The Politics Guys

Mike, Justin, and Kirby open this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode with the fight over DHS funding, where a bipartisan deal appears to keep most of the department funded while leaving ICE and Border Patrol outside the agreement for now. Mike argues that Democrats didn’t get the statutory limits on raids, masks, and body cameras they wanted, but may still have forced some moderation in enforcement tactics after Minneapolis. Justin sees the deal as a likely temporary fix and argues that the bad optics of aggressive enforcement gave Democrats more room to hold out. Kirby thinks the shutdown exposed poor strategic thinking on both sides, with Republicans taking an issue where they had an advantage and damaging themselves through overreach. Next, the guys turn to the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey over his Instagram post showing seashells spelling out “8647.” Mike argues that the indictment is legally thin because true-threat doctrine requires evidence that Comey intended, or at least recklessly disregarded, that the message would be understood as a threat. Kirby sees the case as unserious on the merits but serious as a signal that the Trump DOJ is using process itself as punishment. Justin agrees that the case is unlikely to lead to conviction and argues that Republicans are trying to redefine ordinary political language while ignoring far more aggressive rhetoric from Trump and his allies. After that, the discussion broadens to whether Trump’s choices are weakening the MAGA coalition and damaging the Republican brand heading into the midterms and beyond. Mike points to Trump’s poor approval numbers, economic dissatisfaction, the Iran war, and the failure of some GOP structural advantages to materialize as signs that Republicans may be heading into serious trouble. Kirby argues that Trump still owns the party, but a major midterm loss could open the fight between MAGA and post-MAGA Republicans over the party’s future. Justin thinks Trump’s biggest problem is his habit of promising transformation and then delivering something closer to continuity, especially on the economy, while also noting that post-Trump Republican policy may not change as much as Trump’s critics hope. Listen to Kirby’s Inside Political Science podcast here. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast Curious about what sort of POTUS you’d be? Find out in the Fantasy President presidential simulator. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode, Mike and Michael discuss the first New Rule of Politics (which is also an old rule of politics): follow the money. Mike contends that money is the most visible and measurable driver of political incentives, arguing that while it rarely buys votes outright, it is essential for viability and influence. Mike emphasizes how campaign finance evolved into a system where legal, structural incentives prioritize access and donor influence over outright corruption, while Michael highlights how massive spending, small-donor dynamics, and technological targeting reinforce polarization and keep the system escalating. The guys close with the practical implications: money signals who is viable, shapes which issues get attention, and determines who gets access to policymakers. Mike argues that donors—especially large ones—buy influence rather than outcomes, while Michael underscores that even well-intentioned politicians are constrained by these incentives, leaving ordinary citizens with limited direct influence. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken unlock Jay’s the Federalist Papers' No 2 - 5. In this episode, the pair examine how Jay envisioned a unified nation's path to peace, strength, and global influence. Topics include Jay’s Hobbesian vision and perspective of a war where decentralized American states invites chaos, while a united America deters foreign aggressors from Europe. The hosts also overview Jay’s views on the need for a singular national identity and how he saw a powerful national government as being more likely to obey international law. Join Trey and Ken as they explore the details of why Jay was in favor of a strong, centralized leadership to secure America’s future internationally. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this preview of the midweek supporters' exclusive show, Mike and Michael introduce The New Rules of Politics, a new series aimed at explaining modern American politics through incentives, institutions, and systemic dynamics rather than personalities. Mike argues that many traditional ways of interpreting politics no longer work because the broader environment—especially technology, media, and political rules—has changed faster than the institutions governing politics can adapt. The conversation explores how structural factors such as low-turnout primaries, the nationalization of politics, changes in media business models, and the growing influence of money in campaigns shape who succeeds in politics and how they behave once in office. They also discuss declining public trust in institutions, the possibility that figures like Donald Trump are products of modern political incentives rather than unique anomalies, and the difficulty of meaningful constitutional or institutional reform in an era of deep polarization. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Trey open this supporters' exclusive midweek episode with President Trump’s Defense Production Act order boosting domestic glyphosate production amid lawsuits and MAHA backlash, with Mike arguing that the weight of scientific evidence does not support typical-use carcinogen claims while warning against reflexive “chemicals are toxins” thinking, and Trey emphasizing the real policy tension between potential health risks and the massive food price shocks that would follow an abrupt ban, especially given agricultural and national security dependencies. Next, they examine the whistleblower complaint involving DNI Tulsi Gabbard and the White House’s executive privilege claim, with Trey skeptical of shielding information already deemed non-credible by inspectors general and questioning why even the Gang of Eight cannot review it, and Mike arguing that the privilege rationale is strained and reflects a broader pattern of prioritizing loyalty over institutional competence in key national security roles. After that, the guys dig into the Supreme Court’s USPS immunity ruling, with Mike contending that the majority stretched ordinary meanings of “loss” and “miscarriage” to create what amounts to a blanket shield against intentional non-delivery claims, and Trey arguing the decision ignores statutory context and undermines accountability—particularly troubling given allegations of racially motivated mail withholding in the underlying case. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 9 Habeas Corpus Bills of Attainder Ex Post Facto Laws, The Emoluments Clause ⁠⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠⁠ or⁠⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Justin open with a deep discussion of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2026 Munich Security Conference speech. Trey argues that the speech fits into a Huntington Clash of Civilizations modality, which while it unites with Europe attacks the larger evils of the other. Both hosts dive into what Western Civilization means, why it isn’t a bad thing, but why it is important to be careful in drawing good guys and bad guys into civilization conversations. Next, the guys turn to Learning Resources v. Trump, or the Supreme Court’s rebuke of Trump’s tariffs. Trey comes in hot and argues that the minority opinion’s view, especially Justice Thomas, completely misunderstands the Constitution and elevates the problematic unitary theory of the executive view of the presidency. Justin believes that the Trump administration will simply bring forward the tariffs again. Both hosts agree that the president’s comments after the ruling are troubling. After that, they move to discussing the death of Jesse Jackson. Here, they focus not only on his legacy but what this means for the future of civil rights and the underlying changes to political protest in the age of social media. They close with an in-depth discussion of Iran’s attempted closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing U.S. pressure on Iran. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices