The Grumpy Strategists

The Grumpy Strategists respond to Australia's defence minister, Richard Marles, discussing and releasing the 'new' 2026 Defence Strategy and investment plan. Marcus sees the spirit of Hiroo Onoda, second last Japanese Imperial Army soldier to surrender after World War Two - 29 years after the war ended in March 1974 alive in Mr Marles today.Like Hiroo, Mr Marles carries the flame of a world that has ended. In Hiroo Onoda's case it was faith in the Emperor and Imperial Japan's impending victory. In Mr Marles' case, it's in an America that remains the beacon of freedom, democracy and liberal values, source of global stability and anchor of the rules based international system. Both Onoda and Marles are romantics with a streak of obsession in their nature. Hiroo didn't get to determine his nation's defence policy, though.Then it's into the hard numbers of the new plan, including the combination of forensic accounting and clairvoyance needed to understand where the massive new headline Defence budget could have emerged from. The episode ends with mines and the curious case of Pete Hegseth accidentally channeling the spirit of Quentin Tarantino and a 1970s Japanese martial arts movie instead of God.....We're in good hands.

Marcus calls into the Grumpy Strategists' Brindabella bunker with unwelcome news on more diesel supplies. After this disappointment, the Grumpies ponder the mystery of the Gulf War - a war without belligerents. Everyone is telling their populations that they are not at war, just engaged in military operations or acts of 'collective self defence'. Here in Canberra, PM Albanese has to remember which side of his mouth he's speaking out of - the quietly supportive "I sent a Wedgetail and I know the US military loves it" side for Washington, or the "Australia has no part in this unpopular war we're just helping our good friend the UAE" side when talking to the Australian people. Then they discuss the paralysis in Australian force structure planning and the contribution that "bipartisanship" on defence policy is causing, right when both major parties are increasingly on the nose.

President Eisenhower's 1961 farewell address warning of the US Military Industrial Complex echoes in Canberra today - but with industry and products replaced in the Canberra version by advisory services, post-career consultancies and invoices.Marcus and Michael discover that biofuel brewing isn't so easy even in a fuel crisis. Feedstock like the National Anti-Corruption Commission's (the NACC) indigestible and philosophically inventive 445 page report into the huge Robodebt scandal proves toxic enough to break the process.And the Grumpy Strategists attend another funeral of a fallen warrior for accountability and transparency when it comes to the $billions spent on Australia's faltering military - the now deceased but invaluable Major Projects Report, killed quietly by a Parliamentary committee that should know better. A new secret Parliamentary committee is apparently the antidote. But anyone who expects Defence's poor performance to improve because it talks to a few well-disposed politicians in a dark room is probably suffering from exposure to the NACC's report..It's a lengthy episode but an important one for anyone interested in how the Canberra bureaucratic machine's most senior levels engage with our political leaders - and keep doing so after both the politicians and the senior Mandarins have left their official roles. It's also a depressing story of comfort zones and single sources of advice that often turn out to be wrong.The latest effort from the now embarrassing National Anti Corruption Commission will be reassuring to anyone who thinks things are peachy - like, say, a former or current Canberra Mandarin. But not to anyone who cares about Australia's security, public services or future.

Marcus and Michael reflect on their wisdom in modifying the Grumpies bunker to hold thousands of litres of diesel and 8 pallets of tinned tomatoes, as the war escalates in the Middle East. They set out three scenarios for the outcome and only one of them - the least likely (spoiler, it involves rose petals and cheering crowds)- is good. Then it's on to examine the desperate contortions of US allies - notably the UK's Keir Starmer and our own PM Albanese, and ministers Marles and Wong - to avoid thinking or talking about our major ally assassinating foreign governments as a new normal. It turns out assassinating people is okay if they are 'bad guys'. And, luckily, we were kept in the dark until afterwards. Phew.

The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....

The Grumpy Strategists look at the recent 'historic" plan for Australia's Defence real estate (okay, a shameless Government asset sale of historic sites to perhaps produce a one-off cash dribble that will be sucked into the AUKUS sub & Hunter frigate budgetary black holes.....). Metrics show the value of this deceased estate approach to Defence properties: flogging off most of the places Defence actually makes contact with Australians in urban areas may provide enough cash for two "Hegseths" - those $1 billion AUKUS suitcases Richard Marles travels with - or pay for 1/5 of a Hunter frigate. Hmmm. The upside is a joint venture for a tasteful new 112 storey bunker. Then it's a dive into the implications for Australia from the marked strategy shift the US has taken between the Oct 2022 & Jan 2026 National Defense Strategies, & a look at the Pentagon's disgraceful disregard of Mr Trump's recent complete and total obliteration of Iran's nuclear program: by gathering forces to....obliterate Iran's nuclear program. It's so hard to get good help.

What's in a name? The Trumpy Strategists Bunker showcases the direction of Australian policy in 2025, while the Grumpies ponder MAGA tensions from Turning Point USA to Susie Wiles' cry for help in Vanity Fair. On bigger issues, Marcus & Michael look at the responses so far to the murderous Bondi attack, search for highlights in Australian military capability programs and look over the big policy takeaways from 2025. US self harm & a Beijing happy not to interrupt are prominent. Despite impending Christmas feasts and further Aussie cricketing glory, 2025 is ending with disturbing directions.

Marcus & his fellow SES emergency volunteers hunt for the "Biggest Defence Overhaul in 50 years" somewhere deep in the Brindabellas (WARNING: parts of this episode contain disturbing elements of earlier reforms who appear to have been victims of foul play). Good news - those blockers stopping delivery of stuff for Australia's military - the Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Force - won't be able to get away with this for much longer. Details are scarce but the hunt is relentless. Then it's time to chew over awkward facts about declining rates of flying by our Air Force and falling numbers of days at sea from our Navy's shrinking fleet. Far from protecting Australia's sea lanes, our Navy seems mainly designed to protect itself. The Flower Class corvettes of WW2 show an alternative way that works.

Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko speaks with a grumpy strategist about his path from business to diplomacy, & the surreal experience of families - including his - like fighting in the Russian military during WW2 & now fighting against Russian invaders in their homeland. They cover connections between the war & our part of the world - North Korea and China's direct support to Russia & also Russia's efforts to grow its military relationship with Indonesia. The episode sets out the value of a new partnership on military and industrial cooperation between Australia and Ukraine. Ukraine needs support but is also now a source of military technical advantage.

Episode 1 of the Great Debates -on topics in Australia that need discussion but are reduced to shouting matches from inside closed bubbles. Green shirted Marcus is Mr Renewables and black suited Michael is the pro-nuclear Darth Vader of the episode. Listen to hear if a civil chat about radioactive waste, windfarms and Australia's energy mix is possible.

Michael Shoebridge talks with Paddy Gregg, CEO of Austal, about the company's history as a builder of commercial and military vessels for decades now. We discuss its stocked up order book both here & in the US, and the future, including Australia's general purpose frigates. Austal USA is making command modules for US Virginia Class submarines and is the biggest revenue earner for Austal, while at Henderson, Austal is ramping up fast with landing craft orders. Hanwha's bid is covered, with Paddy giving his perspective as the CEO of a publicly-listed company.

In 12 years, Adam Gilmour has grown Gilmour Space to be able to design and build its own space launch rockets, satellite buses to carry users' payloads & now is running his own space launch facility in Queensland. He talks about the business principles that let Gilmour Space thrive & move fast, and why sovereign launch and space capacity matters to Australia's security.