The Resilience Brief

So far, The Resilience Brief series has discussed a wide range of themes, to identify the environmental threat, risks and opportunities to militaries, both now and in the future. But how is NATO cohering this plethora of activity and what is it prioritising moving forwards? The Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (NATO) joins the virtual recording studio to share his signal to The Resilience Brief community in our final episode. Welcome to the twelfth, and final, episode in this series of The Resilience Brief. Across all our guests, we have drawn upon the knowledge, skills and experiences of a wide range of experts to help us understand the need for greater resilience to the effects of climate change. Guests have identified issues, trends, evolving threats and opportunities, to attempt to accurately forecast, and where possible mitigate, future challenges for defence. In our final episode, General Aurelio Colagrande, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (NATO) joins hosts Dr Sarah Ashbridge and Lieutenant Colonel Ali Beard for a quickfire round of questions, to reflect upon his own experiences and signal priorities for the NATO community looking forwards. To bring the series to a close, Ali and Sarah are joined by members of the core podcast team - Mathieu Bussieres (NATO CCASCOE) and Megan Pearce (Frazer-Nash) - for a final Resilience Debrief, to share their own views on the series and what they'd like to see looking forwards. We hope that you found the series useful. The Resilience Brief Team welcomes feedback from listeners to understand your thoughts about the series, and what you might like to see in any future series. To share your views, please complete our end of series survey. The views of all speakers represent their own opinions based on their individual experiences. All views belong to the individual speakers and do not reflect the official position of their employers or the IMCCS This podcast has been created thanks to the sponsorship and partnership of Frazer-Nash and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE). This product has also been enabled by the production services of Two Jacks Communications and project management services of S A Consultancy (Yorkshire).

In this episode, guest speakers examine how approaches to climate change vary geographically, specifically looking at how our allies and adversaries are tackling the global north and global south. A common theme across the TRB series so far has been the military's tendency to focus internally on their individual need to adapt to extreme environments rather than mitigation of their detrimental impact to climate change. However, given nations will routinely operate as part of a coalition, it is important to understand how climate change varies geographically – from the 'extreme cold' of the global north to the 'extreme heat' of southern Europe and into Africa. Similarly, we have heard little about how our adversaries are exploiting climate change projects to enhance their own resilience to reshape the strategic picture. In this episode, hosts Dr Sarah Ashbridge and Lieutenant Colonel Ali Beard are joined by Professor Katarzyna Zysk (INSTITUTE) and Rear Admiral (Ret.) Ben Bekkering (Royal Netherlands Navy) to hear more about how climate change is affecting the strategic picture in the global north and global south. How are potential adversaries such as Russia and China engaging with Climate Change? Are NATO's priorities aligned with those we seek to protect? What is the 'Arc of Instability' and how might it frame the future of NATO activity? Tune in to find out. The views of all speakers represent their own opinions based on their individual experiences. All views belong to the individual speakers and do not reflect the official position of their employers or the IMCCS This podcast has been created thanks to the sponsorship and partnership of Frazer-Nash and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE). This product has also been enabled by the production services of Two Jacks Communications and project management services of S A Consultancy (Yorkshire). Resources recommended by Episode 10 guest speakers: - Katarzyna Zysk (2025). Recalibrating Relations with Russia, Hague Summit Series No. 3. The International Centre for Defence and Security. - Katarzyna Zysk (2025). Russia's Nuclear Doctrine Amendments: Scare Tactics or Real Shift? United States Institute of Peace. - Katarzyna Zysk (2023). 'Struggling, Not Crumbling: Russian Defence AI in a Time of War.' RUSI Commentary. - Katarzyna Zysk and Rebecca Pincus (2023). 'Getting Sporty in Russia's Arctic?' War on the Rocks. - Katarzyna Zysk, Michael Raska, Richard Bitzinger and Ian Bowers (eds.) (2021). Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution in Russia [special issue]. Journal of Strategic Studies vol. 44 (4): 451-636. - Foundations of the Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic for the Period up to 2035 (Основы государственной политики Российской Федерации в Арктике на период до 2035 года), Presidential Decree No. 164, signed March 5, 2020, Amended February 21, 2023 (Presidential Decree No. 112) - Example war game report: Christopher Gray, Leif Bergey and Walter A. Berbrick (2011). Fleet Arctic Operations Game. U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons [game report]. - Example war game report: David A. Schlapak and Michael W. Johnson (2016). Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics. RAND Corporation Report.

