What the Hell Is Going On

We’re now in the eighth week of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The Trump Administration is stuck in a holding pattern as Iranian negotiators continue to ignore US redlines and both sides insist on their own superior leverage. The unfortunate reality is that many in the Trump Administration are being fed a false calculus and discredit the ability of the US military to maintain the blockade, open the Strait, and destroy and extract nuclear material. To entertain such Iranian wishes as a billion-dollar reconstruction fund ignores the fact that CENTCOM Commander Bradley Cooper has confirmed: it would take 10-14 days to accomplish the full breadth of our military objectives in Iran. Yet, the Trump Administration is committed to making a deal, with Secretary Rubio echoing the same commitment to the negotiation seesaw. But Iran is an inherently bad faith actor. And it is using the upcoming midterms to its advantage. What now? How will we break the cycle? Thankfully we have General Jack Keane, who provides a clear-eyed strategy for victory against Iran.General Keane is widely recognized as one of America’s most respected authorities on foreign policy and national security. He is a retired four-star Army general, former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army having served our nation in uniform for 37 years. He is Fox News senior strategic analyst and is the chairman of the Institute for the Study of War.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

With the 2030 Census fast approaching, battles over redistricting and congressional apportionment continue to take shape. As population shifts continue, driven by migration from blue states to red states and the influx of illegal immigrants into sanctuary cities, both parties are looking to secure a larger share of political representation in the decade ahead. At the center of the debate is the Democratic Party’s reliance on a strict, constructivist reading of Article I’s “Free Persons Clause” to justify counting illegal immigrants in reapportionment and redistricting. Critics argue that the lack of legal basis hinder our ability to police the practice and contend that the voting power of American citizens are effectively diluted. Howard proposes an alternative approach: a citizenship initiative focused on those here legally and eligible to naturalize, rather than creating what he describes as modern-day “rotten boroughs”, districts with inflated populations but disproportionate influence in federal elections. Would the Democratic Party support such an effort? Or will they continue to double down on their outrageously unpopular embrace of high illegal immigration?Howard Husock is a senior fellow in Domestic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he focuses on municipal government, urban housing policy, civil society, and philanthropy. Before joining AEI, Mr. Husock was vice president for research and publications at the Manhattan Institute. He has also been a director of case studies in public policy and management at the Harvard Kennedy School, a member of the board of directors of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and a journalist and Emmy-winning documentary filmmaker.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

While we celebrate the US military's accomplishments over the first forty days of the Iran conflict, a less desirable outcome has been the significant expenditure of munitions and reallocation of critical resources to the region. In Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire, Colonel (Ret.) Mark Cancian and associate Chris Park crunch the numbers on the seven most heavily used munitions. Rest assured, there's enough left to cover any scenario with Tehran, but a future conflict with China in the Western Pacific highlights inadequate Pentagon inventories. Much like Ukraine before it, this conflict exposes the fragility of America's defense industrial base, making urgent, creative solutions from what Cancian and Park call the "primordial soup of R&D" essential. So, is Washington finally ready to take that lesson seriously?Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.Chris H. Park is a research associate for the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).Read the transcript here.Read the report here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

One week after claims of an "Iranian victory", with Tehran supposedly leveraging the Strait of Hormuz and outmaneuvering Donald Trump, the narrative has shifted. U.S. and allied naval forces have applied sustained pressure, effectively constraining Iranian shipping and energy exports, all without deploying ground troops. With these constraints in mind and the cards in Washington’s hands, the real deal making begins. But, apart from the challenge of the nuclear “dust,” the missile program, and terrorism, the regime will continue to pose a threat to its own people. With time on America’s side, should a grand strategy consider how to best empower the Iranian people?Miad Maleki is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a U.S. Air Force veteran. He previously worked as Associate Director for the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Global Targeting at the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), where he played a central role in architecting the Treasury Department’s sanctions campaigns against the Iranian regime and its extensive network of proxy groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis. Mr. Maleki also served as the assistant director for counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and Middle East sanctions and as OFAC’s chief and senior sanctions coordinator for Iran and the Middle East.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

