Window of Opportunity? Deterrence and Moscow’s Calculus
From Brussels Sprouts by Center for a New American Security | CNAS
May 29, 2026 · 55 min · Episode 83
About this episode
The episode discusses the implications of U.S. military reductions in Europe and Russia's response to these changes.
In the last episode of Brussels Sprouts, we looked at the dizzying series of U.S. announcements about America’s military posture in Europe. Since then, new reporting has emerged. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is preparing allies for a much larger reduction in the U.S. forces earmarked to reinforce Europe in a crisis—including reductions in bombers, naval assets, and refueling tinkers. In other words, this is not just about troop numbers on the continent today. It’s about whether the United States will still provide the critical enablers that have long underpinned NATO’s ability to deter and, if necessary, fight a major war in Europe. Moscow is watching all of this closely, and the timing matters. As Washington signals that it intends to do less, Russia is increasing pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. In recent weeks, Moscow has threatened Latvia over false claims that it is allowing Ukraine to use its territory or airspace to launch drone attacks against Russia. Baltic officials have rejected those claims, but the pattern is familiar: Manufacture a grievance, amplify it, and use it to build the foundation to justify future aggression. At the same time, Russia…
People in this episode
Host: Center for a New American Security
Topics covered
- U.S. military posture
- NATO deterrence
- Russia aggression
- Baltic security
- U.S.-Russia relations
Keywords
- military posture
- NATO
- Russia
- Europe
- deterrence
- Putin
- Baltic states
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Pentagon, NATO, Wall Street Journal
Places: Europe, Latvia, Russia, Ukraine
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