The Dividend Cafe

In this midweek Dividend Cafe (Thursday, July 9), Brian Szytel notes a mixed recovery in markets amid renewed volatility tied to Middle East tensions, while oil prices pulled back slightly and interest rates were flat to slightly lower. Economic updates included initial jobless claims coming in a bit better than expected, suggesting steady, healthy employment, and weaker existing home sales (down 3.4% to 4.09 million), reflecting affordability pressures from high rates and a stuck housing market, with modest price declines seen as healthy clearing. He reviews June FOMC minutes showing a divided committee, some discussion of potential hikes, continued attention to AI demand, geopolitical risks, tariffs as a GDP drag, and higher inflation projections for 2026–2027, with expectations split between hikes and no change. He also explains that business cycles persist due to real-economy lags in capital, credit, inventories, labor, and policy transmission. 00:00 Market Recap Volatility 00:46 Jobs And Housing Data 01:32 Housing Affordability Reset 02:37 Fed Minutes Takeaways 03:54 Dot Plot And Guidance 05:05 Why Business Cycles Persist 06:53 Wrap Up And Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a quiet Tuesday, July 7, with markets closing modestly lower amid increased U.S.–Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and restrictions on Iran’s oil exports; crude rose about 3% to roughly $70.56 while gold dipped. Tech led the decline as semiconductors sold off, with the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, the Dow ~0.4%, and the Nasdaq down a little over 1%. Economic news was limited, but May’s U.S. trade deficit widened to $77B, about $20B more than the prior month. Despite the pullback, major indices are up around 10% year-to-date, reflecting a rotation from concentrated chip leaders (some down ~30% in 10 days) into defensives and broader participation. The 10-year yield rose ~7 bps to 4.55%. He also addresses concerns about Q1 profits boosted by mark-to-market gains on non-listed AI holdings, calling it non-recurring and two-sided. 00:00 Market Wrap Intro 00:11 Geopolitics Oil Moves 00:43 Tech Rotation Selloff 01:09 Trade Deficit Update 01:32 Year To Date Perspective 02:28 Rates And Macro Mix 02:39 Ask TBG Earnings Quirk 03:45 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Treasury yield rising from ~3.4% to nearly 4.25% as rate-cut expectations faded, flattening the curve without derailing equity valuations. He discusses AI “vulnerabilities,” noting hyperscalers’ surging CapEx and financing, dispersion across AI-related stocks, and froth signaled by a parabolic semiconductor run and tech’s heavy S&P weight, alongside speculation in meme stocks and levered single-stock ETFs. Economically, tariffs were partially removed, labor data remains mixed, M&A/SPAC activity is strong, energy and small caps have worked, housing has softened, and he reiterates disciplined, fundamental, value-oriented investing. 00:00 Holiday Weekend Welcome 00:36 Midyear Market Setup 01:21 Mag Seven Surprise 03:27 Rates Rise Yet Stocks 04:40 AI Theme Check In 05:28 Capex And Cash Flow 08:08 Valuations And Dispersion 09:50 Semiconductor Froth Warning 12:03 Speculation Beyond Crypto 14:36 Economic Tug Of War 17:14 M&A And SPAC Revival 18:26 Other Themes Scorecard 20:07 Midyear Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a down, rotation-driven market day from West Palm Beach, with the Dow near flat, the S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq weaker amid a sharp semiconductor sell-off (down 5–10%) even as some software and communication services names rose. He cites strong Korean AI chip export growth (70% year over year) but suggests investors may be pricing semis for perpetually outsized growth and reacting to signs of a peak growth rate. Inflation commentary helped rates ease slightly and the yield curve steepened marginally, though the 10-year Treasury ended around 4.48%. Economic data included ADP private payrolls at 98K (below expectations), ISM manufacturing at 53.3 (expansion), and weak construction spending, reflecting housing softness tied to higher rates. He previews a holiday-shortened week and Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. 00:00 Market Open Recap 00:24 Semis Selloff Explained 00:49 Korea Chip Demand Peak 01:34 Rates and Fed Talk 01:53 Index Closes and Yields 02:08 Economic Data Rundown 02:53 Housing Softness 03:31 Rotation and Small Caps 03:48 Jobs Report Preview 04:28 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google’s first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon’s exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index performance supports rotation over correction, and questions whether stock and bond markets are truly pricing Fed rate hikes despite high futures-implied odds; the 10-year ended flat at 4.37%. He reviews Iran-US ceasefire uncertainty and Supreme Court activity, including sending the Lisa Cook firing dispute to lower court for due process while upholding an FTC firing. He flags bipartisan interest in taxing/data-center limits, discusses a likely housing bill with limited impact versus state/local barriers, cites rising supply-chain cost indicators, weak new-home sales and falling prices, notes Fed balance-sheet growth, oil at $70.50, and upcoming JOLTS and jobs data (Thursday). 00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead 02:12 Market Recap and Rotation 04:17 Fed Hike Debate 07:04 Geopolitics and Supreme Court 10:03 Data Centers and Housing Bill 12:59 Economy Housing and Fed Sheet 15:14 Energy and Jobs Week 16:05 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse. 00:00 Market Snapshot 01:03 Economic Data Rundown 02:36 Value Rotation Drivers 02:45 Dividend Growth Power 04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit 05:11 Run on Bank Explained 06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea’s KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%). 00:00 Summer Market Check-In 00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off 01:38 Semis Valuation Reality 02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift 02:48 PMI Data Highlights 03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears 04:32 What Could Replace Dollar 05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers 06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth. 00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday 00:57 Is This the Top 02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger 04:45 The Market Vibe Problem 06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign 09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts 11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals 14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood 16:19 Fed Regime Change 19:53 Do the Right Thing 22:19 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:10 Fed Meeting Recap 01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance 01:55 Five Fed Task Forces 02:44 Reaction Function Critique 04:17 Market Selloff and Yields 05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown 06:02 Economic Data Check 06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania 03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation 05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns 07:28 Economic and Policy Updates 09:13 Housing Sentiment Check 10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week 11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves 11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A 13:37 Knicks Championship Moment 15:31 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com