The Navarro Express

March’s PPI report shows inflation driven largely by energy—not a broad-based surge. While headline prices rose, core and service-side pressures remain contained, signaling underlying inflation is still cooling despite volatile commodity shocks.

A blowout March jobs report adds 178,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations and reinforcing the strength of the American labor market. Private-sector hiring led the gains, while key industries like construction and logistics showed renewed momentum. Despite recession warnings, the data points to a resilient economy shifting toward more productive growth.

Powell holds rates steady—and hits Main Street. As inflation cools and oil shocks weaken demand, this episode breaks down why the Fed is tightening into a slowdown, raising borrowing costs for families, builders, and manufacturers while misreading the real economy.

February’s jobs report headline shows a payroll decline, but the deeper story is a stabilizing labor market. Temporary disruptions skewed the numbers while unemployment remains low, wages are rising, and productivity—especially in manufacturing—is strengthening. The real Trumpnomics story isn’t job counts, but the combination of rising pay, stronger output, and steady employment.

Consumer confidence just beat expectations, with forward-looking sentiment turning higher — a key early signal for spending and growth. While households still expect elevated inflation, actual price pressures are running lower, suggesting perceptions are lagging reality. As inflation fears fade and expectations realign with data, confidence has room to rise further — supporting stronger consumption and sustained economic momentum.

ICE is the enforcement arm of federal immigration law—executing removal orders, detaining individuals with final deportation rulings, and targeting serious offenders. This episode breaks down what happens when ICE funding is cut: fewer detention beds, fewer removals, and growing backlogs. It’s not rhetoric—it’s arithmetic. Public safety policy is about incentives, enforcement, and consequences. Law without enforcement isn’t compassion, it’s chaos.

January CPI shows continued disinflation: prices up just 0.17% for the month, core steady, and the 10-year yield falling even after a strong jobs report. Energy cooled, core goods were flat, shelter is moderating, and real wages are rising. This is supply-driven disinflation with solid growth—not recession.

Congress is moving to undo one of President Trump’s most important trade enforcement wins: closing the de minimis tariff loophole. After Trump shut down a system that let foreign sellers evade billions in tariffs while flooding the U.S. with unchecked packages—including counterfeits and fentanyl—a new bill seeks to quietly bring it back under a friendly-sounding name.

For decades, foreign dumping — China first and worst — hollowed out America’s steel industry, shutting mills, wiping out jobs, and leaving the U.S. dependent on overseas steel for everything from bridges to warships. President Trump’s 2018 tariffs stopped the collapse, but Biden weakened them with loopholes and exemptions. In 2025, Trump doubled steel tariffs to 50%, and the results were immediate: U.S. steel production rose, America surpassed Japan for the first time since 1999, and investment is flooding back into modern American mills. Steel is back — because tariffs work.

America’s steak prices aren’t being driven by “inflation” — they’re being driven by cartel power at the slaughterhouse. With just four firms controlling most U.S. beef processing, and two major players effectively controlled from Brazil, American ranchers get paid less, families pay more, and profits flow offshore. As Brazil exports and China buys, foreign demand can end up setting the price of dinner in the United States. That’s why President Trump has directed the DOJ to launch a full antitrust investigation to break the choke point and restore real competition in America’s food supply.

Jay Powell says a DOJ investigation threatens Fed independence—but this isn’t about interest rates. It’s about whether Powell misled Congress under oath over the Fed’s lavish multibillion-dollar headquarters renovation. President Trump says Powell is either incompetent or crooked. Either way, this isn’t an independence crisis—it’s a credibility crisis. Independence doesn’t mean immunity. Accountability is the law.

The December CPI report delivers three clear conclusions: tariffs aren’t driving inflation, inflation is now running near the Fed’s target, and the data support a rate cut at the Fed’s January 28 meeting. Headline inflation came in as expected, core inflation was even cooler, and goods prices stayed flat—showing no tariff pass-through. Bottom line: inflation is stable, the justification for high rates is gone, and it’s time for the Fed to cut.