The Mike Hosking Breakfast

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. The brain gain: 8/10 Uplifting story of the week. The return of New Zealanders from Australia and Australian's from Australia. The tide is turning, the mood has shifted, the numbers don’t lie. In the great New Zealand vs Australia-off, NZ is back baby. Conservation land: 2/10 Sooooo depressing. The lies, the BS, the spin, the bollocks and the lack of maturity. It's been a shocking, misguided, and deliberately so, debate. More adults please. The Greens and their math: 1/10 Being useless at numbers should disqualify you automatically from running anything. Keir Starmer: 4/10 "Mediocrity in a suit" they said. He didn’t have a plan and was toast in two years. British politics is amazing. The Hurricanes: 8/10 An excellent example of sport at its finest. LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEWSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been a bad week for maturity. Trump suggesting Meloni begged for a photo op is all that is petty and pathetic about a bloke who has bigger fish to fry. Simeon Brown treating his business partners with verbal contempt by calling them children is not the crime of the century, but it's also not good conduct from people running countries. But it all pales against the astonishing nonsense peddled, mainly on social media, by those opposed to these so-called conservation changes. Now, this is not about whether those changes are half decent or not. Personally, having read it all, it's hardly the end of the world and a lot of it may well lead to better, smarter outcomes for the estate. But I came to that conclusion by informing myself, which will be of great upset to the peddlers of the lies because it became clear fairly quickly they were not interested in the truth. For them it was more about the alarmism that a misleading headline can produce. Social media gets blamed for a lot and it's true that there is tsunamis of nonsense on it. But it, at all times, remains our responsibility to sift through and work out what's real and what isn't. But sadly that is theory, not reality, and that's why the conservation scrap got so out of control. Because people too often on their feed see a headline and swallow it hook, line and tramping path. There will always be, especially around contentious issues, some fizz or hyperbole and a little colourful theorising. But this week has been a joke. Between the Greens and Forest & Bird and their other worm-loving mates, they're saying the Coromandel is for sale, billionaires are buying Mt Cook and you'll be charged to enter the South Island. All I ask is we try harder. Defend your corner, argue your case, point out the pitfalls, problems and failings. But don’t make it up. Don’t put it out there in a way you know will be misinterpreted and run with. Those behind this week's campaign of bollocks know people are busy and know they have limited time to consume detail so prey on that for political advantage. It's our responsibility to be properly informed but it is those who run the place's job to do it on a level playing field. Hysteria and lies and deliberate manipulation should be crimes. But given they are not, all we can hope for is a better version of adults.   LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

National is pledging low-interest loans to help Kiwis install solar panels at home.  The policy would create a 'home energy' fund, which would be backed by a $7million investment. Homeowners would repay the loans through their rates over 10 years.  The policy would also scrap consent requirements for most rooftop installations.  Director of Lightforce Solar John Harman told Mike Hosking that this could be the start of an 'electric revolution'.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government has backed down on it's plan to enable the sale of conservation land.  They've decided to remove the 'Disposal and Exchange' provisions from the bill.  Conservation Minister Tama Potaka told Mike Hosking that, 'There's no intention to sell off huge swathes of the conservation estate, but clearly that intention didn't materialise in the words. That's on me.'  He said the Government is working with Forest and Bird, NGOs and Iwis to make sure the intentions and details of the bill suit all parties.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs the economic fallout from the Iran conflict may be shorter-lived than feared. Westpac economists are forecasting brighter outlooks for inflation, interest rates and the wider economy, as fuel price concerns ease. They expect GDP growth to reach two percent this year, while inflation is forecast to peak this quarter before declining. Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking the oil market has been more resilient than many expected. He says headline inflation globally isn't rising as quickly, and the urgency central banks previously felt to raise rates is no longer there. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The only winner out of political polls is the media for the simple reason it gives them a chance to pontificate and clickbait.  "Luxon fronts media after bad poll”.  Why is that the headline as opposed to "Hipkins answers questions after poll collapse"?  Let's do some simple math: there are about 53% of voters who are broadly centre-right. Pollsters will tell you this to be true.  If you accept NZ First are doing well, their highest number is 15% so take that off your 53%, you are down to 38%.  Take a chunk off for ACT, they seem to be about 7-9% so let's call it 8%, and you're at 30%, which is where National roughly are.  The numbers make perfect sense. It's not a "bad poll", it's simple math.  If there is one “real” story in any given poll, especially this week's one, it's that the main parties of Labour and National are sharing a shrinking slice of the vote, which if you like MMP is what is supposed to happen.  The Greens, ACT and NZ First have established themselves as a permanent presence. We should be celebrating this, not because of specific policy, but because we voted for a system that spreads the vote and provides greater representation.  That’s what we wanted so that is good news.  Also, you've got Opportunity at 4%. I don’t think they'll get there, but if I'm wrong and they get the 5% and they go on to become the newest member of the permanent club, that is further support that will bleed away from the major players.  The media coverage discusses none of this because I suspect they haven't thought about it, or indeed they may not even understand it.  A lot of Europe with proportional systems have Governments led by parties who won the election with a vote in the 20's, if not low 20's. That is proportional representation.  Here's the next big question: it's been ruled out by the Greens, but not Labour, so why not cut the head of Opportunity an electorate deal in Mt Albert?  