The New Regime | True North Podcast | Ep. 68

About this episode

The episode discusses the current state of Bitcoin and its market dynamics, focusing on leverage, credit risks, and investment strategies.

🎛️ As of this recording, 5/27/26, Strategy's (MSTR) performance: Open: $156.76 Close: $154.20 Volume: ~ 11.89M Shares mNAV: ~1.23 Market Cap: ~ $54B BTC: 843,738 ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS: 00:00:00 - Intro And NFA: Educational discussion and disclaimers 00:02:45 - Market Structure Overview: Bitcoin volatility and AI trade setup 00:04:36 - Amplification Dynamics: Dividend coverage and leverage improve 00:07:21 - Bitcoin Collateral Risk: 2022 balance sheet stress comparison 00:09:36 - Balance Sheet Stress Test: Bitcoin drawdowns and coverage durability 00:10:43 - Preferred Equity Security: Bitcoin overcollateralization strengthens credit 00:13:13 - Refinancing Strategy Shift: Cash reserves retire senior liabilities 00:16:10 - Capital Structure Psychology: Market reassesses reserve reduction risks 00:19:10 - Bitcoin Per Share Focus: Debt buybacks reduce dilution pressure 00:20:25 - Convertible Arbitrage Mechanics: Volatility traders value optionality 00:22:23 - Infinite Leverage Thesis: mNAV expansion under stressed Bitcoin 00:24:13 - Preferred Equity Risks: Amplification alters collateral assumptions 00:27:15 - Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure: Strategy equity outperforms spot BTC…

Topics covered

• Bitcoin volatility
• AI trade setup
• Market structure
• Capital structure
• Leverage
• Credit risk

Keywords

• Bitcoin
• AI
• market structure
• leverage
• credit risk
• preferred equity
• arbitrage
• digital credit

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Strategy

Products: mNAV, Preferred Equity Security, Convertible Arbitrage, Digital Credit, AI Memory Trade

Places: 2022, Bitcoin, AI, BTC

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