The Pomp Letter

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To Investors,The American economy is booming. At least that is what the GDP numbers are telling us. US GDP grew 3.8% year-over-year in Q2 and the Atlanta Fed is estimating Q3 growth to be between 3.5% - 3.8%.Historical context is important to understand the magnitude of these numbers. The average GDP growth for countries around the world is approximately 2.9% and the United States has outperformed for the last 80 years by growing GDP on average 3.2% annually from 1947 to 2025.So what is driving the good times right now?The answer is very simple: artificial intelligence. Adam Kobeissi shows that approximately 63% of all GDP growth is coming from AI-related spending. This means that without the AI CAPEX boom, the US economy would be in a significantly worse position.This AI-related spending can be best visualized by looking at data center spending since 2020. Kobeissi writes “spending on data centers in the US has tripled since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. Spending on structures excluding data centers is down ~20% since the 2023 high. The strength of technology companies has created two “economies” in the US.”Speaking of two economies, compare the explosion in AI-related spending with the fact that US small business bankruptcies reached a record 2,221 year-to-date. This is up 83% over the last five years. These bankruptcies reflect high borrowing costs, cautious consumer spending, and economic pressures disproportionately affecting smaller businesses.This second economy also saw US employers announce 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, which is the second-highest in 16 years. These job cuts create a paradox where labor market deterioration coincides with the S&P 500 adding $17 trillion since April.Think of how crazy that is.Small businesses are going bankrupt and more than a million people lost their job, but US corporate profits hit record highs in Q4 amid strong demand and pricing power.If you looked up the definition of opposing outcomes, you would find these data points front and center as they expose inequality between corporate performance and worker outcomes. Plenty of people will use this information to rail against the system. They will stoke populism and claim that the only path forward is socialism.But we know that is not true. In fact, history shows us over and over again that economic incentives drive outcomes. Programs like Invest America will give people a stake in the capitalist system, while providing a financial head start for millions of young people.And the data shows that young people, particularly Gen Z, may be more enthusiastic about financial markets than you would think.Gen Z is starting to invest earlier than previous generations. About 54% of this cohort are beginning by age 21 compared to 31% of millennials and 27% of Gen X.Additionally, 63% of young adults view the stock market as an excellent wealth-builder. Gen Z favors stocks and millennials lean more into crypto as their primary investment. What is maybe most interesting, younger generations are nearly 3x more likely to hold speculative assets, including crypto-related stocks and day trading.So what is my big takeaway from all of this?There are pockets of great data in the economy and financial markets, but those big trends like AI are covering for areas of weakness. That is normal. There are people claiming everything is great or everything is horrible…both of the groups are right.But maybe the real lesson here is that we should trust the kids. They are enthusiastic. They are pouring capital into financial markets. They see value in AI, bitcoin, crypto, and robotics. These young people are predicting the future. We all should just make sure we are listening.Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementIs the Fed About to Trigger the Next Bitcoin Boom?I recently sat down with John Pompliano to dig into what’s really at stake at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting - whether the move should be 25 bps, 50 bps, or nothing at all.We breakdown how those decisions ripple through markets and why bitcoin’s unique monetary policy is becoming impossible for the world to ignore. Plus, discuss the shift as bitcoin miners move into AI infrastructure - why it’s happening, how they’re doing it, and what it means for investors.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s Letter is brought to you by The Bitcoin Dolce Visa!You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments.A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies.Private placements now open.1To investors,The US economy is getting hit with multiple deflationary forces at the same time. These converging trends are forcing the hand of the Federal Reserve towards lower interest rates and more money printing.First, we know that artificial intelligence and robotics are squeezing an insane amount of inefficiency out of every corner of the system. Companies can now drive more profits with fewer employees, which is usually referred to as “good deflation.” This is when supply expands faster than demand.So where can we see this happening in today’s economy? We see example after example of productivity surges, cost compression, and quality enhancements. This fosters a “deflationary boom,” where goods and services become cheaper, enhancing consumer purchasing power and supporting GDP growth without overheating.AI is not only making companies more productive, but we are reaching a point where AI can write its own software. Eventually, technologists promise us that humanoid robots will be doing many things in society, including manufacturing and assembling more humanoid robots. This type of exponential productivity is hard to understand today. It is probably the most important deflationary trend though.Elon Musk, the founder of numerous multi-billion dollar companies at the intersection of AI and robotics, recently discussed how these technologies should create deflation and help address the national debt crisis.Take a listen:It seems like deflation is the obvious end state when Elon explains his view on these technologies in relation to the growth of America’s money supply.But Elon understands that AI and robotics are still not making a big enough impact on the economy to reach a deflationary state yet. Part of that gap is because of the ridiculous amount of money that is being printed by the US government, but another aspect is that AI and robotics remain in a relatively nascent stage. Elon’s estimation is that the US economy will hit a deflationary period in three years:Now Elon Musk is known for aggressive timelines and plenty of critics will argue that his estimation is off by a decade or more. I wouldn’t be so sure though. The pace of innovation, and the acceleration in adoption for AI and robotics, tells me the deflationary impact is much closer than most people realize.These technology trends are not happening in a silo either.The second big trend we have to pay attention to are demographics and proposed policy shifts. Both of these are curbing consumer demand and shrinking the labor supply, creating a potential “deflationary shock.” Economist David Rosenberg highlights three converging forces:* Aging workforce: The US median age is 42.3 (up from 36 in 2000), with the dependency ratio (the number of non-working people vs people of working age) rising to 37% by 2035, reducing spending on discretionary goods.* Immigration restrictions: Tighter policies limit population growth and low-wage labor inflows, suppressing household formation and service-sector demand.* Tariffs: broad tariffs (e.g., on imports) could slash consumer spending by raising costs, leading to a demand cliff.These three factors could weaken aggregate demand, which can cause prices to fall as businesses face oversupply and cut prices to clear inventory. On the positive side, lower demand might stabilize housing and services inflation, but it risks a vicious cycle of delayed spending and job losses, especially in retail and construction.Getting this balance right is very important. You want deflation without recession. This can only be done by creating positive supply-side factors rather than a collapse in demand. This is often called “good deflation” or “growth deflation,” where prices fall due to increased productivity, technological advancements, or efficiency improvements that boost output and real incomes.As one example, we are seeing this “good deflation” happen in energy costs over the last year. The decline in energy costs are due to increased domestic production, milder global demand, and efficiency gains from renewables and AI-optimized grids. US gasoline prices are projected to drop 3% (11 cents/gallon) in 2025 vs. 2024, with energy inflation at -1.6% year-over-year as of July 2025.These cheaper energy prices act as a broad disinflationary tailwind, including lower input costs for manufacturing and transportation. This boosts household disposable income (ex: saving the average driver ~$150/year on fuel) and supports profit margins for energy-intensive industries. However, prolonged declines could hurt oil/gas producers (ex: job cuts in Texas), contributing to regional economic slowdowns. Nationally, it reinforces the Fed’s path to 2% inflation but amplifies deflation risks if paired with weak demand elsewhere.Specific to energy costs, these drivers are predominantly supply-side (AI and increased energy production) or demand-constraining (demographics/policies). This combination promotes sustainable growth but raising risks of a sharper downturn if they intensify. Again, remember the balance of deflation without recession is really important to get right. The United States has been able to accomplish this many times throughout history. Here is a list of example time periods:We have done it before, which means we can do it again. Technology, demographics, and policies can bring prices down and create an economic boom.Elon Musk knows it is possible. He is quite literally trying to create that future. But for all the talk of inflation, it seems like many investors are ill-prepared for a world where deflation dominates the economy.As Stanley Druckenmiller once said, “Every serious deflation I’ve looked at is preceded by an asset bubble, and then it bursts.” And there are plenty of people screeching about an asset bubble given current prices. So now the question becomes “will the asset bubble burst and bring deflation?”I will let each of you answer that question for yourself.Hope you have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin & Artificial Intelligence Just Hit A Major Inflection Point with Jordi VisserJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience, and he also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we break down the major forces driving markets today — bitcoin’s price action, accelerating institutional adoption, the latest AI developments, internal tensions at OpenAI, and an overlooked industrial company he believes will be critical to the future economy. We wrap with a sharp look at the Fed, interest rates, deflation signals, and why easy money is still flowing through the system.