The New Bazaar

Martha Gimbel, executive director of The Budget Lab at Yale, returns to the New Bazaar to chat with Cardiff about all things debt and deficits.Martha argues that the fiscal choices of the past decade have already led to higher costs on mortgages, car loans, and small-business debt. She and Cardiff discuss what might happen next given the frightening projections for future borrowing.They discuss:Is “we can’t leave this problem to our kids and grandkids” a misleading way to think about the national debt?Why is it so hard to know exactly what level of debt could lead to a fiscal crisis? Why such precision is often the enemy of understandingDoes she take flak from the left for arguing that the crowding out effect is a real thing?Immigration and the deficitWhich policies could actually bend the deficit curve down?A DOGE post-mortemAnd lots more.Related links:Lower Immigration Means Lower Productivity Growth by Abhi Gupta2026 chart book examines spending, taxes, and deficits by Jessica RiedlMartha’s The Atlantic piece on the national debtThe National Debt’s Unforgiving Math by Jared BernsteinThe Budget Lab at Yale websiteThe Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 | Congressional Budget OfficeWhere Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go? | Center on Budget and Policy PrioritiesCRS report on Foreign Holdings of Federal Debt

The ROAD (Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream) to Housing Act is a bipartisan bill now making its way through Congress. And as today’s guest, Alex Armlovich, and his colleagues at the Niskanen Center argue, it is “the first comprehensive bid to tackle the roots of America’s‬ affordability crisis in a generation—it correctly‬‭ identifies, and takes initial steps to attack,‬ the interlocking barriers to housing abundance at every level.” Not only that, but the bill is “miraculously‬ bipartisan, and its negotiation and development exhibited a stunning, almost‬ anachronistic return to the old Senate tradition of depolarized collegiality and bipartisan‬ problem-solving.‬”But before discussing the contents of the bill, Alex and Cardiff first talk about recent shifts in housing-policy alliances, the roots of the housing affordability and availability problem, housing experiments that have worked (and haven’t), the roll of the “Abundance” movement, and the genuine collective-action problems that housing advocates too often ignore. Then they break down the ROAD to Housing Act into three main buckets, going into detail on each: 1) Regulatory reform, 2) carrots and sticks, and 3) financing and funding. They also comment on what the bill would fix and what it wouldn’t, and its chances of becoming law. Finally, Alex and Cardiff reflect on housing, construction, and the nature of physical change in New York City, where both have spent the bulk of their adult lives. Related links: Alex Armlovich about page (at Niskanen Center)Niskanen Center home page (where the upcoming ROAD to Housing Act analysis from Alex and his colleagues will appear)

Will artificial intelligence help you do your job, or will it just straight-up do your job and leave you unemployable? Or will the future bring something else entirely — either between those two extremes or a world that we simply cannot imagine yet? And are we already starting to see signs of that future emerging? On this episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff is joined by economist Nathan Goldschlag, Research Director at the Economic Innovation Group. Until recently, Nathan was Principal Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies, where among other things he led research on the impact of technology, including AI, on the economy. Any worthwhile list of the world’s best economists on the subject of AI and work would have to include him. Cardiff and Nathan go through Nathan’s own research* and also filter out the megaton of nonsense on the topic and discuss some of the work done by others — research, essays, meanderings — that they think is actually worth sharing with listeners. They discuss, among other things: How many businesses are now using AI to produce goods and servicesHow have things changed since the launch and popularization of large language modelsEconomic growth consequences of AIWhether “learn to code” is still good advice The skills that still matter To steer or not to steer the AI future* Nathan’s research on AI was done in collaboration with a large team of researchers at the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau including Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, David Beede, John Haltiwanger, Zach Kroff, Nikolas Zolas, Gary Anderson, and Eric Childress, along with program area partners including Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Cathy Buffington, and Keith Savage, as well as academic partners including Daron Acemoglu, Erik Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, and Pascual Restrepo. Related links:The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey.The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI | NBERAnswering the Call of AutomationAI-2027.comTyler Cowen - the #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humansDriverless trucks are coming and unions aren’t happy about itGenerative AI at Work

Chad Bown is not just among the world’s most respected trade economists. He is also perhaps the single most careful tracker of real-time trade activity — which obviously makes him the best possible guest to explain the consequences of US President Donald Trump’s decision on April 2nd to impose new tariffs on China and many other countries in addition to further escalating the trade war with China just a week later while changing course (though not entirely) against the rest of the world.Among the topics they chatted about: The scale of the potential fallout Where the tariffs stand now — including earlier tariffs already imposedThe ongoing threat to the American auto industry What it all means for the global liberal trading order The worst-case and best-case scenarios …and more! Related links: Chad Bown home pageTrade Talks, Chad’s podcast Chad’s (updated in real time) interview with Kai RyssdalThe trade war timeline

On today’s episode, Cardiff chats with his EIG colleagues Adam Ozimek, chief economist, and Connor O’Brien, research analyst, about the one policy that achieves all three of the following goals simultaneously: It massively boosts the rate of economic growth through its effects on entrepreneurship, innovation, and the creation of entire new industries.It reduces inequality.Not only does it cost the taxpayers nothing, it actually saves them huge sums of money. That policy is the expansion of high-skilled immigration, a subject that became a source of contentious debate within the American right not long after the 2024 election. As it happens, Adam and Connor are the co-authors (with John Lettieri) of a big new report, Exceptional by Design, which explains how to design a high-skilled immigration that will maximize its benefits for American workers, businesses, and communities. In this chat, the three discuss: How bad thinking has led to bad policy The surprisingly nuanced economics of high-skilled immigrationThree myths about high-skilled immigrationThe flaws in the current system A new policy vision to change itThe three close with a discussion of why high-skilled immigration carries so much promise for the United States in particular — and the enormous, self-inflicted damage of failing to capitalize on it. RELATED LINKExceptional by Design, by Adam Ozimek, Connor O’Brien, and John Lettieri 

How close is the 2024 presidential election? Here is how the New York Times framed it recently: “Never in modern presidential campaigns have so many states been so tight this close to Election Day. Polling averages show that all seven battleground states are within the margin of error, meaning the difference between a half-point up and a half-point down — essentially a rounding error — could win or lose the White House.” A recent Times-Sienna poll has the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris deadlocked at 48 to 48. Other polls are similarly close — which does not mean they are all telling the same story. Today’s guest, Kristen Soltis Anderson, writes that although “several of them show a dead heat, beneath the surface, they diverge in how they arrive at that result”. What stories can we glean from each poll? What theories of this election can we derive from those stories? Are the polls even right? And why, despite verbal gaffes and incendiary rallies and international conflict and general campaign turmoil, have the polling averages remained so steady in recent months? Kristen is a founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm, and contributing Opinion writer to the New York Times, where she often writes about what is knowable and not knowable based on the polls. We talk about all these themes, including a theory of the election that Kristen came upon while watching football in Phoenix on a Sunday.Finally, we discuss a detailed survey of American workers that Echelon Insights, Kristen’s firm, put into the field for the Economic Innovation Group — and its most surprising findings. All this and more on today’s episode!RELATED LINKS: Opinion | The Polls Show a Dead Heat, but They Don’t All Tell the Same StoryOpinion | Two Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay CalmOpinion | This Year’s October Surprise May Be That There Isn’t OneOpinion | Why the Election Is Coming Down to Defining Kamala Harris - The New York TimesOpinion | I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It.The American Worker Project Survey: Key Findings DeckAmerican workers and the 2024 electionKristen’s website

"The introverts have taken over the US economy."That's the provocative title of a recent Bloomberg column from economist Allison Schrager. As she looked into the data on how Americans have been spending their time since the pandemic, she noticed that they are spending less time socializing with their friends on weekends and more time in front of screens. Even when they do go out, it's increasingly for an early dinner. That's all in addition to the bigger share of Americans who now work remotely, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic and is unlikely to ever fully reverse.Who are the winners and losers from these trends? And what's going on?Obvious explanations include pandemic experimentation, smartphones, better entertainment and telecommunications technologies. But Allison also likes to see these trends through the prism of risk. She tells Cardiff that the "risk-free rate" that Americans can earn from indoor, introverted activity has climbed. With so much choice over the movies, music, and books you can consume in your home, not to mention access to social media and swipe-able dating apps, you are guaranteed to have at least a pretty good time by staying in. Going out means making an "investment" with possibly more upside (meet the love of your life, see a memorable live performance, attend an epic party) but also a vastly more uncertain payoff.Allison and Cardiff discuss these ideas and whether the economy's new introvert-friendliness is likely to stay. They also talk about other trends that could soon favor extroverts, the risks of AI and automation in the labor market, and the skills and traits that will matter for the jobs of the future.Related links:The Introverts Have Taken Over the US Economy (Bloomberg column)Known Unknowns (Allison's newsletter)An Economist Walks Into a Brothel (Allison's book about risk)

Who is the Magic Johnson of economics? Who was the Adam Smith of basketball?On this fun and oddball episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff speaks with Tyler Cowen, economist and author of GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? Inspired by the sportswriter Bill Simmons, Tyler wrote his book from the standpoint of a fan—having fun, taking sides, admitting biases, unapologetically trying to entertain the reader instead of presenting sober (boring) analysis. Cardiff and Tyler—both huge basketball fans—first discuss Tyler's ranking of the great economists and his lament for what economics used to be. Tyler also gives his reasons for releasing the book as a ChatGPT trained on its text, the first such book of its kind.Then begins the fun. They take turns finding analogs for the great economists from the history of the NBA. And they do the same in reverse for basketball's own GOATs. Which economist changed the nature of the field similar to the way Steph Curry set off the three-point revolution? Is there an economist whose comprehensive genius rivaled the ability of LeBron James to engineer exactly the outcome he wants on the court? What basketball player matched the charisma, brilliance, and even investment success of Keynes? And why does Cardiff argue that Tyler himself is the Charles Barkley of economists despite their differences in personality, size, and other obvious dimensions? All throughout the chat, Tyler and Cardiff are exploring the common traits that define greatness in both hoops, the social sciences, and perhaps other domains. A treat for fans of either economics or hoops, or who simply enjoy the virtues of fandom itself. Related links: GOATMarginal RevolutionThe Book of BasketballThe Kobe Question