The story from mainstream media is that the core of MAGA is "split" on the war with Iran, strikes in Venezuela, the Houthis, and other Trump 2.0 international policies. This supposed "MAGA schism" over foreign policy challenges Trump's coalition of America First isolationists and hawkish establishment Republicans. But the data tells a different story. Drawing on our coverage of the Reagan National Defense Survey and the work of our guest Kristen Soltis Anderson, we find no evidence of such a divide. In fact, MAGA voters appear overwhelmingly hawkish and strongly supportive of President Trump’s military operations, particularly in Iran. If a divide does exist within the Republican Party, it is more likely generational than ideological. What might that mean for the future of conservative foreign policy leadership? And as we look to 2028, what does a successful Republican candidate project on foreign policy according to the polls?Kristen Soltis Anderson is a pollster, speaker, TV personality, New York Times opinion writer, commentator, and author. Kristen is Founding Partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm that serves brands, trade associations, nonprofits, and political clients. She is an on-air political contributor at CNN and previously has been a contributor to Fox News Channel and ABC News. She currently writes the newsletter “Codebook” on Substack and is the author of, “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).”Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, we share cautious optimism with General Jack Keane on the current state of our military operation in Iran. News of Donald Trump's negotiations with Tehran and an extended partial ceasefire require us to carefully define our objectives and determine what a good deal really requires. General Keane makes it clear, "They would have to surrender to us in major concessions all the things that we are physically taking away from them to include keeping the Strait of Hormuz open." With a three-week horizon, is regime change at the hand of the Iranians still viable? What lies at the end for this regime, once their missiles, cash, and nuclear materials are gone? And what is Admiral Coopers' game plan to get us there?General Jack Keane is a retired 4-star general and former Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army. He is the Chairman of the Institute for the Study of War and a Fox News Senior Strategic Analyst.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Our WTH saga on Chinese espionage continues with a new installment on the technology inside your car. Chris Miller details “Huawei on wheels”: the security threat posed by Chinese EVs, whose sensors, cameras, microphones, and radars can transmit data directly from your car to servers in China. You might be thinking, “I don’t drive a Chinese car, so I’m safe.” Unfortunately, the broader trend is cause for serious alarm. Our European allies have once again failed to regulate Chinese influence and are adopting low-cost autonomous driving technology and communication components from China that report to Chinese satellites. Why doesn't this national security threat receive the congressional attention it deserves? Marc's thesis rings true: the more we comingle our economy with China, the harder it will be to remove threats and roll back poor policy decisions. As Chris Miller puts it, “These are smartphones on wheels, and we’ve got to treat them with the requisite level of security concern.”Chris Miller is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on Russian foreign policy, Ukraine, and broader Eurasia. He specializes in semiconductors and the geopolitics of technology. His latest book Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology reveals the geopolitical history of the computer chip. It is a New York Times bestseller and a winner of the 2022 Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Four years of war in which Russian forces have occupied roughly one and a half percent of Ukraine’s territory at the cost of approximately half a million lives. Our guest, Frederick W. Kagan, and his team at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) assess that Russia’s strategy is to win at the negotiating table what it cannot seize on the battlefield. Putin’s theory of victory rests on the assumption that Russian forces will continue grinding forward indefinitely, regardless of the cost, and that he will be able to persuade the West to abandon Ukraine, ultimately forcing Kyiv to concede more than it already has. Successful negotiation requires changing Putin’s calculus. Over the past four years, Ukrainians have made their position unmistakably clear: “We would rather die than be part of Russia.” So, what will drive this tipping point toward peace? Would a global inflection point against malign actors and axis partners change Putin's negotiating position? And what security guarantees from the West would be sufficient to sustain this hypothetical peace? Frederick W. Kagan is a senior fellow and the director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). He edits CTP’s and the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) daily updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He was previously an associate professor of military history at West Point, and he earned the Distinguished Public Service Award for his volunteer service in Afghanistan. Dr. Kagan coauthored the report Defining Success in Afghanistan and is the author of the “Choosing Victory” report series, which recommended and monitored the US military surge in Iraq.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

In addition to the media blitz over Greenland triggered by President Trump, American presidents going back a century have agreed on the strategic importance of the island due to its fundamental geography, proximity, and critical sea lines. China and Russia’s Arctic ambitions require greater defensive efforts by the (now sovereign) Danes and strong resistance to coercion should Greenlanders continue on their path to independence. Our guest sheds light on the various precedents underlying these concerns and the so-called "Cyprus Model" for the US's role. What does that roadmap look like? Do we need sovereignty to achieve our goals? If and when Greenland gains independence, what economic and security agreements will need to be made? And what impact, negative or positive, does Trump's rhetoric have on the conversation?Alexander Gray is the Chief Executive Officer of American Global Strategies LLC, an international strategic advisory firm that he co-founded with former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien. Mr. Gray most recently served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff of the White House National Security Council (NSC), where he directed the daily operations of the National Security Advisor’s immediate office, as well as the budget, personnel, and security functions of the NSC, as well as positions within the State Department and the Hill. Mr. Gray concurrently serves as Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, is a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC); a Senior Nonresident Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI); and a Senior Nonresident Fellow in the GeoStrategy Initiative at The Atlantic Council.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