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsor* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s Letter is brought to you by The Bitcoin Dolce Visa!You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments.A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies.Private placements now open.1To investors,Professional investors care about their returns and they care about the correlation in their portfolio. The return measures how much money they are making, while correlations measure how much pain they could feel if a recession or financial panic sets in.The former shows you upside and the latter illuminates potential downside.This is important right now because we are living through a regime change in asset correlations. Remember, we saw all assets (stocks, bitcoin, gold, etc) go higher together in 2021, they all fell in unison in 2022, and these assets collectively recovered very aggressively in the last few years. Just like a hand in a glove, these assets ebbed and flowed with each other.That is starting to change though. Take a look at the performance of various assets over the last 12 months:* S&P 500: +12%* Gold: +59%* US Treasuries (TLT): -1.25%* Bitcoin: -10%There are a few major takeaways from these data points. First, US treasuries continue to be a money-losing proposition over the short and long-term. TLT is down more than 40% over the last 5 years and it is negative over the last 12 months too. Second, stocks and gold have done very well in light of the return to monetary easing and misplaced inflation fears. Add in the AI boom for the equity market and it has been a great year for anyone holding these assets.In fact, Adam Kobeissi explains how strong the current stock market momentum is:“The S&P 500 has finished positive for 7 consecutive months, the longest streak since 2018. Over this period, the S&P 500 has gained +23.9%. This is also in line with the rallies seen in 2009, 2013, and 2021. Meanwhile, the Dow has seen 7 straight monthly gains, the longest streak since early 2018. With December historically one of the strongest months for the market, upside momentum is strong. The bulls are in control.”This brings us to bitcoin. The digital currency has been a big disappointment performance wise for many investors in 2025. The widely held belief was that bitcoin would continue the 4-year cycle, including a big blow off top in Q4. Instead, bitcoin is down double digits over the last year and to throw salt in the wound, bitcoin’s dismal performance has been against the backdrop of equities and gold doing so well.Look at this chart from Justin Gallum. It shows that gold has continued to track M2 global liquidity, while bitcoin departed in the opposite direction sometime in Q3 of this year.This brings us back to correlations. Investors want to add non-correlated assets into their portfolio so they can increase their risk-adjusted return and reduce the volatility of their investments without giving up potential returns.The general thesis is that various assets have different demand drivers. For example:* Stocks → driven by earnings & liquidity* Gold → driven by real rates & currency strength* Bitcoin → driven by liquidity, adoption, risk-on sentiment* Farmland → driven by crop yields & climate* Art → driven by collector demandThis is why you constantly hear financial advisors yell about diversified portfolios. They are playing a spreadsheet game that attempts to decrease risk without sacrificing returns. Of course, that is not what actually happens in the real world. You actually have to increase risk and volatility in a portfolio to optimize for total returns. You quite literally should be getting paid for the risk you are taking. But that is not how all investors think. They instead will look at a comparison of these various assets and see that gold’s one year performance is high, the one year volatility is low, and both the one and five year Sharpe ratios are superior. This is a dream for many investors. The question is whether the dream can continue or if nightmares are right around the corner. If you have been listening to me throughout the year, you probably know I am very optimistic about the next few years in financial markets.Public equities are poised to continue moving higher. The AI boom is very real and likely only beginning. The fact that our politicians can’t stop spending money means that gold and bitcoin will continue doing well. And maybe the only asset I am bearish on for the next 2-3 years is US treasuries, which seem to be designed to go down forever in value.Time will tell if I am right or not. But in the current moment, we are watching the breakdown of correlations. Assets are not moving in lock step like they were in recent years. This creates more opportunities for investors to create outperformance…or to underperform the market. Let’s hope each of you is on the right side of that outcome.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWhat I Really Think About Bitcoin, Inflation and Economic PolicyAnthony and John Pompliano dig into whether markets have truly bottomed or if more pain is coming.They break down the economy, inflation, rates, politics, and immigration — and how all of it is shaping investor psychology right now. Plus, they unpack Mike Green’s argument that America’s real poverty line may be closer to $140,000 than $31,000.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsor* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by Lava!Lava’s bitcoin-backed line of credit allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin.Borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry— starting at just 5%.Lava is the only bitcoin lending platform available globally—you can borrow from any country or state.With Lava, you can access a full suite of bitcoin-powered financial tools:→ Borrow dollars instantly→ Earn 5% APY on your USD balance→ Buy bitcoin with zero feesIt’s everything you need to grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.To investors,The Federal Reserve and the Board of Governors have a history of debating policy decisions behind closed doors, yet they almost always put on a united front when it comes time for their periodic vote on monetary policy. That is why it was such a big deal when two Fed Governors dissented at the same time back in July of this year.Not one, but two Governors dissenting in the same meeting. We had not seen two Fed Governors dissent in the same meeting since 1993, so the rarity of the situation raised eyebrows. At the time, most people wrote off the anomaly as a politically driven outcome. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to be a fan of Donald Trump and the two Fed Governors who dissented were Trump nominees.The Fed is supposed to be independent, but if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. The institution is made up of humans. Humans are biased. That bias doesn’t have to surface in a malicious or nefarious way, but every human is affected by their personal beliefs. That is how human nature works. No one, not even a central bank, is safe from it.But now we are getting information that those two Governor dissents in July may have been the warning sign of things to come. Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva published an article over the weekend titled Fed Watchers Turn to Vote Counting as December Rate Drama Grows. In the article, Catarina writes:“Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell stays silent.The drama was amped up Friday when New York Fed President John Williams, sometimes seen as a proxy for the Fed chief, signaled his support for a rate cut after several other policymakers came out leaning against one.Powell himself hasn’t spoken publicly since the central bank’s last rate decision on Oct. 29. But a tally of recent remarks suggests the other voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are now nearly evenly split over what to do, all but ensuring some will vote against the Dec. 10 decision regardless of the outcome.”These dissents are a big deal because they show cracks in the central banks’ armor. You can think of the constant dissents, especially from Fed Governors, as a very negative signal. There is no consensus. There is no peace. These dissents also highlight how difficult and complex the current economic environment is. The recent disagreements are even more pronounced because Chairman Powell has done a good job driving consensus during his tenure, but that is all changing now. This situation reminds me of the book Lords of Easy Money, which is the best break down of the Federal Reserve’s actions during the Global Financial Crisis.The book is important because it lays out what many people are afraid to say in public: the Federal Reserve may have done more harm than good to the US economy in the last 20 years.The book’s description states:“If you asked most people what forces led to today’s unprecedented income inequality and financial crashes, no one would say the Federal Reserve. For most of its history, the Fed has enjoyed the fawning adoration of the press. When the economy grew, it was credited to the Fed. When the economy imploded in 2008, the Fed got credit for rescuing us.But here, for the first time, is the inside story of how the Fed has reshaped the American economy for the worse…The Lords of Easy Money skillfully tells the fascinating tale of how quantitative easing is imperiling the American economy through the story of the one man who tried to warn us.”That one man was Thomas Hoenig and he looks very smart in hindsight. So what did Hoenig do? His legacy is explained with the following:“In the aftermath of the 2007 recession, Hoenig was thrust upon a national stage as he spoke out frequently about the financial crisis and its causes, as well as the response to the crisis in terms of both regulatory changes and monetary policy. He cast the lone dissenting vote against the FOMC’s easy money policies at each of the eight FOMC meetings in 2010 and was troubled by the FOMC’s stated promise of keeping the federal fund rates at a historic low for “an extended period.”He also spoke out frequently about the large and systemically critical financial firms known as “too big to fail,” whose carelessness and mismanagement, he said, were a major cause of the crisis.”With the benefit of hindsight, it is hard to argue that Hoenig was wrong. My guess is other people in the room disagreed with the decisions being made, but they chose loyalty to the Fed institution over loyalty to the American people. Today it looks like there are fewer Federal Reserve officials willing to make that mistake again.If the Fed held their monetary policy vote today, instead of on December 10th, Jim Bianco believes the current split would be 7-5 in favor of another interest rate cut. That belief is supported by the approximately 63% odds being assigned by the market to a December rate cut. Even Polymarket has the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December at 95% right now.But this rate cut decision is not going to happen for another four weeks. The vote won’t happen today. We have to wait until December 10th. That is a long time in financial markets. Data can change. Sentiment can change. And opinions can change. So you can’t rely on today’s information for a guaranteed outcome.However, one thing that has been changing is the financial environment for the average American. They are in pain and want relief as fast as possible. Maybe a rate cut would help in some cases, but it may also create more pain in other cases. MSNBC’s Kristen Welker asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday “how long do Americans need to be patient? How long do they have to wait for the cost of living to come down?”Bessent responded with his views on the “three I’s.” He said:“I talked about the three I’s that were killing Americans: immigration, interest rates and inflation. The president’s closed the border, and the mass immigration is gone. And that was putting – a lot of the immigration was putting upward pressure on housing, downward pressure on wages. Interest rates are down… So across the board, prices are starting to come down. We’re having Thanksgiving week. This will be the lowest cost for a Thanksgiving dinner in four years. Turkey prices are down 16%.”This is ultimately the challenge of managing an economy. The Federal Reserve is slowly bringing down interest rates, while the Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration’s economic policy advisors are trying to address affordability on a national stage. You can