If Not for Bad Predictions
From WestPac Wealth Investments by Westpac Wealth Partners
February 2, 2026 · 12 min
About this episode
Joe examines the issue of overconfidence in investment forecasts through a historical lens.
If not for bad predictions, we might not have predictions at all. In this episode, Joe revisits a 2002 white paper titled “What Risk Premium Is Normal?” by Rob Arnott and uses it as a lens to examine one of the most persistent problems in investing: overconfidence in forecasts. From the “new economy” mindset of the late 1990s to today’s bold market projections, Joe breaks down why long-term return predictions are so often wrong, how expectations get distorted, and what investors should focus ...
People in this episode
Host: Joe
Topics covered
- predictions
- investing
- overconfidence
- market projections
- risk premium
- long-term returns
Keywords
- predictions
- investing
- overconfidence
- market projections
- risk premium
- long-term returns
Mentioned in this episode
Books & works: What Risk Premium Is Normal?
More episodes of WestPac Wealth Investments
- The Non Negotiable's · June 8, 2026 · 16 min
- Joe's Investing Story · May 25, 2026 · 13 min
- Nash Subotic, Founder & CEO of WestPac Wealth Partners · May 11, 2026 · 18 min
- War in Iran, Hormuz and Your Portfolio · April 27, 2026 · 10 min
- Young Adult Financial Series: Advising the Next Generation #2 · April 13, 2026 · 10 min
- Young Adult Financial Series - Advising the Next Generation · March 16, 2026 · 13 min
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the WestPac Wealth Investments podcast page.