ISM manufacturing beat, keeping both services and manufacturing in expansion. 00:00 Market Open And Q2 Kickoff 00:33 Iran Headlines And Trump Update 01:05 Staying Objective As Investors 02:41 Why Oil Prices Rise Globally 04:00 Key Economic Data Beats 04:54 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 7m 08s | ||||||
| 3/30/26 | Monday - March 30, 2026 | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dTkNSp The Monday Dividend Cafe recaps sharp intraday volatility as the Dow finished slightly up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down, with financials and utilities outperforming and industrials and technology lagging; the Nasdaq is down about 10% since the recent selloff began and many “Mag Seven” stocks are down over 20%, alongside steep declines in bitcoin and other high-risk names. David describes a broad risk-off posture intensified by the Iran-related military situation, notes WTI around $104 (up roughly 50% since the war began), and highlights relative strength in energy, midstream, refiners, and other commodity-sensitive areas. Bond yields remain elevated but the 10-year fell about nine basis points to 4.35%, and he argues long-end term premium is likely too high. He advises against disrupting a coherent investment plan amid uncertainty, covers brief policy updates (DHS funding, a 401(k) private markets rule proposal, David Sachs leaving his crypto/AI role, an Anthropic-related court ruling, and Fed futures), and previews an energy-focused Dividend Cafe later in the week. 00:00 Market Whipsaw Recap 00:48 Risk Curve Reality Check 01:59 Bonds Yields and Term Premium 03:25 Sector Winners and Losers 04:18 Stay the Course Investing 05:48 War Headlines and Uncertainty 06:37 Policy Updates and 401k Rule 07:56 Housing and Fed Odds 08:39 Oil Midstream and Wrap Up 09:03 Closing Notes and Week Ahead Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 11m 48s | ||||||
| 3/27/26 | Can the Bull Market Continue? | Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bzTmf0 David Bahnsen reviews recent market weakness and volatility and asks whether the secular bull market remains structurally intact, arguing the exact start date (2009, 2019, or late 2022) is ultimately semantic. He says bull markets are driven by corporate profits and sentiment rooted in economic reality, and that long-term history trends upward despite periodic recessions, geopolitical shocks, and bear markets. To assess sustainability, he focuses on three factors: labor markets, financial conditions, and corporate profits. He describes “purgatory” data—benign jobless claims but weaker hiring intentions and openings; tightening but not extreme credit conditions; and strong expected profit growth that is also vulnerable to disappointment amid high valuations. He concludes portfolio positioning matters more than predictions, emphasizing dividend growth investing as a defensive approach for both accumulators and retirees. 00:00 Bull Market Check-In 01:30 When Did It Start 04:34 Why Definitions Don’t Matter 05:04 What Ends Bull Markets 10:07 Labor Market Purgatory 12:06 Tightening Financial Conditions 13:35 Corporate Profits Outlook 14:59 Portfolio Takeaways 15:36 Why Dividend Growth Wins 17:53 Final Thoughts and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com | 20m 42s | ||||||
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