The Dividend Cafe

Brian Szytel recaps a Wednesday session that began with a recovery bounce led by technology as interest rates and WTI fell, but the rally fizzled and selling in tech resumed while value names held up better. He says markets are digesting valuation pressure with stocks trading around 22–23x earnings and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could affect oil prices. He highlights the 2s/10s spread flattening from about 80 bps earlier in the year to about 26 bps, suggesting slowing growth and potential Fed policy risk as inflation remains a concern; markets imply a high chance of at least one rate hike by year-end. The key data point was weak May new home sales (580k vs 640k expected) and elevated unsold new-home inventory at 9.4 months amid high mortgage rates. 00:00 Market Bounce Fizzles 00:44 Valuations and Oil Risk 01:35 Yield Curve Warning Signs 02:00 Fed Policy and Rate Hike Odds 03:15 Listener Question on Spreads 04:03 Housing Data Miss 05:11 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vxzpNy David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from Grand Rapids during the Acton Institute Symposium, noting a relatively quiet day that allows more market focus. The Dow rose 148 points while the S&P fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33% amid weakness in communication services and mega-cap names. He highlights strong year-to-date energy performance, surprising small-cap outperformance, and argues much of the market’s gain is concentrated in AI/AI-adjacent and energy. Bahnsen cites speculative behavior in the SpaceX IPO, including extreme trading volume, limited float, and a sharp decline from recent highs. Bonds sold off with the 10-year at 4.51% and the 2/10 spread flattening to 28 bps from ~80 bps. He shares an anecdote about Allbirds rebranding to “Smartbird” to pivot to AI, covers UK political instability, Iran-US talks, pending US housing legislation, mortgage rates, Fed hike probabilities, Alan Greenspan’s death at 100, and oil falling to $75.19 as Hormuz uncertainty persists. 00:00 Welcome and agenda 01:24 Market close snapshot 02:19 Sector leadership and breadth 03:06 Small caps surprise strength 03:49 SpaceX IPO mania 06:23 Rates and yield curve shift 07:13 AI bubble anecdote 08:57 UK politics and US policy 09:59 Fed odds and Greenspan 11:08 Oil and energy outlook 12:06 Wrap up and reminders Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 Market Rally Snapshot 00:44 Sector Winners and Losers 01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check 02:33 Jobless Claims Update 02:54 Yield Curve Flattening 03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO. 00:00 Market Recap Overview 00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot 01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence 02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally 03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals 04:07 What Drawdown Means 05:02 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4wQ3FUF From the Reagan Library during a week of speeches, David Bahnsen discusses the politicized debate over Federal Reserve independence following Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair and the recent Trump–Powell conflict. He argues the Fed is not constitutionally independent: Congress created it in 1913, set its mandate (including via Humphrey-Hawkins), requires semiannual reporting, and presidents appoint governors who serve staggered terms and cannot be fired without cause. Bahnsen notes monetary policy is inherently political because it affects prices, employment, and government borrowing, and he cites historical Fed–Treasury coordination in the 1990s crises, 2008 (TARP/AIG), and 2020 (CARES Act). He calls for Congress to clarify the Fed’s legal structure and increase oversight, supports practical independence from political pressure, and criticizes both election-driven rate cuts and Phillips-curve-driven tightening. 00:00 Intro to Today's Topic 01:41 Warsh Pick and Market Reaction 03:08 Why Fed Independence Matters 05:37 Trump Quote on Independence 06:11 Fed Origins and Legal Structure 08:46 Why Monetary Policy Is Political 10:22 Crisis Coordination Examples 13:35 Do We Want Independence 15:25 Congress Oversight and Reform 17:11 Warsh Expectations and Fed Fixes 19:49 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps the first trading day after Memorial Day as markets mostly rose despite fluid US-Iran geopolitical headlines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh record highs while the Dow finished slightly lower after recovering from deeper losses. He notes strong rallies in semiconductors and AI-related tech, warning of potential exuberance as charts look parabolic, alongside lower oil prices and a drop in the 10-year yield to 4.49%. Economic updates included consumer confidence at 93 (above expectations) and a modest softening in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which he attributes to affordability pressures but suggests a 2006-style collapse is unlikely due to supply constraints and high homeowner equity. He also addresses why S&P 500 dividend yield is lower, discusses the nuances of buybacks versus net share issuance, and explains a preference for rising dividend income over buybacks. 00:00 Welcome Back Overview 00:27 Geopolitics And Market Reaction 01:02 Tech Rally And Exuberance 01:36 Oil Rates And Deal Odds 02:38 Record Highs Year Context 03:09 Economic Data Confidence Housing 03:39 Housing Market Why Softening 04:29 S&P Dividend Yield Question 06:03 Buybacks Versus Dividends 06:58 Wrap Up And Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a positive market turnaround from Miami Beach after Hightower leadership meetings, with the Dow up about 280 points, the S&P up ~15 bps, and the Nasdaq up ~10 bps; year-to-date, the Dow is up ~5%, the S&P ~9%, and the Nasdaq ~13%. Rates were little changed with the 10-year around 4.56%, and WTI oil was slightly down amid reports of a potential Saudi-linked development in the Iran conflict. He discusses persistent core inflation across CPI, PPI, and PCE as demand growth outpaces supply growth alongside rising money supply, while maintaining the thesis of a 1% real Fed funds rate but with higher inflation expectations (now ~2.5–3%) implying a higher terminal Fed funds range. Economic data included slightly better housing starts (~1.5M), in-line jobless claims (209k), strong flash manufacturing PMI (55.3), and slightly softer services PMI (50.9), and he explains why markets focus on results versus expectations. 00:00 Welcome and Updates 00:52 Market Close Recap 01:44 Inflation and Fed Outlook 03:32 Today Economic Data 04:30 How to Read Data 05:33 Wrap Up and Thanks 05:53 Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4nErXgi David Bahnsen records Monday’s Dividend Cafe from Miami, noting a prior deep dive on U.S. national debt and then reviewing markets after an S&P 500 “melt up” led by semiconductors, the Mag Seven, and AI, followed by a pullback tied to sharply rising bond yields, with the 10-year near 4.6% and higher yields a potential catalyst for equity weakness. He flags poor market breadth, mentions a $67B Dominion–NextEra utility merger connected to data-center power demand, and highlights AI’s dominance in new high-yield, investment-grade, and venture funding plus global index concentration in semiconductors. He also covers U.S.–China announcements (Boeing planes, agricultural purchases, tariff oversight), Iran uncertainty, industrial production gains, weak homebuilder sentiment, incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh amid no-cut expectations, and oil near $106 with limited rig-count response. 00:00 Miami Intro and Debt Recap 00:55 Market Pullback and Yield Spike 03:52 Breadth Warning and Utility Merger 05:04 AI Concentration and Momentum Risk 07:43 US China Summit and Iran Tensions 09:47 Economic Data and Fed Outlook 11:46 Oil Surge and Rig Count Reality 12:55 Ask TBG and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com