Episodes 5-7 of TRB considered how Defence is tackling climate resilience on operations within individual domains – land, sea and air. But operations are rarely conducted in isolation. How does the conversation differ when synchronising planning and execution across multiple domains? TRB invites two MDO experts to find out more. Multi Domain Operations, or MDO, describes the military concept of coordinated planning of military activities, across all operating domains, in pursuit of strategic objectives. It is terminology that attempts to shift discussion from joint operations, to encourage a wider integrated approach, across both civil and military organisations. So how does the conversation around climate and resilience shift when we discuss operations in this context? Major General (Ret.) Simon Bernard (Canadian Armed Forces) and Dr Jack Watling (RUSI) join hosts Dr Sarah Ashbridge and Lieutenant Colonel Ali Beard to share their views. Tune in to find out more about systemic threats, building back connectivity after disruption, wartime access to expertise, and the balance of protection and projection. Resources recommended by Episode 8 guest speakers: Katherina Ley Best et al. (2023). Climate and readiness: Understanding climate vulnerability of U.S. joint force readiness. RAND Corporation (RRA1551-1).

Like land forces, navies are faced with the breadth and scale of climate related risks, so how is climate science informing conversations around maritime platforms and the future demands upon naval services? Our sub-series on domain specific risks continues with episode 6, which focuses on the unique threats and challenges for naval operations. What are the unique threats presented by a changing maritime environment, and how do these changes affect platforms? How are different navies responding to the increasing number of requests for humanitarian aid and disaster relief (HADR) services? Special guests Lisa Hammock (Royal Navy) and Arnaud Boehmann (independent analyst) join hosts Dr Sarah Ashbridge and Lieutenant Colonel Ali Beard to discuss key challenges and the importance of narratives to support strategic direction in the naval sphere. Our guests introduce us to projects from within NATO, such as the UK Royal Navy's work to explore the refuelling of a carrier strike group deployment, or the NATO Defence College Rome's modelling of future oceans; but also highlight lessons from allied partners such as Brazil and Indonesia. Intrigued? Tune in to find out more. Clarification: In this discussion, "multi-role" refers to a medical ship's ability to provide a range of medical services. It should not be interpreted as "dual-use" in an operational and humanitarian sense. In an Article V scenario, medical ships cannot be simultaneously deployed for both operational and humanitarian missions. The views of all speakers represent their own opinions based on their individual experiences. All views belong to the individual speakers and do not reflect the official position of their employers or the IMCCS This podcast has been created thanks to the sponsorship and partnership of Frazer-Nash and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE). This product has also been enabled by the production services of Two Jacks Communications and project management services of S A Consultancy (Yorkshire). Resources recommended by Episode 6 guest speakers: - German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007). 'Climate Change as a Security Risk.' - Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli (2025). 'The hunt for Red October in warmer oceans – Climate change and anti-submarine warfare.' NATO Defense College [outlook article], 19 March. Available online: https://www.ndc.nato.int/the-hunt-for-red-october-in-warmer-oceans-climate-change-and-anti-submarine-warfare/ - David J. C. MacKay (2008). Sustainable Energy – Without the hot air. Cambridge: UIT. - Stuart Goldsmith – Climate comedian: https://www.stuartgoldsmith.com/ - Laurie Laybourn. 'Overshoot: Navigating a world beyond 1.5°C' podcast: https://www.overshootpod.com/