With regime change brewing in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, and the Russian war of attrition still marching on, Cold War déjà vu shapes our understanding of what happens when regimes do fall and offers a hopeful conclusion. Former Soviet states that have joined the EU have experienced an average tenfold increase in GDP since 1990, while Russia and its non-EU neighbors have grown only fourfold. Like the stark contrast of the Berlin Wall, if Ukraine is free to continue to prosper economically, people in Russia’s border regions will begin to work out that the problem isn’t NATO, the problem isn’t ideology, the problem is the failure of the system in Russia to deliver. And in addition to the huge costs of the war already waged, that’s something Putin cannot afford. So, will Putin try to wait it out? What choices does he have to avoid failure? We asked an investment banker for his theory and the numbers are enlightening…Michael Tory is a co-founder and Chairman of the financial advisory firm Ondra Partners. Tory is also an outspoken advocate for and supports several NGO efforts in Ukraine. Previously, he served as head of UK investment banking for Lehman Brothers Inc. and has been a Senior UK investment banker of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Michael previously served as Morgan Stanley’s head of investment banking in the UK and worked in their New York office for over a decade. Tory is also principal of Turning the Page, which develops and publishes ideas for rebuilding the UK’s domestic capital markets and savings systems.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

The world is watching as protests rage across Iran amid nationwide internet blackouts, state-sponsored propaganda, and lethal security force crackdowns. Despite reports suggesting that hundreds, possibly thousands, have been killed at the time of this writing, Iranians are taking their future in their hands with extraordinary courage. For Tehran, what makes this wave of unrest different from those before it? Should civil war breakout, will we finally see a free Iran? Will President Trump enforce the red line he has drawn for the regime, and if so, what military options exist without deploying boots on the ground? Will President Trump ignore the eleventh-hour, desperate promises of diplomacy from Islamist leaders? He’ll need to if he intends to continue his administration’s legacy of freedom.Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also currently serves as director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

It is officially 2026, which means America is turning 250 this year. Our question on this semiquincentennial looks back to America’s founding and the constitutional framework that gave birth to our nation. America is the only nation founded not on blood or soil, but on a creed. Established by the Declaration of Independence, this creed, now more than ever, should be viewed through Jefferson’s words as a unifying force in our country as we continue to confront the challenges of a multicultural society. Both sides of the aisle have factions that seek to blame American democracy for our difficulties. Still, Professor Wood assures us that Americans are better positioned than any other people to mitigate these challenges because of our creedal identity. So what is the source of our strength? Is civic education the key to protecting our ideals? And how important are a free society and assimilation in preserving them?Gordon Wood is a renowned and highly awarded historian and Professor of History Emeritus at Brown University. He is the author of the Creation of the American Republic which won the Bancroft Prize and the John H. Dunning Prize, and The Radicalism of the American Revolution, which won the Pulitzer Prize for History and the Ralph Waldo Emerson Prize, among many other written works. In 2011 he was awarded a National Humanities Medal by President Obama and the Churchill Bell by Colonial Williamsburg. He is largely regarded as a leading scholar of Early American history, known specifically for his masterful prose and transformative understanding of true radicalism of the American Revolution. The American Enterprise Institute most recently awarded him the Irving Kristol Award.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

The Reagan National Defense Survey has again illuminated the MAGA world: MAGA Republicans are not isolationists, nor are the majority of Americans. Despite what those in Washington assert Americans believe, the latest polling reveals that 64 percent of Americans support U.S. leadership on the world stage, with eight in ten self-identified MAGA Republicans driving that figure. So why do we see this dissonance on the Right? Who gets to speak for “America First,” and what does it really mean? Why are figures within Trump’s ranks convincing him that his base opposes intervention and a strong foreign policy? The latest polling reminds us that the American people know who our enemies are, and they are telling us how they want to deal with them. Who’s going to listen?Roger Zakheim serves as the Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute. He previously practiced law at Covington & Burling LLP where he led the firm’s Public Policy and Government Affairs practice group. Before joining Covington, he was General Counsel and Deputy Staff Director of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee. Mr. Zakheim also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense where he supported the department’s policies and programs related to Iraq and Afghanistan coalition affairs. Mr. Zakheim also currently serves on the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace and is a Commissioner on the Congressional Commission on the National Defense Strategy of the United States.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.