Thinking about...

Dear readers: Hope you have a cup of coffee in hand for this one. Tim joined Joyce Vance, former U.S. Attorney during the Obama Administration and host of Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance on Substack, to talk about what language to describe our moment, democracy, and civic participation look like today. Tim and Joyce started off by talking about how “sugarcoating” political realities can become a form of collaboration, because it delays the public response necessary to defend democratic institutions. They both also reject the idea that democracy inevitably self-corrects, stressing that there is no political “pendulum” that guarantees a return to normalcy. Tim also emphasized that democracies survive only when citizens actively participate in shaping their future.The rest of the discussion explored everything from the aftermath of the Iran war to threats against democratic norms at home, including debates over executive power, habeas corpus, voting rights, and the Supreme Court. Tim mentioned, regarding Iran, that authoritarian movements are often fueled by the illusion that force can solve complex problems, while history repeatedly shows that violence creates consequences its architects cannot control, which he writes about in his recent essays on Iran. To me, the most striking part of the conversation focused on what comes next. Tim and Joyce both urged Democrats and democracy advocates to think beyond simply winning the next election. Success, as Tim said, requires a broad coalition, a compelling vision of the future, and a willingness to pursue ambitious democratic reforms—from voting rights and anti-corruption measures to structural changes that will strengthen democratic institutions.Throughout the conversation, both Tim and Joyce returned to a common theme that has helped guide me as I try to navigate these times: history is not a script. There is no singular arc of the universe. The future remains unwritten. Whether America emerges stronger from this moment depends not on inevitability, but on the deliberate choices and actions citizens make now—and with each other. As Tim and Joyce put it in their closing messages, the answer is always action.Until next time, -VictorThinking about... is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

Dear Thinkers,This afternoon, Tim sat down with Ruth Ben-Ghiat for a conversation I think many of you will want to watch with a notebook in hand. Ruth is one of the foremost scholars of strongmen and authoritarianism — she teaches at NYU and has spent her career studying exactly the kind of moment we find ourselves in now. Together, she and Tim covered a lot of ground, from strongmen to oligarchs, to fascism, but the heart of the conversation was about how to make sense of what’s happening around us.One concept that stood out to me: the distinction between Superpower Suicide and Superpower Murder — a framework Tim has written about before, but which takes on new dimensions in conversation with Ruth. They also explored other ways of naming and framing this moment, and, crucially, what each of us can practically do in response.As Tim put it near the end, getting the language right isn’t just an intellectual exercise. It’s clarifying. It’s even enabling.Hope you find it as illuminating as I did.More Thinking Live conversations are on the way — stay tuned!— VictorThinking about... is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

Professor Janice Stein is a leading authority on negotiation and war as well as a regional specialist on the Middle East. Our conversation covers the origins of the Iran war, its meaning for the region and the world, and its possible trajectories. Throughout Professor Stein offers her characteristic wit and sharpness. I recommend that you have a listen.Thank you Michael Barclay, Mona Mona, Another Essay, Mangrove Valley, Shulamit Elson, and many others for tuning into my live video with Janice Stein! Join me for my next live video in the app.Thinking about... is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

This post contains my conversation with military historian Phillips O’Brien about the U.S. strikes on Iran. Phillips walked us through what air power can and can’t do — it can devastate a regime, but it can’t replace one, and what we’ve likely unleashed is a chaotic internal struggle with no clear plan for what comes next.The deeper question is why this is really happening. The answer, we agreed, has less to do with Iran than with Trump’s domestic troubles, his financial entanglements with the Gulf states who stand to benefit most, and his eye on the 2026 midterms. Whatever happens on the ground in Iran, we shouldn’t let the fog of war stop us from asking those questions clearly.Thinking about... is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

This afternoon, I had the pleasure of a long and wide-ranging conversation with Ava DuVernay—a producer and director whose work has consistently helped Americans see themselves and their history more clearly.We spoke about many things: where we are as a country, what history can still teach us, and what democratic coalitions have looked like when they have succeeded—and when they have failed. But we also spoke about the present moment, which has a way of intruding on even the most reflective conversations.In particular, we discussed the arrest of journalists Don Lemon and Georgia Fort while they were doing their jobs—documenting events of public importance. These arrests are not isolated incidents. They are signals. And history teaches us that when journalists, especially African American journalists, are treated as criminals for observing power, democracy itself is being tested.Ava and I talked about responsibility. History does not move on its own. It moves when people decide to act within it. The First Amendment does not enforce itself. It survives because citizens insist that it matters—not only when their own speech is threatened, but when someone else’s is.Today is a good day to talk about the First Amendment. Not abstractly, and not nostalgically, but concretely. Who is being prevented from speaking? Who is being punished for witnessing? Who benefits when journalists are made afraid?It is also a good day to celebrate journalists. Not because they are perfect—they are not—but because their work makes self-government possible. Journalism is how power becomes visible. It is how facts enter public life. It is how a society argues with itself without tearing itself apart.Ava reminded me, in her own way, that storytelling is a form of civic care. Journalists practice that care every day, often at personal risk. When we defend them, we are not taking sides in a culture war. We are taking sides with democracy.So I encourage you to talk about the First Amendment today. Talk about it with friends, students, colleagues. Ask what it requires of us now—not in theory, but in practice. And take a moment to thank a journalist.Thinking about... is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

Watch my conversation with Stacey Abrams. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

I had a wide-ranging conversation with the distinguished historian of war Philipps O’Brien, who has been an important voice on the Russo-Ukrainian war. In part one, we discuss the structural reasons for victory and defeat in war, and assess the first critical year (2022) of Russia’s current full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Please watch and share! Part two coming tomorrow. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe

Among all the other things that are happening, we have a US administration trying to bully Ukrainians into accepting Russia’s proposal that their sovereignty be undone. Aside from the naked injustice of this, there are five basic practical reasons why it would make the world far more dangerous. I summarize them here; you will find more writing on this subject elsewhere on my Substack, “Thinking about…” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit snyder.substack.com/subscribe