Mt Albert is tight. Helen White won it by a whisker. Opportunity could split the vote and hand the place to the Nats, or Labour could David Seymour it and Epsom her into Parliament and thus create a brand-new coalition partner.  That’s the really interesting part of the polls and machinations. But no, the media just want "Luxon fronts media after bad poll".  They are stuck in the 90's. This is a way more gripping story than they are telling. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand Rugby's adamant there was no choice but to reject rescue plans for the financially-strapped Moana Pasifika.  Moana is officially out of the 2027 Super Rugby season – although there is hope they will be back in the future.  The franchise fizzles out, owing millions on a loan from the Government through Sport New Zealand.  Chief financial officer Chris Kinraid told Mike Hosking they made all efforts to save Moana Pasifika, but in the end they had a pretty strict criteria.  He says they were looking for proposals that had the cash to support the franchise and a sustainable and viable business plan, and both those criteria weren’t met.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christchurch’s new stadium has put its stamp on the city, pumping $21 million into the economy in just 60 days.   One NZ Stadium was forecast to generate $50 million in a year.  The project was also completed six weeks early and $26 million under budget.  Venues Otautahi chief executive Caroline Harvie-Teare told Mike Hosking they’re absolutely flying – it’s well beyond what they had forecast.  She says things will flatten off a bit now that Super Rugby Pacific is over, but they have a really strong event pipeline, so those numbers are going to continue.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The use of air conditioning is becoming a concern in parts of Europe as a searing heatwave continues to grip much of the continent.  Italy, the UK, and Spain are among nations sweltering in extreme heat, with temperatures soaring past 40 degrees in some regions.  Severe red heat alerts have been issued for most of France and parts of Italy as temperatures break historical records.  EU correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking many people aren't used to using air conditioning for economic reasons.  She says there have also seen some energy blackouts in the Milan, Naples, and Turin over the last few days, due to a spike in air conditioning use.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Heart of the City board member says the organisation's lost its focus.  Six of the Auckland city-centre business association's seven voting members have quit after months of turmoil which saw its chief executive temporarily stood down.   Its board says the organisation isn't compliant with its own constitution and recommends Auckland Council withhold funding and consider an audit.  Murray Crane told Mike Hosking Heart of the City's no longer effective.  He believes it's become very bureaucratic and members are dealing with a lot of things they shouldn't have to.  Crane says it comes at a stressful time for Auckland businesses, and if times were good and businesses were humming, the organisation would work really well.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Let me ask you this: if fast-track is the answer, then why do we still have the Port of Tauranga problems?  Surely I don’t need to go through the fine detail of what is one of this country's most embarrassing modern travesties.  It's a story in which a successful business wants to expand so they can be more successful, and yet can't because the court process is never-ending.  The latest chapter of course involves local Māori wanting compensation.  It's not like this business is in nuclear waste or mine tailings. It's simply part of our main way of making money – exports. Selling things to the world.  If ever there was a case for an overarching “let's stop the BS and time wasting" law, the Port of Tauranga saga is it.  It's hard to know who is at fault more; those who started the scrap, i.e. local Māori, or those who allow it to drag, i.e. the judicial process.  But can you not mount a case that if a business cannot be allowed to be a business because they are hindered by argument and the process that allows the argument, at some point a line has to be drawn and an overarching authority (presumably the Government) comes in to settle the matter once and for all?  Arbitration is a possibility, including compulsory arbitration. I have for years argued for it in union disputes, especially the ones like teachers and nurses who are constantly scrapping with stop-work meetings and protests and days off.  State your case, claim/counter claim, if you're stuck then enter the referee and the call is made.  If fast-track was the solution it's patently evident in this case it isn't working and the port are in the fast-track process, having failed in the non-fast-track process. So all the processes and they are still no further ahead.  In my system the arbitrator would ask is this legal? Is this societally acceptable and is it beneficial for the country? I would ask that at 8.30am when the hearing starts and I reckon we'd be done by morning tea.  If an exporting nation can't expand to export more, how broken and backward are we? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A think-tank is calling on ACC to make rehabilitation its priority ahead of paperwork.   The Accident Compensation Corporation's claims pool stopped growing in April after once increasing 15% annually.   A New Zealand Initiative report says there's evidence to suggest it could be achieving this by cutting back on rehabilitation outcomes.   Executive Director Oliver Hartwich told Mike Hosking that currently a person is considered rehabilitated if ACC hasn’t paid them for five weeks – but this isn’t a real measure.  He says the real measure of success isn’t whether they get them off the books, it’s whether they restore them to health and bring them back into the labour market.  The problem, Hartwich says, is that some people don’t return to work at all, so we have to make sure they don’t linger on ACC, and that it doesn’t become another form of welfare.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Questions have been raised over how a single fibre cable, chewed through by rats, was enough to shut down an entire Christchurch secondary school.  Hillmorton High School has reopened today after asking students to learn from home for two days because of the damage.  The school lost WiFi, phone lines, CCTV, and access to the student management system.  Secondary Principals' Council Chair Steve McCracken told Mike Hosking while the circumstances are bizarre, schools can't operate safely when critical systems go down.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.