think of the Fed trying to pull the short-term lever and the rest of the government trying to pull long-term levers. It isn’t a perfect analogy, but it is closer to reality than people think. There will never be perfect solutions to these problems. The global economy is a complex machine. No one can agree on what the data says, let alone how various decisions will impact the economy. Politics, monetary policy, and economic decisions are all intertwined now. And all eyes are on the Fed’s December rate cut decision.My guess is the central bank will cut another 25 basis points. I don’t necessarily agree with that decision. My preference all year has been for a 50 basis point cut so we can quickly get to a sub-3% number for the cost of capital. That should provide relief for the average family, incentivize investment in R&D, and generally increase GDP to even more impressive levels of growth.I don’t think there is any chance of us getting a 50 basis point cut, especially because the Fed is flying blind without some of the BLS data from recent months. So they will chicken out and continue slowly bringing down the Fed funds rate. But if they don’t cut interest rates for some reason, there will be chaos on Wall Street and markets will fall. The crowd knows we need cheaper capital, so the Fed is expected to deliver. And market chaos is not something Jerome Powell and the Fed are willing to risk.Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow. - Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin Fear Hits All-Time High — What Happens Now?Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and produces deep-dive investing videos on YouTube. In this episode, we unpack the latest market pullback — why prices are dropping, why investor fear has spiked, and whether this is the start of a bear market or simply a healthy correction. We also break down asset performance, where Jordi sees opportunity, and the signals that could mark a reversal — plus a quick look at Bitcoin’s volatility and what it means for long-term investors.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsor* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To investors,Bitcoin has crashed approximately 30% from the all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th. The digital currency is now negative on the year and up less than 1% over the last 12 months. As you would expect, bitcoin holders are very disappointed in the asset’s performance.Sentiment online is about as negative as I can remember it ever being. But ancedotes on the internet can be misleading. Reddit or X can be echo chambers. So what exactly is the data telling us?Here are five charts that explain what is happening.First, Zerohedge shows that “the last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower.” That data point is a big narrative violation. Everyone, including me, expected bitcoin to close the gap between bitcoin’s price and global liquidity. Since that hasn’t happened, many people are wondering if the market has fundamentally changed now that Wall Street has started adopting the asset.Regardless of the reason, no one can dispute that bitcoin has corrected 30% in the last month and a half. James van Straten explains this is the “third 30% correction for Bitcoin this cycle. Each correction, the time from peak to trough has compressed, this has accelerated the max fear sentiment. * August 2024 (Yen Carry): 147 days * April 2025: (Tariffs) 77 days * November 2025: 42 days”And this correction has now hit oversold territory. Coin Bureau shows “Bitcoin’s daily RSI has dropped to 26, its lowest since February, putting Bitcoin in oversold territory.”Quinten Francois highlights a similar dynamic is playing out with short-term holder supply in profit or loss. We are seeing more than 95% of all coins that have been acquired in the last 155 days are now underwater.This is obviously a fast way to drive fear into a market and tank sentiment. But markets don’t bleed forever. Eventually an asset gets cheap enough where it becomes attractive to investors. Maybe that is bitcoin at $90,000 per coin or maybe it is lower. I don’t know the exact level where we see the persistent bid return. However, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin whales, those with more than 1,000 bitcoin, have suddenly started buying bitcoin aggressively at the current price level.So we have bitcoin’s price crashing even though global liquidity is surging higher. We have an asset that is now deeply oversold, which is enticing the bitcoin whales to start buying again. And we have a Fear and Greed index that is still registering below 20.This is the volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that forged bitcoiners over the years. Those who can keep their head straight when everyone else is losing their mind have traditionally done well. It is much easier said than done though.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin Market Just ROTATED This Month - Here’s What’s NextJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.In this conversation, we break down the recent sell-off in asset prices, including why the absence of a clear catalyst matters, how it may change the way you think about your portfolio, and where Jordi believes capital could rotate over the next 12–16 months.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by Lava!Lava’s bitcoin-backed line of credit allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin.Borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry— starting at just 5%.Lava is the only bitcoin lending platform available globally—you can borrow from any country or state.With Lava, you can access a full suite of bitcoin-powered financial tools:* → Borrow dollars instantly* → Earn 5% APY ****on your USD balance* → Buy bitcoin with zero feesIt’s everything you need to grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.To investors,The home affordability crisis is having a ripple effect across American politics, financial markets, and society at large. This issue will be one of the most important things for investors to pay attention to over the next decade.First, home affordability is impacting central bank monetary policy. This summer Jerome Powell said “the best thing we can do for the housing market is to restore price stability.” Take a listen:While Powell’s comments are true that inflation stabilizing would have a positive impact on housing, the current administration believes the artificially high interest rates are also contributing to an erosion of home affordability. This makes sense…if interest rates are high, mortgage rates are high. If mortgage rates are high, fewer people can afford to own a home.This position from the Trump administration has led to a very public pressure campaign from the President, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte to get rates lower. Jerome Powell and the Fed will claim they don’t succumb to pressure campaigns, but the Fed started cutting rates within weeks of the public pressure ramping up over the summer. Could it be a coincidence? Sure. Do I think the lack of home affordability in America is influencing Fed monetary policy? Absolutely. But home affordability is not only affecting monetary policy. We see in financial markets that companies in the real estate market have done very well as investors place bets on various companies’ ability to solve the housing crisis. Take Opendoor as one example. Retail investors have flocked to the stock and went activist on the old management team. The CEO stepped down shortly after the activist campaign started, the company hired the former COO of Shopify, and Opendoor is now going through a significant transition from an investment company to a software company.These various changes have led to the company’s stock price going from around $0.50 at the low this year to the closing price of $9.37 per share yesterday. Can Opendoor increase access to home ownership? We are going to find out. But I became an investor in the company this year and am genuinely proud to have my investment dollars helping to fund a company that is focused on helping more Americans own a home. I suspect there are many others like me who want to see this problem solved.This is an interesting dichotomy from the performance of various home builders. Lennar is down -0.2% year-to-date, D.R. Horton is up only 6%, and NVR is down nearly 9% in the same timeframe. PulteGroup is one of the rare standouts with a nearly 13% appreciation this year.As I mentioned at the start, the housing market is having an impact everywhere. It touches on technology, tariffs, and monetary policy. It is a complex market that will create lots of mispricings over time. Investors are trying to figure out who can create value over the long run and who can’t. But nowhere is housing having a bigger impact than in American politics.We saw Zohran Mamdani get elected New York City mayor while openly running as a socialist who promised free buses, rent freezes, and government-run grocery stores. President Trump and his administration have floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage to help alleviate the financial pressures preventing young people from buying a home. And Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte told me last week in a public interview that US home builders need to build more homes or the US government may take a deeper look at what federal dollars are flowing to these companies.Monetary policy. Financial markets. Politics. Everywhere you look, home affordability is driving part of the story. So how do we fix this? What is the solution?You build more housing. Yes, it is really that simple.It doesn’t even matter what type of housing you build. You can build affordable housing and the increased supply will drive down the cost of affordable housing. More supply means lower prices. Economics 101. But recent studies show that building luxury apartments also drive down housing costs in a city. The UPJohn Institute writes:“In cities with tight housing markets, policymakers have struggled to help lower-income residents afford homes. New research shows that just building new housing—even expensive housing—can quickly drive down housing costs across metro areas, including in low-income neighborhoods.Building housing sets off a process called a migration chain, as people leave their homes to move into new units. When people vacate a given type of unit, it loosens the market for that type of unit, which lowers prices. Other people move into the newly vacant homes, leaving their previous units vacant, and the process repeats itself again and again.”So what is my big takeaway from this? The first principles solution to numerous issues and complexities in American society is to simply build more housing. It will positively impact monetary policy, financial markets, and politics. More housing pushes us back towards the American dream. More housing increases adoption of capitalism and democracy. And more housing helps American families get closer to the financial security they are passionately chasing.Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementJordi Visser Explains Why $100K Bitcoin Is Just the Beginning Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin’s “IPO moment” — why investors are feeling disappointed, what’s really happening beneath the surface, and how these dynamics could reshape portfolios in the months ahead.Jordi also shares his perspective on Tesla, artificial intelligence, and the shifting political landscape — explaining how the New York City mayor race and overall market sentiment could influence the next phase of global investing.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by Lava!Lava’s bitcoin-backed line of credit allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin.Borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry— starting at just 5%.Lava is the only bitcoin lending platform available globally—you can borrow from any country or state.With Lava, you can access a full suite of bitcoin-powered financial tools:* → Borrow dollars instantly* → Earn 5% APY ****on your USD balance* → Buy bitcoin with zero feesIt’s everything you need to grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.To investors,The US economy is in a very weird position. We are watching companies accelerate their earnings, while the job market is declining at a rapid pace. You will read headlines about how great everything is going followed by headlines about how horrible everything is.Both perspectives are true. It just depends where you are looking.Take corporate earnings as a positive example. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello writes “with 70% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are up 19% year-over-year, the 11th straight positive quarter and highest growth rate since Q4 2021.”Given how well corporations are doing, you would expect investors to be euphoric. Their portfolios are growing in value and stocks keep climbing higher. But in the surprise of the year, investors are incredibly negative right now.Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick points out investor sentiment currently sits at Extreme Fear even though “a few days ago the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq-100 all closed at new monthly all-time highs.”It is crazy to think about stocks at all-time highs, yet investor sentiment in the toilet. Those are the type of ingredients that almost certainly guarantee we can’t be at a market top. The sentiment divergence is not exclusive to investors either. Jim Bianco shows consumer sentiment is falling rapidly as well. He writes “Red is the stock market. It’s going straight up. Rate cuts help. Blue is consumer sentiment, it’s going straight down and is near a multi decade low. Inflation (affordability) is driving this measure lower. Rate cuts hurt.”Lets go back to investors for a second though. Ryan Detrick goes on to explain that the market is overwhelmed with bearish investors. They are everywhere. He writes “AAII bulls minus bears is -11.1% in 2025. Only 3 other times has this ever been -10% and all happened in bear markets (1990, 2008, and 2022). Incredibly, bears outnumber bulls by 11.1% in ‘08, the exact same level as in 2025 so far.”But the dichotomy gets even weirder when you dig deeper into the data. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was asked about the US economy last night in an interview and he said “Which way is the stock market going? Up, up, up! Which way is the economy going? 3.8% last quarter... the economy is on fire because Donald Trump’s economy is one that says... BUILD IN AMERICA.”Lutnick is not wrong. But contrast that with the jobs data that came out this morning. CNBC’s Jeff Cox explains:“Job cuts for the month totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. This has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.”So the economy is booming but the job market is deteriorating. Stocks are flying higher, yet sentiment is succumbing to gravity. The obvious culprits are artificial intelligence and interest rate cuts. Both trends help corporations and asset owners at the expense of the average citizen who has little to no investment assets.I don’t know what the solution to this problem is. The complexity here is hard to overstate. You can’t allow corporations and asset owners to be destroyed because job losses will only accelerate. You can’t continue to have half of the country being financially destroyed due to technology, economic conditions, and a lack of financial education.This may be one of the great challenges of our time. We have to walk a tight rope between these opposing forces. A potential solution is to get more Americans invested in the capitalist system. Programs like Invest America, which wants to fund a stock brokerage account for every baby born in America, could have a positive impact. The issue with a program like that is it will take decades to see the impact.It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pursue the program. We just can’t count on it as a magic solution today. One idea I have been thinking through is a “Stock Dividend” to the American people. It could work as a potential tax rebate. The government would determine an amount to be returned to every citizen, but rather than pay in cash, the government would deliver shares of the S&P 500 or Nasdaq.There are a lot of nuances that would have to be figured out. And we have to remember a large portion of the country doesn’t pay federal income tax, so you would have to account for those people in the program too. But this type of creative, entrepreneurial idea would get every American a stake in the economic system. It would have a profoundly positive impact on their financial life and it would likely create a less divisive political environment.The people are screaming they need help. How the government, the economy, and corporations decide to respond will determine a lot about the next few years in the United States.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin’s Big Risk ExposedJeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we dive into the current bitcoin market cycle — why price sentiment has shifted, whether younger investors are losing interest, and where the next wave of buyers could come from.Jeff also breaks down how both macro forces like interest rates and micro market dynamics are influencing bitcoin’s trajectory, and reacts to Scott Bessent’s viral tweet that might signal a turning point for crypto markets.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees1 on your first transaction.To investors,The stock market has been on a tear this year. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% and the Nasdaq has surged 23% higher year-to-date. This outperformance is largely attributed to the investment boom related to artificial intelligence.But one question lingers in the mind of every investor…are we in an AI bubble?The answer to that question will determine the portfolio returns of tens of millions of people. Before we discuss whether we are in a bubble or not, it is important to understand what is actually happening in the economy.The best description I have seen comes from Adam Kobeissi when he wrote about the AI construction boom:“The Dodge Momentum Index surged +60% YoY in September, to the highest on record. This index serves as a leading indicator of non-residential construction, tracking projects that typically move from planning to groundbreaking within 9–12 months. The jump was led by a +75% YoY spike in institutional projects such as healthcare and public buildings, and a +53% jump in commercial activity driven by data centers and retail. The index also rose +3% MoM in September, extending a powerful uptrend after +5% in August and +21% in July. In other words, the surge in AI-driven data center projects is set to translate into a powerful construction boom across the US in 2026. AI’s impact on the real economy is accelerating.”Goldman Sachs and Mike Zaccardi explain a big reason for this explosion is that mega-cap companies continue to exceed expectations on their AI CAPEX spending.So whether we are in a bubble or not, we know that companies are sinking insane amounts of money into building data centers and power generation. In fact, the investment in power generation is very important to pay attention to because the market is realizing that power, not chips, are the limiting factor for hyperscalers. Don’t take my word for it though. Here is Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella explaining the lack of power supply on a recent episode of the BG2 podcast:It is crazy to hear the CEO of a multi-trillion dollar company saying he has the compute capacity, but he doesn’t have the data centers and power supply to plug them into. This completely changes the way that investors will view the AI market.Strategist Shay Boloor explains:“The real constraint is not compute but power & data center space. This is exactly why access to powered data centers has become the new leverage point. If compute is easy to buy but power is hard to get, the leverage moves to whoever controls energy & infrastructure. Every new data center that $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META & $ORCL are trying to build needs hundreds of megawatts of steady power. Getting that energy online now takes years which means the players who locked in power early & built vertically across the stack are the ones with real control. Hyperscaler growth is no longer defined by how many GPUs they can buy but by how quickly they can energize new capacity.”Now Shay wrote this analysis before this morning’s mega announcements of energy deals with the hyperscalers. VanEck’s Matt Sigel points out “$15 billion in Bitcoin mining deals this morning. Sector market cap: ~$65 billion. Imagine if oil majors announced deals worth 20% of their market cap in one day. That’s how fast AI is rewiring the global energy stack.”The two deals this morning come from IREN and CIFR, two bitcoin mining businesses that are making the transition into AI data center providers. IREN announced a $9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft and CIFR announced a $5.5 billion deal with Amazon’s AWS.These mega deals prove the point that Satya Nadella was making. There is a significant supply-demand imbalance for data centers and energy production. You don’t have to be Albert Einstein to realize that the companies who solve this problem will create significant value for their shareholders.It is hard to have a bubble in AI when every person you talk to is yelling from the rooftop that demand is drastically outpacing supply. Bubbles only pop when a market gets saturated with supply and there are no buyers left. We are very, very far away from that moment. It doesn’t mean we won’t get there at some point in the future, but it does mean you can stop listening to the market crash predictors right now.Even the President of the United States believes “everybody wants AI because it’s the new internet. It’s the new everything. It’s one of the biggest things anyone’s ever seen. So everyone wants it. Yeah. I mean, the only problem is if you don’t get it.”It is hard to be bearish on a sector when the most powerful man in the world is actively creating policies that act as a tailwind for the industry.With that said, if I had to look at one aspect where risk can start to metastasize, it would be the use of leverage to fund CAPEX investments. We know that companies are reaching the limit of how much cash flow can be used for CAPEX investments. Mike Zaccardi shares a great chart to highlight where we are currently:Rohan Paul highlights the recent Bank of America research showing borrowing to fund AI data center spending has accelerated at a dizzying pace in September and October. Regardless of whether you are a bull or a bear on the AI bubble debate, no one is going to solve it. Only the market can do that. The market is the referee. And right now the market is telling us that AI companies are still undervalued compared to the value they will create by solving one of society’s hardest problems.Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementThe Truth About Why Bitcoin Isn’t Exploding (Yet)Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.In this conversation, we unpack the Fed’s interest rate cuts, the U.S.–China trade dynamic, and what they signal for global markets. We also dive into the Bitcoin, AI, and tokenized assets — explaining how these forces, alongside Tesla’s innovations, are shaping the next major investment cycle.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.1 Network, ecosystem, top-up and withdrawal fees may apply This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe