The International Security Podcast

Right-wing populist leaders love soldiers (especially fallen ones) and the trappings of military life. But their love affair with the military rarely endures. Ron Krebs discusses how romanticizing and mythologizing the military solves a political problem for populists: how to mobilize people power without actually granting power to the people.

Nicholas Anderson and Daryl Press argue that the current U.S. approach for operating airpower to defend Taiwan risks catastrophic defeat. They have created a new, unclassified, and transparent model that explores multiple scenarios in a Taiwan conflict. They find that in such a conflict, the United States would likely lose hundreds of aircraft to Chinese strikes on airfields. They also suggest that the U.S. Air Force’s proposed solution to this possibility, the Agile Combat Employment doctrine, would likely fail while raising the risk of escalation. Instead, Anderson and Press’s model indicates that hardened aircraft shelters may offer a way to blunt Chinese attacks.

Episode Summary: Why did Vladimir Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Barry Posen argues that Putin’s decision is consistent with the logic of preventive war. Increasing U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership, which would shift the balance of power against Russia.

Conventional thinking suggests that autocrats need foreign enemies to bolster their regimes’ popularity at home. Russia’s Vladimir Putin is often thought to reap domestic legitimacy from belligerence. But as Adam Lenton and Henry Hale discuss, Putin wins as much popular support when he presents himself as prudent and cooperative rather than as hostile and aggressive. This suggests that Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine was not driven by domestic political necessity. Indeed, autocrats may try to have it both ways, trying to covertly stoke hostilities while overtly appearing to be moderate and cooperative pursuers of stability and prosperity.

Şener Aktürk discusses his recent article, “Not So Innocent: Clerics, Monarchs, and the Ethnoreligious Cleansing of Western Europe.” Ethnic cleansing is often seen as a specifically modern phenomenon. But as Akturk explains, the medieval Catholic Church facilitated the ethnoreligious cleansing of Muslim and Jewish communities across Western Europe. Akturk describes the geopolitical conditions that made this possible and his findings’ implications for twentieth- and twenty-first-century ethnic cleansing in places like Cambodia, Iraq, the Soviet Union, and Syria.

In this episode, we explore when and why states reveal their clandestine military capabilities. Specifically, we discuss the role of the private sector in helping to develop and conceal such capabilities. Under what conditions do states benefit from revealing their clandestine military capabilities? What role does the defense industry play in helping to maintain states’ military secrets? Compared to the Cold War period, is it becoming more or less difficult to safeguard military secrets? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we explore the politics of technology and the North Korean nuclear crisis. In particular, we focus on how lessons from the 1994 Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea can be applied to nonproliferation diplomacy today. Why did the 1994 Agreed Framework fail, and what impact did this failure have on U.S.-North Korea relations? What have we learned from these challenges in proliferation crisis diplomacy? Can lessons from the Agreed Framework be applied to U.S.-Iran relations? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we explore the politics of alliance relationship management and reputational concerns during international crises. In particular, we focus on the United States, Taiwan, and other partnerships in East Asia. What does it mean to have a reputation for being a “good ally”? Do states always want their partners to be “loyal”? What types of statements and behaviors reassure nervous allies? Where is America’s reputation most on the line in East Asia? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we address the current state of civil-military relations in the United States, explore the paradoxes of having an “apolitical” military as envisioned by Samuel Huntington, and contemplate the future of civil-military relations. Are civil-military relations really in crisis in the United States today? If existing norms are not working, what should the norms and practices of civil-military relations be? What role should retired military officers play in government and public life? How can both civilian and military leaders better prepare for their joint work? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine the U.S. electoral calendar’s impact on military strategy during the Iraq War. How did U.S. electoral considerations impact military decisions at the presidential level, such as the 2007 surge and the 2011 withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq? In what ways did these considerations interact with local conditions on the ground and Iraqi domestic politics? Will the current U.S. electoral cycle influence foreign policy decision-making regarding Iraq and the Middle East more broadly? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine how refugee return can upset post-conflict stability and lead to renewed conflict at home. While our conversation touches upon numerous cases of conflict-induced migration, our analysis zeroes in on post-conflict Burundi. How do post-conflict societies respond to refugee return? Under what conditions do tensions between those who stayed and those who left become violent? What can local and international actors do to mitigate the risks of renewed conflict once refugees come home? Listen to find out!

In this episode, we examine when and how domestic politics can influence a state’s nuclear choices and, in particular, when a country’s leaders choose to expand nuclear decision-making to those outside of their inner circle. Our policy discussion focuses on the impact of Iranian and American domestic politics on the past, present, and future of the Iran nuclear deal. Who are the main factions and decision makers driving the two countries’ respective policies? What is the current state of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? Given looming elections in both countries, what does the future hold for the Iran deal? Listen to find out!

International Security author, Michael Mousseau, presents a provocative argument: A powerful liberal global hierarchy is slowly, but systematically, moving the world toward perpetual peace. The conversation is joined by Graham Allison for a spirited debate about the liberal foundations of war and peace. Is the “end of war” possible? What would such a world look like? What does this mean for increasing tension between the United States and a rising China? Listen to find out!