Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets
From WSJ What’s News by The Wall Street Journal
May 4, 2026 · 15 min
About this episode
The episode discusses the challenges of prediction markets, highlighting a Journal investigation into why most bets result in losses.
A.M. Edition for May 4. President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz - but traders seem unconvinced, sending oil prices higher. Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant Ebay. And a Journal investigation reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss. WSJ’s Neil Mehta details the winners and losers of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket - and why the odds are worse than a Vegas slot machine. Daniel Bach hosts. Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
People in this episode
Host: Daniel Bach
Guest: Neil Mehta
Topics covered
- prediction markets
- oil prices
- GameStop
- Ebay
- financial trading
- investigation
- market odds
Keywords
- prediction markets
- oil prices
- GameStop
- Ebay
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- financial trading
- President Trump
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: GameStop, Ebay, Kalshi, Polymarket
Places: Strait of Hormuz
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