The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Listen to the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday 19 October. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christopher Luxon isn't worried that removing the right to silence in exceptional cases would clash with the Bill of Rights Act. Under the policy, people who witness a child's murder could face up to 10 years in prison, if they don't reveal to Police who was responsible.  Luxon told Mike Hosking he expects law groups will warn it's a bill of rights issue. He says the same thing happened with the gang patch ban and other things like alcohol testing. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A criminal defence lawyer warns a new National policy is tackling a very vexed area of law.  The party is campaigning on removing the right to remain silent when a child under 12 is killed.   The party suggests this is an exceptional circumstance that justifies breaching the Bill of Rights Act.  Barrister John Munro told Mike Hosking there is likely a low number of cases where someone hasn't been convicted, because someone maintained their right to silence.  He says there's probably the same number of cases where people with low IQ or under duress are being told to say things, when they don't want to.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At least one person has been killed in an attack on oil facilities and data centres in Russia's St Petersburg.  It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Moscow has targeted his country's energy sector 76 times since Donald Trump declared an energy ceasefire last week.  Russia's defence ministry says it's shot down more than a thousand Ukrainian drones over the weekend.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking Zelenskyy has defied the US leader with the biggest attack yet on Russia's second biggest city.  He says Trump claims both sides had agreed to a ceasefire, but Russia had also been increasing strikes on Ukrainian power networks.  LISTEN ABOVE   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From the White House, Katie Zacharia was a disaster.  This perhaps wouldn’t matter so much if the President wasn’t about to get caned in the midterms.  It might not matter so much if the job wasn’t so important. It might not matter so much if all the others had been as disastrous as Ms Zacharia.  "Zachbot" is what one outlet called her.  Outside of letting the world know the Greek grifter had been sacked, she said nothing, knew nothing and left.  It's hard, and not hard, to see why she got the job. It's not hard because she is female and you could describe her as "pretty".  That of course under normal circumstances is not something we should be dabbling in, but these aren't normal circumstances and the Trump job machine produces an overtly disproportionate number of quite pretty woman in public rolls.  But it is hard, if you discount the looks bit, to see why a Scott Jennings didn’t get it.  Jennings is a CNN regular for the Republican side of the equation. He has worked with both Bushes and with Mitt Romney. He is experienced, he is bright and he is very articulate. If they were skills you were after and you had a “skill off" between Jennings and Zacharia, Scott is your man.  If you insist on looks, Katie Miller and Monica Crowley were in the running and Alina Habba, his lawyer, would have been if she hadn't bailed early.  The trouble with newbies is they're compared to the others, and the others included everyone from Kayleigh McEnany to Karoline Leavitt, to Sean Spicer.  Spicer was useless. Anthony Scaramucci, who technically wasn’t the Press Secretary but the Communications Director, was good but short lived because he got a case of the guilts. Read his book, it's good.  Sarah Huckabee Sanders was so good she went on to be a governor, although the lineage might have helped.  But the point is, as much as you might want to make fun of this job and the Trump White House, the truth is Leavitt was amazing. Forget politics – in her job, in selling the message and knowing her stuff, she was world class, if not in a class of her own. McEnany wasn’t far behind.  Trump has picked some brilliant operators. Unless Zacharia was having a meltdown, or Jennings was offered the job but turned it down, Trump will be losing the midterms and a press secretary by the end of November. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is it too far-fetched to ask two things:  1) Whether the campaign turned dramatically against Labour yesterday.  2) If within a 24-hour period, whatever chance they might have thought they had is now blown to smithereens.  The Greens want to fund gangs. They are unapologetic about hanging with gangs and they fail to accept the simple premise that this puts them so far outside what you would loosely call "mainstream New Zealand". It will most likely see whatever voters there are wavering between National and Labour scarper back to National.  Then if that wasn’t bad enough, David Seymour of all people decides he can live with the Opportunity Party better than he can live with being in Opposition.  Is it too big a stretch to ask whether this is not some unbelievable self-implosion by the Greens? Almost a self-sabotage attempt? Or is it more likely a group carried away by their perceived polling success that they can say and do anything they like and to hell with the consequences?  It's certainly an insight into the dynamics of the Greens. As normal as Chlöe Swarbrick might like to paint them, she looked lost, bewildered, and unable to respond in a way a normal leader would i.e. pull some of the madness into line, reject some allegations, cancel some perceptions, and stamp down some rampant madness.  She looked bereft of leadership skill.  Can we ask whether Seymour is the key to the Luxon turnaround re: Opportunity? If David can, maybe Luxon can too.  Put the two events of a singular day together and the election is over.  The math was always easier for the incumbents anyway; National on 30%, NZ First and ACT on 10% each, that's 50%. Add Opportunity and it's over an hour after the polls close.  Obviously, there are three weeks left. But in a spectacularly boring campaign, where the debates sent you to sleep and Groundhog Day had set in early, out of nowhere came an event that might well have turned the whole thing on its head.  Gangs in New Zealand are abhorrent. We hate them and we hate what they do. The Greens and the Māori Party want to hang with them, give them our money and rub them in your face.  It's Hipkins' worst nightmare.  His two partners, who are already fringe, are going full rogue on a subject that defies left and right. No one backs gangs. There isn't a single vote in them.  October 15th might just be the day Labour kissed it all goodbye. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The week has come to an end, which means it's time for Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson to help Mike Hosking Wrap the Week that Was.   They discussed cancelled credit cards and wayward subscription services, and dug into the third week of the election campaign. Is the country over it already?  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Standards over silverware is the messaging from All Blacks camp in Sydney this weekend.  Fullback Will Jordan says Tana Umaga has led the conversation of not letting their expectations slip despite already sealing away the Bledisloe Cup.  Jordan says they're heading into their second test against the Wallabies with the same determination.  He told Mike Hosking there isn't a cup on the line, but the All Blacks legacy always is, so every test is an important one.  "We'll certainly treat it with full respect on Saturday."  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An independent grocery chain says many of the polices they're seeing this election won't help third players.  Paddock to Pantry —which currently has two South Auckland stores and a website— has announced plans to open 20 more stores over the next five years.  Business Manager John Kennerley says plans to break up the supermarket duopoly won't actually help independents expand.  Instead, he told Mike Hosking, having access to low-interest loans and cheaper capital would allow them to grow faster.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a cautiously optimistic outlook on the construction sector.  The EBOSS 2026 Builder and Architect Sentiment report —based on a survey of thousands of builders, architects, and designers— shows the sector pipeline is slowly filling.   Data finds there's around seven months forward work, with project starts jumping from -21 to +8.  Certified Builders Chief Executive Malcolm Fleming told Mike Hosking it paints a picture of the economy turning.  He says builders on the ground are seeing a slight uptick in their positivity and in their inquiries in the future.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're still losing people to Australia, but not as badly as we were.   Stats out yesterday tell the story.   If I could pick a country right now, I would go with New Zealand and by some margin. I haven't always said that.   Of course, most people go because they are going to go. If you want reasons to stay or go, and justify it to yourself, you can always find them.   The same way, overall, the number of people moving to or from Australia will always be in their favour because they're a bigger country. They have more options. That's not about quality, it's about size.  At the margins though, the point is it's slowing because the tide has turned. If you accept most western nations are right now in a quagmire of sorts, we, little old New Zealand, are doing quite well thank you.   We are safe and isolated, we are robust and resilient, we are increasingly in favour by expats looking to return.   As part of the overall migration numbers released yesterday, we still don’t have enough people. Our net gain is meagre, bordering on worrying.   As too many countries, including Australia, scrap over migration numbers and being flooded with new arrivals we, in a way, have the opposite problem.   A country needs to grow to offset the lack of births. A lot of countries, including ours, face the same issue.  The trick is getting the right people and the right numbers. We seem to have settled on a pretty solid skills formula for visas, but the numbers are not where they need to be. Our net gain at the moment is 20,000, at the peak it was 130,000. If 130,000 was too much, 20,000 ain't enough.  Employers still can't get talent, and the unemployment rate and talent are two different things.   But this country is growing: 2.6 %. Look up the IMF forecasts out this week and see who else is growing at that rate or more – there aren't many and those who are, are either massive, i.e. India, or chip related, i.e. Taiwan. Australia certainly isn't.  When you line up inflation, work, tax, debt, angst, immigration, and housing, Australia is not a patch on us. The cycle has turned, the numbers have turned, we are right where we want to be: on the up. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 15th of October, we've put all the "best bits" of the leader's debate into a package for you, plus we have good news re: police recruitment.  Labour leader Chris Hipkins discusses the debate, how his candidates are going in the Māori electorates, and the Greens and Te Pāti Māori's meeting with the Mongrel Mob.  Kiwi musician Greg Johnson sings us a song ahead of his NZ tour.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government says the legal test wasn't passed for safeguards for the aluminium sector amidst a flood of cheaper imports from China.  Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Cameron Brewer declined a request for the measures to protect them.  The sector says thousands of jobs are at risk, warning local production has slowed down 40%.  Brewer told Mike Hosking there's been MBIE investigators looking into this.  He says they spent 85 days pulling this report together, but found it didn't meet the threshold for him to sign it off.  The Minister also says it's not imported products alone causing the heartache.  Brewer told Hosking there's a range of factors including lower construction activity, rising production costs, and waning business and consumer confidence.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.