If Not for Bad Predictions
About this episode
Joe examines the issue of overconfidence in investment forecasts through a historical lens.
If not for bad predictions, we might not have predictions at all. In this episode, Joe revisits a 2002 white paper titled “What Risk Premium Is Normal?” by Rob Arnott and uses it as a lens to examine one of the most persistent problems in investing: overconfidence in forecasts. From the “new economy” mindset of the late 1990s to today’s bold market projections, Joe breaks down why long-term return predictions are so often wrong, how expectations get distorted, and what investors should focus ...
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