Defence has a tradition of short-termism when implementing climate related policies, routinely seeking to deprioritise resilience initiatives to overcome budgetary shortfalls. In this instance, Generals sight the likelihood of a significant climate related disaster as low while environmentalists might argue otherwise. Is there a trend of failing to recognise or plan appropriately and what are the unintended consequences of a worst-case scenario. Armed forces across the NATO Alliance are faced with the challenge of both adapting to modern conflict but also the need to resilience challenges caused by climate change. Financial pressures have created a tendency to plan against short-term disasters rather than plan for enduring climatic change. While this allows forces to prepare and react to events such as tsunamis, flooding, drought, and wildfires, it ultimately results in a lack of investment in organisational resilience and masks the potential impact of longer lasting scenarios such as desertification. In this episode, guests Dr Duraid Jalili (King's College London) and Dr Fanny Thornton (PIK Institute) reflect upon how climate related disasters increase global instability and and the associated risk of not preparing for these boundary agnostic catastrophes. Finally, they highlight the importance of climate understanding to Defence, outlining how militaries must draw on existing sources in academia and industry to better predict the risk. Join hosts Dr Sarah Ashbridge and Lt. Col. Ali Beard to find out more. The views of all speakers represent their own opinions based on their individual experiences. All views belong to the individual speakers and do not reflect the official position of their employers or the IMCCS This podcast has been created thanks to the sponsorship and partnership of Frazer-Nash and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE). This product has also been enabled by the production services of Two Jacks Communications and project management services of S A Consultancy (Yorkshire). Resources recommended by Episode 4 guest speakers: - Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac. 2020. The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis. New York: Alfred A. Knopf. - Thomas Homer-Dixon's defence commentary, full publishing record available online at: https://homerdixon.com/library/ - Thor Hanson et al. 2009. "Warfare in Biodiversity Hotspots." Conservation Biology 23 (3): 578-587. - Madeline Beattie et al. 2023. "Even After Armed Conflict, the Environmental Quality of Indigenous People's Lands in Biodiversity Hotspots Surpasses That of Non-Indigenous Lands." Biological Conservation 286. - Strategic Command (UK). 2022. Sustainable Support Strategy. - Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). 2023. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. - Christophe Hodder – See Stockholm International Peace Research Institute profile and LinkedIn profile. - Dr Richard Millburn MBE, staff profile available on the King's College London website: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/dr-richard-milburn - Damon Centola et al. "Experimental Evidence for Tipping Points in Social Convention". Science 360. - Volkerrechtsblog. 2025. 'Systemic Impacts and Structural Shifts: Climate Change and the Role of the ICJ Advisory Opinion'. Volkerrechtsblog: International Law and International Legal though [Symposia article]. - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany - Adelphi Research, Germany - E3G, UK and Belgium - International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN), USA - EcoPeace Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jordan and USA - Climate Change & (In)Security Project, University of Oxford and Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research (CHACR)

For an armed force to be resilient, it must be able to meet its current and future needs, and to support the needs of the population(s) that it seeks to protect. The climate science community has a role to play in helping others to understand what the future world and the operating theatres within it might look like. But where should defence practitioners look to engage, and how much certainty is required to necessitate action now? In this episode, hosts Dr Sarah Ashbridge and Lieutenant Colonel Alistair Beard are joined by Lieutenant General Richard Wardlaw (Centre for Economic Security/SAID Business School, Oxford University) and Megan Pearce (Frazer-Nash) to explore the different tools and resources which can be utilised to both imagine the future world and navigate the potential risks that it could present to an armed force. From datasets, to wargaming, to risk management, our speakers signpost to the methods and approaches which can offer the most practical insights and allow us to reduce our own resilience risks, or diversify the risks that we present to our adversaries. The views of all speakers represent their own opinions and individual experiences. All views presented within this podcast series belong to the individual speakers and do not reflect the official position of their employers or the IMCCS This podcast has been created thanks to the sponsorship and partnership of Frazer-Nash and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE). Resources recommended by Episode 2 guest speakers: - Mittermaier, D; Merschroth, S; Šedová, B; Auer, C; Bohne, T; Ferri, S; Slouma, S; Gottwick, V. (2025). Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) – Technical Documentation V.1.2. Report and dataset available online at climate-conflict.org. - Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), Sustainability Leadership Executive Programme, University of Cambridge. - Extrapolations (2023). Apple TV series.