The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

This year's projected Super El Niño forming in the Pacific could become one of the strongest climate oscillations in over a century. As regions prepare for the effects, and continue to adapt to extreme heat waves, intensifying storms, accelerating ice loss, and increasingly erratic rainfall, scientists and citizens alike are questioning what our new normal will look like under accelerated global heating. From climate basics to unfolding atmospheric research, what do we know about the trajectory our climate is currently on, and what gaps of knowledge still need to be filled? In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for an exploration of the mechanics and mathematics of global heating itself. Tad explains why CO₂ has such an outsized effect in contrast to its small concentration, how water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, and why climate models sometimes get things wrong. His new research, currently under peer review at Geophysical Research Letters, identifies a declining Earth albedo as an additional accelerant of warming over the past 26 years. Combined with accelerating ocean heat absorption, melting ice sheets, and the dynamics of an approaching Super El Niño, Tad argues the warming curve itself may be bending upward. Is the projected Super El Niño a signal of more extreme climatic swings to come? What sort of research is being done to explore and predict climate feedback dynamics that are only partly understood? And if the warming curve is indeed bending upward, what does it mean to plan, prepare, or adapt when the system itself may be moving faster than our models anticipated? (Conversation recorded on June 18th, 2026) About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek's current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Self-fulfilling prophecies; manifestations; the Oedipus Effect: Humanity has long had an intuition that the stories we tell ourselves the most are often the stories we make come true. Science has found more and more evidence to back this up, through both historical cultural analysis as well as unexpected neurological connections in our brains. If we fully accept this, then what sort of future are we telling with our current cultural narratives, and is there still time to write a new one? In this episode, Nate welcomes Rob Hopkins, co-founder of the Transition Network and author of "How to Fall in Love with the Future," for an exploration of what tips people over the edge and into action to build more livable futures, and what role imagination plays in cultural motivation and agency. Rob explains the neuroscience behind envisioning the future, explaining the link between memory and imagination, and how chronic stress and cortisol can shrink our capacity to picture the future. Drawing on research showing that creativity and imagination scores have been declining for decades, he argues that our collective inability to vividly picture a better future may be the deepest barrier to building one. Throughout the conversation, Rob and Nate wrestle with a central tension: how to be honest about the scale of the predicament while still cultivating the kind of longing that moves people to act, and what role grief, limits, and slowing down might play in that process. In a culture that puts many of us in constant states of anxiety and stress, what happens to our ability to imagine and dream of the future? What would it take for more of us to feel, not just intellectually understand, that a lower-energy, more localized future could also be a more beautiful one, if only we plant the seeds for it to grow? And if the tools for building more local, resilient futures already exist, but the first step is to create a sense of longing for them, then what gap does that open up in each of our communities, today, to start putting these ideas into action? (Conversation recorded on April 21st, 2026) About Rob Hopkins: Rob Hopkins is the co-founder of Transition Network and of Transition Town Totnes, and author of several books including "The Transition Handbook" and most recently, "How to Fall in Love with the Future: A Time Traveller's Guide to Changing the World." He is an Ashoka Fellow, has spoken at TED Global and at several TEDx events, and appeared in the 2015 French film phenomenon "Demain." He holds a PhD from the University of Plymouth as well as 2 Honoris Causas, and hosted 100 episodes of his podcast "From What If to What Next." In November 2022 he was made an Honorary Citizen of Liège in Belgium. His collaborative music project with artist Mr Kit, "Field Recordings from the Future" is now available, and is being developed as a live show which will tour in 2026. His website is robhopkins.net. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

The last pre-war shipments of oil products from the Strait of Hormuz have arrived at their destinations as of early May, meaning the promise of an energy crisis as a result of the Iran war is fast approaching. Leading experts are now forecasting energy disruptions ranging from rationing to severe shortages in import-dependent economies, with roughly 11% of global oil supply already offline. This leaves us with the question: even if this war were to end today, what sort of system-wide effects are locked in given the current loss in production, and what will be required of us to cope with the fallout? In this episode, Nate welcomes back petroleum geologist Art Berman to break down the timeline of the looming oil shortages stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and just how severe they could become within a tightly coupled, complex global system. Art explains why, even if the war were to end today, the inherent lags in our industrial supply chains mean shortfalls are already baked into the coming months. The resulting rise in energy prices will reach far beyond the pump, rippling out into the cost of virtually everything and confronting much of the world with conditions not seen in over five decades. Ultimately, Art sees this as a forcing mechanism that could compress decades of needed adjustment into months. The outcome will rely less on policy than on whether societies can absorb the shock without breaking. Amid all the speculation about oil prices in the wake of the Iranian conflict, what do these numbers actually mean in physical terms? If this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, are we already past the peak of the global material economy, with the financial layer not yet caught up to the physics? And if this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, what lessons from our deep past might help us find our way forward? (Conversation recorded on May 6th, 2026) About Art Berman: Art Berman is a petroleum geologist with over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Many of us were taught that humans have been the dominant force shaping the modern world through sheer grit, ingenuity, and innovation. While true to an extent, there are also deep, embedded laws of energy that have both constrained and enabled human cleverness and our influence over our surroundings. What exactly are these laws, and what happened in the past few centuries that allowed for an explosion of technology and consumption? Perhaps more importantly, how can that knowledge help us understand how the decades and centuries ahead might be different? In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for a deep dive into the mathematics and physics driving humanity's energetic and material predicament. Tad walks us through the six great flows of power and materials that keep civilization running, and explains why our public conversation about all of them is dangerously detached from physical reality. He argues that planetary breakdown is not merely a side effect of an economic system built on growing these flows – it is a direct mathematical consequence of overshoot. He rounds out this picture by pointing out that every energy transition in history has been additive, not subtractive – increasing total power in the system – and the current push toward renewables is no exception. What if we were to truly see ourselves through the lens of all the energy we consume – for Americans, the equivalent of a 40-ton whale – would that change how we live? How do technology, population, and per capita energy consumption amplify each other, creating an exponential demand for power? And if we were to acknowledge the inseparability of our ecological crises and our energy blindness, would it help us change our behavior in accordance with the kind of world we'd want our grandchildren to inherit? (Conversation recorded on March 11th, 2026)\ About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek's current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Today's Frankly is the final installment in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Nate frames the entire arc of this series through the concept of the carbon pulse: a one-time inheritance of ancient stored sunlight that humanity is burning through in a few hundred years. He highlights how modern economies, now roughly a thousand times larger than five centuries ago, are built on the assumption that the energy abundance at the top of this curve is permanent, when in reality it is not. Nate traces how money functions as a claim on physical work, not a substitute for it, and how the financial scaffolding that made shale oil viable depends on cheap capital that may not last. He connects this directly to what he calls energy blindness: the absence of biophysical reality from mainstream economic and political analysis. Nate also draws a direct line between the energy crisis and the ecological crisis, framing them as two faces of the same predicament. The carbon pulse created both the unfolding ecological damage from burning too many fossil fuels, and the depletion crisis from drawing them down too fast. He outlines how forests, wildlife, and food systems all face increasing risk from both climate disruption and human desperation, and how geopolitical alliances are fracturing along lines of energy access rather than ideology. The episode closes with Nate's framing of the Great Simplification not as collapse, but as a potential reorientation, as well as an invitation to consider what actually produces human wellbeing: connection, purpose, community, and service. These are satisfactions that predate the carbon pulse, and do not require a barrel of oil. What does it mean to build a civilization on a one-time energy inheritance, and then plan as though it will last? How might individuals and societies begin to reorient around what actually matters, before external circumstances force the issue? And as the carbon pulse peaks, who do we want to be on the way down? (Recorded March 31st, 2025) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners