About this episode

Nick Kumleben returns to discuss the geopolitical implications of the Israel-US war with Iran and its effects on the commodities markets and potential financial crises.

Returning today to discuss the latest developments from Israel & US's war with Iran is Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle, the geopolitical risk advisory firm. What are the commodities markets telling us about duration? What are the incentive structures in place? How are traders faring in this period of extraordinary volatility? Is the US Treasury trading and how rumor and innuendo are driving that volatility? What would mines in the strait mean? Would boots on the ground actually lower prices? Why are the equity markets so sanguine? And could this, plus a smoldering private credit fund concern, lead us quickly to the global financial crisis?

People in this episode

Host: Paul Chapman

Guest: Nick Kumleben

Topics covered

• geopolitical risk
• commodities markets
• financial volatility
• US Treasury
• equity markets
• global financial crisis

Keywords

• geopolitical risk
• commodities
• financial crisis
• volatility
• US Treasury
• equity markets
• Iran
• Israel

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Greenmantle

Places: Israel, US, Iran

More episodes of The HC Commodities Podcast

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• Announcements, Events and Q1 Reports · April 15, 2026 · 5 min
• Europe’s Power Trading Outlook with Xavier Veillard · April 14, 2026 · 47 min
• Tungsten with William Parry-Jones · April 7, 2026 · 42 min
• Copper & Gold: Pricing the physical vs the narrative with Grant Sporre (Episode 300!) · March 31, 2026 · 52 min
• The Iran War: the view from CERA Week with Nick Kumleben · March 27, 2026 · 47 min

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