BTC Sessions

Mentor Sessions EP 104 | Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon on the petrodollar, who runs the world, the AI bubble, dollar collapse, gold vs Bitcoin, stablecoin bank runs and frozen bank accounts. Two wars, a quiet Russian diesel deal, and a $2 trillion AI build-out that one of these guests calls the greatest bubble in history. James Rickards and Simon Dixon sit down to map who is actually calling the shots in the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, and what it means for the dollar, gold, and your Bitcoin. Rickards war gamed finance as a weapon for the Pentagon, advised the CIA on financial threats, and was general counsel at Long Term Capital Management when the Fed stepped in. In this conversation you'll learn why he argues the debasement trade is nonsense and the dollar is getting stronger, why China's yuan can't become a reserve currency, and why he believes an unregulated stablecoin bank run could trigger a panic in the Treasury market. Simon Dixon pushes back with the view that war is the product, that the petrodollar is being quietly renegotiated as China becomes Saudi Arabia's main oil buyer, and that both gold and Bitcoin matter in the programmable control grid he sees coming. You'll also hear a sharp breakdown of the AI bubble, why superintelligence won't be achieved, and the latest supply-chain attacks on hardware wallets. ⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:33 - Who Is Calling The Shots In These Wars2:33 - Who Really Controls Ukraine's Leadership3:38 - Why Iran Has No Exit Strategy6:46 - US-Russia Deal That Could End Two Wars9:25 - Why Only China Russia And US Matter12:16 - Simon Dixon: War Serves The Power Structure15:13 - Midterms Weapons Shortages And Trump Agenda18:46 - Seventy Years Of Petrodollar Monetary History23:47 - Bigger Picture Above Trump And World Orders26:19 - Why The Debasement Trade Is Nonsense29:05 - China's Gold Reserves And Yuan Limitations32:08 - Using Inflation To Solve The Debt Problem33:09 - Petrodollar Shift From Saudi Arabia To China49:26 - Two Trillion Dollar AI Infrastructure Bubble55:42 - Why Superintelligence Cannot Be Achieved56:11 - Ice-Nine Freezing Accounts And Redemptions1:00:06 - Rickards Bitcoin Casino Chip Metaphor Explained1:01:08 - Stablecoin Bank Run Risks On The Horizon1:03:55 - Simon Dixon Stablecoins Versus Bank Deposits1:26:48 - Hardware Wallet Attacks Targeting Self Custody1:31:49 - Simon Dixon New Book Game Of Money 🔗 Links & Resources:James Rickards newsletter - https://rickardswarning.comSimon Dixon on X - https://x.com/SimonDixonTwit This one is for the people trying to make sense of the whole board at once, not just the headlines. If that's you, join us live for the next Mentor Session and drop your take on war-is-the-product vs the-dollar-is-fine in the comments. We read them. ⚡Previous Episode:Michael Howell: https://youtu.be/Tzyifqs-Bg0🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #JamesRickards #SimonDixon #Petrodollar #DollarCollapse #AIBubble #Stablecoins #CBDC #Gold #GoldVsBitcoin #DeDollarization #IranWar #Geopolitics #SelfCustody #BTCSessions

Mentor Sessions Ep 102: Rational Root breaks down Bitcoin on-chain data, the 2026 cycle bottom, ETF cost basis, the four year cycle and his macro outlook.The Bitcoin bottom looks like it's already in, and the on-chain data says this was the least retail driven cycle in history. Rational Root joins the show with a stack of charts to explain exactly why price held at $60K through the Cold Card hack, the chain split, and the biggest ETF outflows ever recorded.You'll see how the short-term holder cost basis breakout flipped the market bullish, why the ETF cost basis rejected price twice before the breakout, and how the four year spiral chart is behaving at this bottom compared to every prior cycle. You'll learn why Rational Root bought STRC at a 25% discount during the panic, what the digital credit stress test revealed, and why he thinks an all-time high could land before June 2027. You'll also get his candid macro read on AI, ISM manufacturing, interest rates, and the midterm cycle, plus why diminishing returns are likely moving forward even as the cycle keeps chugging along.This is a practical, data-first conversation for holders trying to decide whether to keep stacking or wait for a lower low that may never come.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:36 - Meet Rational Root and What's Top Of Mind1:27 - Price Action And The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breakout3:21 - Why This Bottom Looks Like Every Prior Cycle5:05 - Why We Never Got The Blow-Off Top This Cycle8:19 - The Momentum Indicator And Mild Capitulation Explained9:04 - How Institutional Buyers Dampened The Drawdown11:24 - The Four Year Spiral Chart And Diminishing Returns13:04 - Will The Spiral Chart Eventually Break?18:05 - The ETF Cost Basis And The Second Leg Up20:56 - ETF Inflows, Outflows And The Digital Credit Stress Test22:39 - The On-Chain Value Map And Fair Value25:57 - Buying STRC At A 25% Discount During The Panic28:07 - Cold Card Hack, Chain Split And Price That Wouldn't Break31:22 - How Fast Can The Recovery Come From Here?33:54 - An All-Time High Before June 2027?39:11 - Macro: ISM, The Business Cycle And Midterms45:52 - AI, Fiat And Why Bitcoin Still Matters More52:42 - What Gave Rational Root Pause This Cycle55:04 - How He Actually Feels About Bitcoin Right Now1:00:31 - Where To Find Rational Root's Charts🔗 Links & Resources:→ Follow Rational Root on X: https://x.com/therationalroot→ Rational Root Newsletter & Charts: https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinCycle #FourYearCycle #RationalRoot #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinETF #ShortTermHolder #SpiralChart #BitcoinMacro #DiminishingReturns #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AllTimeHigh #Bitcoin2027 #BitcoinPrediction

Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well🔗 Links & Resources:→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #BTC #Bitcoin100K #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #Checkonchain #OnChainData #BitcoinMarketCycle #BitcoinBullMarket #BullMarket #BearMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinETF #CostBasis #SelfCustody #Glassnode

Mentor Sessions Ep 098: Jack Mallers explains monetizing chaos, dollar debasement, the ColdCard incident, El Salvador and why Bitcoin is the most American technology.Jack Mallers argues the entire fiat system forces everyone into speculation whether they know it or not — and Bitcoin is how you take the other side of the chaos. In a wide-ranging sit-down, the Strike CEO breaks down monetizing chaos, the $40 trillion debt bill nobody wants to foot, and why he's never been more bullish.You'll hear why Jack calls debt a form of "time travel" that already spent your future, how the dollar's world-reserve status structurally forces deficits, and why a severe debasement against gold and Bitcoin may be the only mathematical exit for the US balance sheet. You'll get his blunt read on the ColdCard incident and why "open source doesn't mean secure" in the age of AI — the most incentivized person to understand that code base was the attacker. You'll also learn why he thinks 2026 was never a real bull run, why prediction markets are just regulatory arbitrage on sports betting, and what El Salvador got right (and wrong) five years in.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:48 - Why Jack Is Bullish on Bitcoin1:47 - Monetizing Chaos by Shorting Fiat2:04 - Debt as Time Travel and Future Bills4:43 - Why Public Adoption of Bitcoin Lags5:17 - Strike Growing Despite Bear Market6:21 - Why 2026 Was Not a Real Bull Run7:52 - Why Younger Generations Resist Bitcoin8:44 - Bitcoin as a Massive Wealth Transfer11:26 - Savings Culture Versus Gambling Culture13:07 - Gambling Ads, OnlyFans, and Robot Jobs17:58 - Hunger for Savings Culture Emerging18:10 - Family, Low Time Preference, and Bitcoin21:43 - Robinhood, Meme Coins, and Marginal Speculators24:23 - Prediction Markets as Sports Betting Arbitrage26:52 - Why Self-Custody Efforts Often Fail28:27 - El Salvador Bitcoin Adoption Wins and Losses34:07 - Why Nations Avoid Copying El Salvador38:06 - Bitcoin as America's Most American Tech40:17 - Dollar's Structural Deficit Trap Explained41:12 - China's Gold and Bitcoin Dollar Debasement45:49 - Why Jack Glad Clarity Act Failed47:53 - Fix: End World Reserve Currency Status49:18 - Bitcoin Not Medium of Exchange First55:20 - AI Threat to Open Source Security57:33 - Open Source Alone Does Not Secure1:02:09 - Just Use Bitcoin Core for Security1:08:37 - Jack on Leaving Twenty One and Authenticity1:14:47 - What Strike Is Building Now1:20:04 - Closing Message to BitcoinersGuest: Jack Mallers of Strike🔗 Links & Resources:- Jack Mallers on X: https://x.com/jackmallers- Strike: https://strike.me⚡Previous Episode:Zack Shapiro: https://youtu.be/iZ7e0hY0WL8🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io If this conversation gave you a new way to see the macro picture, join the regulars — subscribe for more long-form Bitcoin interviews and reply with your take on "monetizing chaos." Catch the previous episode with James Lavish and Doomberg linked in the cards.#JackMallers #Bitcoin #BTCSessions #Strike #BTC #BitcoinMacro #DollarDebasement #MonetizingChaos #SoundMoney #BitcoinBearMarket #WorldReserveCurrency #PredictionMarkets #ElSalvadorBitcoin #Coldcard #OpenSourceSecurity #BitcoinCore #LightningNetwork #SelfCustody #TwentyOne

Mentor Sessions Ep 096: Zack Shapiro explains AI existential risk, AI regulation, the Clarity Act, Samurai Wallet, and open source AI policy for Bitcoin.The Clarity Act just failed on the Senate floor, and the fight over whether writing Bitcoin code can be treated as a crime is now heading to 70-year-old federal judges. Zack Shapiro breaks down what that means for self-custody, open source software, and the Samurai Wallet developers still behind bars.In this conversation you'll learn why Zack separates AI existential risk (recursive self-improvement, the orthogonality thesis, instrumental convergence) from the ordinary risks of AI — job displacement, regulatory capture by frontier labs, and cyber attacks like the Cold Card hack. You'll see why he thinks open source AI is not the existential threat, why the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) matters more than most Bitcoiners realize, and how the 'two clocks' of AI capability vs enterprise adoption will define the next decade. You'll also get the legal reality behind white hat recovery of hacked Bitcoin, why the liquid hacker is in a bad spot, and what happened when the Clarity Act died on the vine.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:51 - Amodei, Musk and Altman urge AI slowdown1:38 - Ordinary risks versus existential AI threats2:26 - Politics warping the AI safety debate3:20 - Bostrom, AGI and intelligence explosion risks5:01 - Orthogonality thesis and instrumental convergence5:59 - Hugging Face attack shows AI covering tracks6:58 - No easy policy fixes for AI risks8:08 - Can't stop AI progress or open source China9:32 - Separating x-risk concerns from anti-AI populism12:22 - Regulatory capture and Anthropic IPO timing14:21 - Keeping open source AI legal and available16:39 - Trezor self-custody sponsor read17:43 - One shot parallel between Bitcoin and AI19:37 - Where real AI productivity gains appear20:47 - Two Clocks: capability versus enterprise adoption24:22 - Is AI coming for your job?25:28 - Electrification analogy and 30-year lag28:34 - Jevons Paradox and future of work30:42 - White hat recovery of Cold Card hacked funds34:02 - Legal precedent for white hat bounties36:56 - Why the Liquid hacker faces trouble38:55 - What's actually in the Clarity Act43:46 - Money transmitter law and the Samurai case45:20 - Tornado Cash, FinCEN and frying pan argument47:31 - Why this could ban using Bitcoin49:33 - BRCA criminal protections and court battles53:42 - Clarity Act fails to pass what happened55:24 - Senator Lummis stood on principle56:50 - Where to follow Zack ShapiroGuest: Zack Shapiro — lawyer and AI-native law firm builder covering crypto policy, AI regulation, and Bitcoin legal defense.🔗 Links & Resources:- Zack Shapiro on X: https://x.com/zackbshapiro⚡Previous Episode:Bob Burnett and Nacho Pauls of Ocean: https://youtu.be/1-lvwj4DcJsBrent Johnson: https://youtu.be/UoIwpsOB9O0🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #ZackShapiro #ClarityAct #BRCA #SelfCustody #SamuraiWallet #ColdCardHack #AIRegulation #AISafety #OpenSourceAI #Superintelligence #BitcoinPolicy #BlackRock

Mentor Sessions Ep. 084: James Check and Joe Consorti analyze the Bitcoin market bottom, on-chain data, the AI bubble, and Strategy's sale in this 2026 macro breakdown.The Bitcoin bottom isn't confirmed — but James Check and Joe Consorti lay out exactly why $45K would break every precedent in Bitcoin's history and why 90% of the time price only goes higher from here.In this deep-dive conversation you'll learn why the market has entered what James calls the "time pain" chapter, how the AI bubble rotation could hand Bitcoin its bottom, and why Strategy's massive sale quietly killed one of Bitcoin's biggest pieces of FUD. You'll see the on-chain data behind long-term holders now sitting on 84% of supply, the 8-model study James ran to estimate when the bottom ends, and a concrete framework for DCA during downturns instead of chasing wicks. Joe breaks down the macro backdrop — oil, the 10-year Treasury at 4.7%, a hawkish Fed, and why the AI trade unwinding sets up a renewed risk-on environment.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:16 - James Argues Bitcoin Bottom Not In2:31 - 45K Drop Matching 2015 Bear Market3:39 - Why Bears Anchor to Round Numbers4:27 - Self-Reinforcing Bearishness at Lows5:34 - Joe on Bitcoin Resilience to News6:17 - 79 Percent Drawdown Breaks Precedent7:22 - Inflation Scare and Oil Price Swings8:32 - Bitcoin Holds Amid Hawkish Fed10:10 - February Capitulation and Loss Spike11:47 - Bottoms Form on Malaise Not Vibes13:06 - 200-Week Moving Average as Support13:55 - Eight-Model Study on Bear Market End15:59 - Joe on AI Trade Unwinding in Q417:32 - Bitcoin Led Market Lower This Cycle19:35 - Iran Conflict Oil and Commodity Thesis23:04 - Financial Nihilism and Rotating Capital26:00 - Treasury Yields Housing and Inflation30:31 - Boomers Mortgage Rates and Housing Shortage33:07 - Australia's Housing Bubble Breaking39:04 - On-Chain Data and Sentiment Washout43:34 - Joe on Fear Greed and Next Narrative47:43 - Blood in Streets Time to Accumulate48:53 - Mean Reversion Index and DCA Plan52:17 - Strategy Sale and Fading FUD58:56 - Manage Your Own Emotions1:01:38 - Where to Follow James and JoeJames Check publishes on Substack (Checkonchain) and Joe Consorti runs his own YouTube channel and research — links below.🔗 Links & Resources:→ James Check (Checkonchain): https://www.checkonchain.com/→ Joe Consorti: https://www.joeconsorti.com/→ Book a 1-on-1 with a Bitcoin educator: BTCMentor.io💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Benn and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io 📌 Previous Episodes: Bob Burnett → https://youtu.be/k4rtC3oQqlk⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #JoeConsorti #BitcoinBottom #OnChainData #BitcoinMacro #DCA #MarketCycles #Checkonchain #BitcoinAnalysis #AIBubble #200WeekMovingAverage #Crypto #BitcoinNews #OnChain #HODL #BitcoinPrice #CryptoAnalysis #BearMarket #BitcoinCycle #LongTermHolders #BitcoinETF #Macro #AITrade #MichaelSaylor #Strategy #BitcoinInvesting #CryptoMarket #StackSats #SellerExhaustion #BitcoinSentiment